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嘉峪关市

财联社4月26日讯(编辑潇湘)特朗普可能又创下了一个“尴尬”的“百日执政”新纪录……

根据可追溯至尼克松时代(当时美国放弃金本位制、转向自由浮动汇率时期)的数据显示,美元指数有望创下半个多世纪以来美国总统任期头100天的最差表现。

统计显示,从1月20日特朗普重返白宫到4月25日,美元指数已累计下跌了近9%,料将创下1973年(尼克松开启第二任期之年)以来总统任期前100天的最大跌幅。

近几十年来,在美国总统上任的头100天,外汇市场上一直以美元走强为典型标志,从1973年尼克松开始第二个任期到2021年拜登上任,总统执政头百天的美元平均回报率接近了0.9%。

但在今年,特朗普显然成为了美元多头的噩梦——其反复无常的关税政策和对美联储独立性的恐吓威胁,促使投资者大量抛售美元资产,在加剧美元跌势同时也推高了黄金及其他非美货币汇率。

自特朗普再次就任以来,欧元、瑞郎和日元兑美元汇率涨幅均超过了8%。

事实上,回顾过去50多年的历史,美元在总统任期头百天跌幅,与眼下最为接近的可能就是1973年的“尼克松冲击”之时。

1971年8月,美国尼克松政府宣布放弃“金本位制”,实行黄金与美元比价的自由浮动之后,布雷顿森林体系正式解体。1973年3月因美元贬值,再次引发了欧洲抛售美元、抢购黄金的风潮。西欧和日本外汇市场不得不关闭了17天。经过磋商最后达成协议,西方国家最终放弃了固定汇率制,实行浮动汇率制。至此布雷顿森林货币体系完全崩溃,从此也开始了黄金非货币化的改革进程。

而近来全球抛售美元资产以及抢购黄金的浪潮,与当时显然也有颇多异曲同工之处。

蒙特利尔银行资产管理公司董事总经理BipanRai指出,美元作为全球储备货币的地位建立在对美国制度的信任、低贸易壁垒和可预测的外交政策之上。而如今,这些基础已出现明显松动,全球资产配置趋势正发生不利于美元的结构性转变。

特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的评论——尤其是他威胁要解雇鲍威尔,近来也格外让投资者感到忧心,并加剧了对美联储独立性的担忧。即便特朗普本周态度已有所软化称,他无意解雇鲍威尔。

瑞银集团目前已经在不到两个月的时间里第二次下调了美元预期。该行分析师表示,美元的表现取决于中美贸易谈判的结果,而最近几周的贸易对峙显然没有取得太大进展。德意志银行本周也警告称,未来几年美元将出现结构性下跌趋势,这可能会使美元兑欧元跌至十多年来的最弱水平。

根据美国商品期货交易委员会数据,截至4月15日当周,对冲基金和资管机构持有的美元净空头头寸达100亿美元,创2024年10月以来最大看空规模。上述机构投机者正集体押注于美元将继续贬值。

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