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  自金融危机以来,美国企业界在财报电话会议上对经济状况的看法从未如此悲观,对于试图判断唐纳德·特朗普贸易战将对股票市场造成多少冲击的投资者而言,这是一个不祥的信号。

  根据美国银行对本轮财报季前期电话会议的分析,本季度财报季中对宏观经济状况的正面与负面评论之比已远低于平均水平,并势将创下2009年以来的最差水平。 

  财报季通常对股票市场利好,但鉴于标普500指数已从2月的历史高点下跌近15%,投资者正为特朗普试图改写全球贸易规则带来的后果做准备,此次财报季的风险之高前所未有。对于汽车制造商和运输业等利润与经济形势变化更为密切相关的公司来说尤其如此。

  一些高管难以衡量白宫快速转变的政策对其业务的影响。这给美国股票市场带来了进一步的压力,近日由于经济衰退风险和特朗普关税导致通胀回升的风险上升,美国股票市场有重新跌入熊市的危险。

  “几乎每家企业的首席执行官都在下调预测,”资深市场策略师JimPaulsen表示。“企业部门的评论警告已经加码。”

  阿斯麦控股警告称,不知道如何量化可能颠覆半导体行业的关税消息的影响。达美航空因围绕全球贸易的不确定性而撤回了全年财务指引,金佰利公司以贸易战对其成本的影响为由下调了全年利润预期。

  下调指引

  数据显示,当前季度迄今标普500指数中27%的公司下调了对2025年业绩的指引,只有9%上调了展望。

  花旗汇编数据显示,汽车制造商的预期最为悲观,他们在4月将未来12个月盈利预期平均下调了9%左右。另一方面,生产食品和消费必需品的公司在经济衰退期间往往表现更好,这些公司最为乐观,将他们的预测上调了1%以上。

  花旗的交易策略团队称,下调业绩指引的公司正因此受到市场惩罚,而超出预期业绩的公司仅获得有限回报。根据该行数据,下调预期的公司次日平均下跌4.8%,而维持或上调预期的公司则平均上涨1%。

  美国银行预测,随着企业纷纷避免提供业绩指引,市场可能出现“潜在的信息真空”,与Covid-19疫情期间的情况如出一辙。

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