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  A股持续反弹。

  近期A股市场持续反弹,今天早盘上证指数站上3280点上方,科创50指数和北证50指数均收复4月7日大跌失地。不过和清明节之前的行情相比,市场风格已经发生较大变化,内需、红利、关税反制、自主可控等题材轮番走强,其中代表内需题材的商贸零售指数节后累计大涨逾4%,代表红利板块的银行指数逆市上涨,代表关税反制的农林牧渔板块大涨2.69%,代表自主可控的半导体、航空装备等板块也逆市上涨。

  今天早盘相关题材继续有亮眼表现,内需题材的房地产指数、家居用品等板块涨幅居前,自主可控的半导体、软件服务等板块均大涨超1%。

  概念板块方面,光刻胶概念涨幅位居第一位,上午收盘涨超4%;另外MCU芯片、汽车芯片等自主可控题材涨幅居前。

  华为芯片概念龙头直线涨停

  光刻胶概念掀起涨停潮,怡达股份“20cm”涨停,宝丽迪、康鹏科技涨超14%,华软科技、红宝丽、兴业股份等多只个股涨停。‌

  光刻机是自主可控的典型代表‌,主要体现在其核心技术和零部件的自主研发和生产上。近年来,中国在光刻机领域的进展显著,实现了90%核心零部件的自主可控。

  芯片也是自主可控的主战场。早盘相关概念板块涨超1%。个股方面,宏昌电子、渤海化学、海陆重工(维权)等多股涨停。另外,华为算力芯片概念龙头拓维信息直线飙升,不到10点即封上涨停。

  消息面上,当地时间4月15日,美国芯片制造商英伟达发布通知,称美国政府于9日告知该公司H20芯片出口到中国需要许可证,并于14日告知这些规定将无限期实施。这一新规将影响英伟达约55亿美元的季度费用,涉及H20的库存、采购承诺和相关储备。

  值得一提的是,这可能是特朗普政府近期频频变卦又一事件。就在禁令发布前不到一周,据美国全国公共广播电台周三报道,在英伟达公司首席执行官黄仁勋上周出席了玛拉歌晚宴之后,特朗普政府改变了限制出口英伟达H20人工智能芯片的计划。美国对芯片出口管制的计划已经酝酿了几个月,最快本周就可以实施。计划的改变是在英伟达向特朗普政府承诺美国将在人工智能数据中心进行新的投资之后发生的。

  机构建议关注国产算力机遇

  万联证券表示,此次美国政府对H20进行许可证管理,表明贸易管制力度加大。该机构认为H20在中国市场的销售或将面临较大限制。同时,英伟达预计第一季度业绩包括与H20产品相关的库存、采购承诺及相关储备费用约55亿美元,贸易管制或导致英伟达在中国市场份额有所流失,国内AI芯片厂商有望承接更多市场份额。

  特朗普在美国“解放日”向全球贸易“宣战”,中国迅速连环反制底气十足。今时不同往日,我国经济内力已较上一轮贸易摩擦有明显提升,内核稳定或许是最好的反制。未来稳增长政策有望进一步加码,超常规力度扩大消费或首当其冲,货币宽松预期升温,财政发力可能更为前倾,地产增量政策窗口也有望打开。

  基于对潜在应对手段的情景假设,浙商证券建议关注三条主线:自主可控+产业趋势(半导体、AI、稀土、军工等)、提振内需+增长转型(两新、服务消费、生育等)、防御属性+稳定分红(红利)。

  关税反制与自主可控股票池曝光

  浙商证券基于科技、消费、防御三个大类筛选了“关税反制与自主可控股票池”,该股票池仅作为一种选股思路供投资者参考,不代表推荐相关个股。

  从行业分布来看,电子行业有多达16只个股,国防军工有8只个股,食品饮料、计算机、公用事业等板块也上榜了多只个股。

  从市值角度来看,长江电力、中芯国际、中信银行等10多只个股市值超过千亿元。其中长江电力、中信银行等立足防御,中芯国际、海光信息、寒武纪-U等则隶属于自主可控,伊利股份、中国中免等属于消费板块。市值较低的个股主要有光明乳业、豪悦护理、臻镭科技等,均不足百亿元。

  自主可控题材股票成长性更优。其中,中芯国际、海光信息、寒武纪等个股机构一致预测今明两年净利增速均超20%。

  防御属性个股的估值更低。其中,江苏银行、中信银行等个股市盈率均低于6倍,华能国际市盈率低于12倍。

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