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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82
爹爹的期待:助你精准把握投资时机
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爹爹的期待:助你精准把握投资时机

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  随着美国债市在本月稍早大幅抛售后有所回暖,截至4月19日当周,日本投资者转为海外债券净买入方,结束了此前连续六周的净卖出态势。

  受美国贸易关税政策及特朗普政府经济政策影响,日本投资者此前加入全球撤离美元资产行列,已连续六周净卖出海外债券。

  日本财务省数据显示,当周日本投资者净购入价值2237亿日元(15.7亿美元)的长期外国债券,这是自2月底以来首次实现单周净买入。

  受对冲基金解除杠杆基差交易头寸、海外投资者出于关税报复抛售美债,以及市场对美国资产避险属性质疑加剧等因素影响,本月美债遭遇抛售潮,推动国债收益率持续攀升。数据显示,日本投资者目前持有约1.13万亿美元美国国债,系美债最大持有国。

  与此同时,受避险需求推动及对日本央行或延迟加息以支撑经济的预期影响,海外投资者持续增持日本资产。数据显示,过去三周外资累计向日本债市注入11.95万亿日元,同期日本股票市场获得3.7万亿日元外资流入。

  近日,通润装备(维权)公告,盎泰电源2023年和2024年累计完成净利润约1.84亿元,未达承诺的2.02亿元。根据《重大资产购买协议》约定,补偿义务主体正泰电器需要补偿现金3909.95万元、上海绰峰需要补偿现金139.45万元、上海挚者需要补偿现金446.25万元。

  通润装备表示,由于储能系统业务多为项目制、收入确认连贯性存在波动,同时受储能产品价格下降超过预期影响,标的公司2024年储能系统实现收入略有下降。

  盎泰电源主营光伏逆变器和储能产品制造业务,其主要产品包括光储逆变器、储能系统等。2023年,通润装备以8.4亿元收购正泰电器旗下光伏逆变器资产盎泰电源,试图借势新能源赛道实现业务转型。

  通润装备收购盎泰电源后,迅速启动17亿元定增计划,拟扩建18GW光伏逆变器及5GWh储能产能,但该项目因“市场环境变化”于2024年11月终止。

  募资失败直接导致公司资金链承压。财报显示,2025年一季度,公司经营现金流净额-0.70亿,同比延续净流出趋势,与同期0.18亿元净利润形成显著背离。

  此外,收购盎泰电源时通润装备资产负债率从17.91%飙升至56.87%,2025年一季度末负债率仍在56%以上,负债总额攀升至27.73亿元,债务压力延续。

  公司曾试图通过关联方正泰财务公司缓解流动性,却因信披违规遭深交所监管警示,融资渠道受限。

  收购盎泰电源时,通润装备确认商誉2.21亿元,占交易对价的26.3%。标的公司2024年业绩未达承诺,且其核心资产正泰电源的光伏逆变器产能利用率长期不足,2023年最高仅80.24%,储能系统产能利用率更低于32%。叠加光伏行业2024年全产业链价格下行,逆变器毛利率较收购时预测值下降5个百分点,未来业绩修复难度陡增。

  若2025年业绩承诺继续落空,商誉减值将直接侵蚀净利润。参考行业案例,阳光电源等龙头企业的逆变器业务毛利率亦缩水至25%以下,通润装备的高商誉面临重估压力。

  通润装备的困境折射出光伏行业盲目扩张的后遗症。2024年,光伏融资规模同比缩减56%,超15家企业终止或延期募资计划,产能过剩与价格战已成行业常态。即便如通润装备般押注“尚能盈利”的逆变器赛道,亦难逃市场需求放缓与技术迭代的双重冲击。

  分析机构指出,2025年全球光伏装机增速或降至15%,而中国逆变器产能过剩率将突破40%,行业洗牌在所难免。通润装备若无法通过资源整合提升正泰电源的海外渠道竞争力,恐沦为新一轮出清的对象。

  通润装备的案例为跨界新能源的企业敲响警钟,资本腾挪虽可短期提振估值,但缺乏核心技术壁垒与市场把控力的扩张,终将面临业绩反噬。眼下,公司亟需收缩战线、优化资产结构,同时加速光储业务协同,方能在行业寒冬中寻得一线生机。

  注:本文创作借助AI工具收集整理市场数据和行业信息,结合辅助观点分析和撰写成文。

  4月24日,据媒体报道,截至4月23日,已经有36家银行披露了分红计划,分红总额为6161.26亿元,这其中包括去年超2300亿元的中期分红。

  此外,六大行年报数据显示,其年度分红总额再创新高,突破4200亿元。

  从具体分红金额看,工商银行以1097.73亿元连续领跑;建设银行紧随其后达1007.54亿元,农业银行846.61亿元、中国银行713.6亿元分列三、四位。交通银行和邮储银行分别派现281.46亿元和259.41亿元。六家银行合计分红额占银行业总分红比重显著,龙头效应愈发凸显。

  招行以504亿分红规模占据股份行鳌头。此外,招行银行董事会已审议通过了《关于2025年度中期利润分配计划的议案》,拟在2025年进行中期分红,这将是该行首次进行中期分红。

  兴业银行分红总额达到220.21亿元,分红比例首次突破30%,显示出强劲的发展势头。中信银行、浦发银行、平安银行和光大银行的分红总额也均超过百亿元。

  此外,宁波银行分红金额同比增长50%,达到59.43亿元;杭州银行分红金额39.87亿元,同比增长29.28%;郑州银行分红金额1.82亿元,分红比例9.69%,是该行时隔四年的首次分红;渝农商行分红金额34.59亿元,分红比例超30%;沪农商行此前已进行2024年中期分红,分红金额23.05亿元

  据证监会2024年11月发布的《上市公司监管指引第10号——市值管理》,长期破净(股价连续12个月低于每股净资产)的上市公司需制定并披露估值提升计划。

  近期,多家上市银行集中发布了估值提升计划,截至2025年3月底,A股42家上市银行中41家处于破净状态,这成为推动银行发布估值提升计划的直接原因。银行的估值提升计划主要围绕稳定分红、股东增持、风险管理、业务转型和投资者关系管理展开。

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