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  银行股股价屡创新高。

  4月24日,银行股震荡走强。截至收盘,齐鲁银行领涨,涨幅达3.11%,厦门银行、渝农商行等涨幅超2%,工商银行、农业银行、中国银行A股股价续创历史新高。

  其中,工行报7.24元/股,涨1.83%;农行报5.59元/股,涨2.01%;中行报5.83元/股,涨2.10%。

  作为顺周期板块,银行股近来备受关注。近段时间,国有大行新一轮注资计划正稳步推进,多家银行披露估值提升计划及“提质增效重回报”行动方案。与此同时,当下正值银行一季报披露季,从数家已披露今年一季报的银行来看,整体表现较为稳健,对实体经济的支持力度不断加强。

  东方证券研报认为,当前进入稳增长政策密集落地期,宽货币先行,宽财政紧随,地方化债显著提速,对2025年银行基本面产生深刻影响;财政政策力度加码,支撑社融信贷并提振经济预期,顺周期品种有望受益;广谱利率下行区间,银行净息差短期承压,但高息存款进入集中重定价周期叠加监管对高息揽存行为持续整治,对2025年银行息差形成重要呵护;2025年是银行资产质量夯实之年,政策托底下,房地产、城投资产风险预期有望显著改善,风险暴露和处置较为充分的部分个贷品种也有望迎来资产质量拐点。

  来源:国际金融报

  近日,燕京啤酒(000729.SZ)披露2024年年报。

  2024年,燕京啤酒实现啤酒销量400.44万千升,同比增长1.57%;营业收入为146.67亿元,同比增长3.2%;归母净利润首次突破10亿元,达10.56亿元,同比增长63.74%。

  交出营利双增答卷,董事会提议,以公司现有总股本为基数,每10股派发现金股利1.9元(含税),共计5.54亿元,现金分红占当年归母净利润的50.73%。

  这看似亮眼的业绩背后,并非没有隐忧。

  燕京啤酒四季度亏损问题仍未得到妥善解决。去年第四季度,公司净利润-1.9亿元,亏损收窄36.76%。最近十年,其四季度持续亏损,主要由于冬季啤酒消费不旺,收入均较三季度大幅下滑,但部分开支无法缩减,导致入不敷出。

  同时,燕京啤酒近两年营收增速已有放缓趋势。2022年—2024年,公司营收分别为132.02亿元、142.13亿元、146.67亿元,对应增速10.38%、7.66%、3.2%,按年下滑。

  从大环境来看,这与啤酒行业疲软有关。国家统计局数据显示,2024年中国规模以上企业累计啤酒产量同比下滑0.6%;另据中国食品饮料工业协会数据,2024年啤酒行业营收减少了5.7%,成为食品饮料行业中唯一下滑的品类。

  行业进入存量竞争,高端化成为啤酒厂商的努力方向。

  燕京啤酒的高端化进程本就稍晚一些,近些年主要围绕核心大单品燕京U8,推动产品结构高端化和全国化。

  孙婉秋摄

  分产品线来看,2024年,公司中高档产品实现收入88.65亿元,同比增长2.15%,相比上年13.32%的增速已有明显放缓;占总营收的比重为67.01%,较上年的66.26%提升不足1个百分点。普通产品则实现收入43.65亿元,同比下降1.24%。

  以大单品燕京U8来看,2024年,该产品销量69.6万千升,同比增长31.4%,而2023年增速为超36%,2022年为超50%。这一明星单品的增速也在放缓。

  此前有媒体报道,根据燕京啤酒“十四五”规划,U8将冲刺百万千升目标。今年便是收官之年,若要达成目标,产品销量增速需在43.7%以上,压力不小。

  高端化增速放缓,公司对华北地区的依赖度也在加深。

  燕京啤酒在“大本营”北京及周边市场有较高的知名度和市场占有率,2024年,华北地区贡献了78.31亿元、53.4%的营收,较上年52.28%的贡献度进一步提升,而2019年该占比还停留在45.55%;其次是华南地区,凭借漓泉啤酒等品牌,销售38.48亿元,同比增长0.28%,占比26.23%;华东、华中、西北地区分别贡献13.38亿元、10.88亿元、5.62亿元,其中西北地区收入同比下滑12.52%。

  近些年,燕京啤酒虽在高端化道路上不断发力,但相比同行,其盈利能力依然垫底。

  制表:左宇

  中国啤酒市场中,华润啤酒、青岛啤酒、燕京啤酒、重庆啤酒、百威亚太这五家上市公司占据大部分份额,2024年,五家公司毛利率依次为42.64%、40.23%、40.72%、48.57%、50.38%,燕京啤酒排倒数第二。若以更能综合反映企业真实盈利能力的净利率来看,其已经垫底,仅9.03%,其余四家均在12%以上。

  当前啤酒市场疲软,燕京啤酒也将目光投向了茶饮料板块。

  2024年,茶饮料业务是公司收入增幅最大的,贡献了1.06亿元,同比增长48.43%,但由于占比不足1%,对整体业绩助力有限。

  去年底,其推出新品倍斯特汽水,并在今年成都春糖会期间启动全国招商活动。燕京啤酒表示,倍斯特汽水不仅是简单的品类延伸,更是品牌扩张、发展增长点的重要战略部署,也是公司首款全国饮料大单品。

  但对于这一决策,市场看法好坏参半。有业内人士指出,啤酒和饮料的销售渠道、消费、销售方式均存在差别,定位不一样,“饮料行业看重品牌,重视品质,新品想要取得认可较为困难”。

  此外,啤酒与饮料的毛利率也相差较大。2024年,燕京啤酒的啤酒业务毛利率为42.61%,茶饮料业务不足19%,若持续加码茶饮料,未来或会拉低公司整体毛利水平。

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