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小小宫女很极品|的用户增长趋势与市场影响力分析
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澳门特别行政区

国外

1.杰富瑞:将标普500年底目标从6000点下调至5300点

杰富瑞集团表示,美国公司盈利前景黯淡意味着标普500指数今年收盘时可能会走低。杰富瑞的量化策略主管DeshPeramunetilleke周二在给客户的一份报告中称,该公司将标普500指数的目标点位从6000点下调至5300点。

2.贝莱德:美股短期承压,但长期仍具吸引力

贝莱德投资研究所策略师在一份报告中称,美国股市短期内可能继续承压,但长期来看仍具有吸引力,因它们将受益于人工智能的发展、稳健的企业盈利以及迄今为止强劲的美国经济。政策的不确定性可能会在短期内拖累经济增长和股市。然而,我们认为美国股市可以重新获得全球领导地位。尽管如此,预计风险资产的波动性目前仍将持续,资产价格可能出现“急剧逆转”。

3.三菱日联:英镑兑欧元可能继续表现不佳

三菱日联分析师德里克·哈尔潘尼在一份报告中说,由于周一英国公布了疲软的就业数据,加之人们对德国的财政支出计划持乐观态度,英镑兑欧元可能会继续近期的表现不佳。英国3月份就业人数减少了7.8万人,这是自2020年初新冠疫情以来的最大降幅。在此之前,3月份的另一项调查显示,劳动力供应出现了自2020年12月以来的最大增幅。他说,这项调查和就业数据将缓解英国央行内部对工资粘性增长的担忧,并为进一步逐步降息铺平道路。

4.摩根士丹利:下调韩国今年经济增长预期至1%

据韩联社报道,摩根士丹利16日发布一份报告,将韩国今年经济增长预期下调至1%。报告指出,考虑到当前的关税混乱局面、主要经济体增长预期被下调等因素,将韩国2025—2026年国内生产总值(GDP)增长预期再下调0.2个百分点至1%。报告指出,预计韩国面临的关税不确定性将持续增加,给韩国出口造成冲击。加上美国下周有可能宣布对半导体开征至少25%的关税,或令韩国经济“雪上加霜”。另外,摩根士丹利预测韩国明年的经济增速将为1.4%。

国内

1.中金:上调原油过剩预期,下调油价预期

中金研报称,需求预期承压之际,OPEC+决定在5月加速增产,超出市场预期,我们认为或受到政治和地缘等外部因素的影响,并将加剧石油市场过剩压力。高频数据显示,3月以来美国石油活跃钻机数开始下降,北美页岩油的成本考验可能已经到来。结合年初以来基本面变化,我们上调全年石油供需过剩预期至67万桶/天,下调布伦特油价年中枢至70美元/桶,2-4季度中枢分别为67.5、72.5、65.0美元/桶。此外,风险情形下,若贸易摩擦下全球经济增长进一步承压,或为油价带来约5美元/桶的额外下跌空间。

2.中信证券:自主可控升级,国产科学仪器迎来战略机遇

信证券研报称,在美国出口管制与关税不断加码的背景下,国产科学仪器面临供应链、技术“双脱钩”局面,倒逼全产业链自主可控升级,行业发展迎来重大战略机遇。我国科学仪器国产化率较低,但头部厂商在其优势领域已经具备了全球竞争力,判断细分龙头将继续巩固优势产品地位,并逐步横向拓展产品矩阵,充分受益于本次国产替代浪潮。

3.中信建投:当前稀土板块攻守兼备,建议积极关注

中信建投研报称,近日两部委发布对钐、钆、铽、镝、镥、钪、钇等7类中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制措施的公告,下游在出口管制政策和终端需求释放的双重驱动下表现强劲,采购活跃度提升,推动价格小幅上扬。特朗普关税政策激进,中国具备全球约70%稀土矿、约90%稀土冶炼分离和约90%稀土磁材产能,产业链完备、自主可控能力强,政策端出台生产、出口的双重管制,对美关税政策具备较强反制能力。需求端,稀土磁材是高性能、节能电机必备材料,人形机器人单台用稀土永磁超2kg,不亚于一辆新能源汽车用量,马斯克预计未来人形机器人需求将达到百亿台级别,对稀土磁材用量将远超新能源汽车需求,远景空间非常广阔。当前稀土板块攻守兼备,建议积极关注。

4.中信证券:BC电池产能扩张有望提速

中信证券研报表示,工艺技术问题的解决和终端需求的增加有望推动BC电池产能扩张提速。隆基绿能近日召开BC2.0发布会,发布了全面升级的Hi-MO9组件,公司表示有望实现24.8%的组件量产效率和670W的综合功率,相比于TOPCon组件分别提升1.5%和40W,将提升8-11%发电量并降低BOS成本11-22分/W。我们认为BC作为最具应用前景的下一代光伏技术,产业化春风已至。头部BC电池组件企业正加速产能布局,2025年BC有望迎来从1到10的快速放量,建议关注电池组件、设备和辅材端的投资机会。

5.国金证券:政策显“扩内需”决心,关注两大方向

国金证券指出,内需消费改善核心在提升居民可支配收入,路径包括等企业“盈利底”、财政发力释放居民储蓄、加大补贴力度。构建消费投资框架,挖掘“真消费资产”。方向一围绕新消费,选“政策支持+产业景气加速+透支久期适度”行业,如银发经济等;方向二围绕政策布局传统消费,选“增长型红利”行业,如母婴消费等,各方向均有首选和次选行业。

6.中信建投:中期维度仍不可轻言抄底美债

中信建投研报称,近期美国资产大幅波动,股债汇三杀。这是一次流动性引发的美债风暴。随着关税豁免期落地、日本财务大臣和美联储官员表态,美债风暴暂缓。此次风暴背后隐藏着市场担忧:关税博弈是否引发金融博弈。本轮关税大博弈或将重构当前全球经贸规则,全球供需格局、生产供应链、金融稳定性、美元潮汐面临诸多不确定性。之前关税摩擦牵引全球资产定价,风险仅局限于需求;本轮关税大博弈牵引的资产定价,隐含另一层流动性风险。据测算,若本轮关税最终严格按照4月2日政策执行(豁免期后),除非油价降至历史低位,否则美国大概率迎来通胀上行。此外,美国或将启动一轮减税,债务上限提高。美债供给增加,叠加压不下的通胀,中期维度仍不可轻言抄底美债。

7.银河证券:货币政策适度宽松状态延续,降准降息预期增强

4月16日,银河证券发布最新分析报告指出,中国央行公布的2025年3月金融数据显示,社融信贷增长超出预期,资金活化程度有所提高。政府债券继续发挥重要作用,支撑社融增长。在此背景下,货币政策的适度宽松状态预计将持续,降准降息预期随之增强。银河证券强调,当前货币政策的适度宽松状态对金融市场产生积极影响,有助于提升市场信心,促进经济增长。大型银行增资行为将为银行业发展提供有力支持,进一步提升银行信贷投放和资产质量。

小小宫女很极品|的用户增长趋势与市场影响力分析的相关文章 “站在亚洲实现整体振兴的新起点上”——习近平主席对越南、马来西亚、柬埔寨进行国事访问纪实的相关文章
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