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傅时庭秦安安:那些年我们追逐的明星与绯闻
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  美国国债周五午后走高,连续第二周上涨,几乎收复了本月的失地,迹象显示特朗普政府正在采取措施缓和贸易紧张局势。

  截至纽约时间下午3点后不久,美国国债收益率全线下跌多达5个基点,收益率收于日间低点附近。

  本周美债上涨的同时,美元和美股也反弹,在特朗普4月2日宣布“对等关税”后主导华尔街的“卖出美国”情绪势头减弱。美国政府已暂停部分关税并暗示可能寻求缓和。

  一些投资者对追涨较长期美债仍持谨慎态度。30年期美债周五一度削减涨幅,受部分交易员大量抛售6月到期的超长期国债期货影响。

  美国银行策略师预计较长期债券将继续跑输,这反映出对经济增长放缓和通胀上升的预期以及对供需状况的担忧。MarkCabana等策略师本周调整了年末收益率预测。他们把对2025年底30年期国债收益率的预测从4.8%上调至4.9%,并把对年底2年期国债收益率的预测从4%下调至3.75%。

  摩根资产管理全球固定收益主管BobMichele说美联储关于降息可能性的言论是推动债券市场回升的因素之一。他指出,杠杆债券交易的平仓已经基本结束,同时特朗普政府在贸易冲突方面有所缓和,这两点也对债市形成了支撑。

  Michele表示,“所有这些因素带来了平静,现在促使债券市场转向。”

  截至纽约时间下午3:03,2年期国债收益率下跌3.9个基点,报3.7582%;

  5年期国债收益率下跌5.4个基点,报3.8819%;

  10年期国债收益率下跌5.1个基点,报4.2643%;

  30年期国债收益率下跌4.2个基点,报4.7338%;

  5年和30年期国债收益率差上升约1.2个基点,报85.01个基点;

  2年和10年期国债收益率差下降约1.2个基点,报50个基点。

  美联储在周五发布的报告中指出了与股票和房地产估值相关的风险,表示尽管有些市场本月早些时候下跌,但资产价格仍明显高企。

  “即使在近期下跌之后,目前股价相较于盈利预测仍显偏高,分析师调整盈利预测的速度慢于市场价格。各期限美国国债收益率仍处于2008年以来的较高水平。”

  美联储还在《金融稳定报告》强调了该领域的杠杆问题,指出融资风险令人担忧,但也表示,融资市场在4月初的波动中保持坚韧。该报告反映了截至4月11日的市况和数据。

  这份报告不是预测性报告,其指出,对一些银行而言,固定利率资产的公允价值损失规模仍比较大,继续对利率变化高度敏感。

  央行的市场、研究和学术界联系渠道还提及围绕全球贸易的担忧上升。他们还提及有关政策不确定性和美国债务可持续性的风险。

  “一些受访者还把持续的通胀和资产市场回调视为突出风险,”报告称。美联储指出,这些反馈大多是在4月2日之前收到。

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