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专题:市场缩量分化A股热点轮动或将延续

  A股市场进入一季报业绩密集期披露。截至4月15日,已有267家上市公司发布一季度业绩预告或一季报,其中243家公司业绩同比向好,占比逾九成。宁德时代、国泰海通、中远海控、紫金矿业、比亚迪等多家行业龙头公司实现“开门红”。农林牧渔板块则大幅扭亏为盈,养猪龙头牧原股份归母净利超40亿元。

  5家公司净利润超100亿元

  据证券时报·数据宝统计,截至4月15日,267家已发布第一季度相关报告公司中,5家公司净利润超过100亿元(业绩预告取中值,下同),依次为宁德时代、中国人保、国泰海通、中远海控和紫金矿业。宁德时代盈利规模暂居榜首,为139.63亿元;国泰海通净利润实现翻倍,同比增幅375%。

  宁德时代净利润增速远超营收增速,一季度实现营业收入847.05亿元,同比增长6.18%;归母净利润139.63亿元,同比增长32.85%;扣非净利润118.29亿元,同比增长27.92%。公司经营活动现金流也表现亮眼,流量净额为328.68亿元,同比增长15.91%。

  宁德时代一季度电池销量超过120GWh,同比增长超过30%,其中储能销量占比接近20%。公司一季度销售净利率达到17.5%,创近期新高。宁德时代近日回复投资者称,美国业务占公司出货比重较小,且公司已根据环境变化提前做了预案,关税政策对公司业绩影响较小,公司正在与客户积极协商解决方案。整体而言,中国及海外市场需求旺盛,目前公司产能利用率比较饱和。

  国泰海通预计一季度实现归母净利润112.01亿元至124.45亿元,同比增加350%至400%;扣非净利润29.73亿元至33.83亿元,同比增加45%至65%。

  一季度,国泰海通主动把握市场机遇,全面推进零售、机构和企业三大客户服务体系建设,推进各项业务稳步发展,取得较好经营业绩。公司归母净利润增长的主要原因为吸收合并产生负商誉;扣非净利润增长的主要原因为公司持续提升主营业务竞争力,财富管理、交易投资等业务均实现较大幅度增长。

  7家公司净利润增超10倍

  从净利润变动来看,有研新材同比增速暂时居首,高达147.23倍;锐捷网络同比增长47.27倍,暂列第二;其他大幅增长的还有广大特材、郴电国际、四川双马、保变电气、中船防务,增速均超过10倍。

  有研新材预计一季度实现归母净利润6000万元到7500万元,同比增长13076%到16370%。公司一季度业绩预增,一方面是公司降低了对控股子公司有研稀土的持股比例,致使归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比减亏超过3000万元;二是全资子公司有研亿金靶材产销量同比明显增长,带动归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比增长超过3000万元。

  锐捷网络预计一季度实现归母净利润9800万元至12500万元,同比增长4142.15%至5310.90%。对于业绩预增原因,公司方面表示,在AI算力需求持续驱动下,互联网数据中心市场强势增长,公司面向互联网客户的数据中心交换机产品订单加速交付。同时,公司继续推进管理改善和效率提升工作,在费用管控层面有所成效,共同推动业绩增长。

  多家农业上市公司扭亏为盈

  在上述267家公司中,有31家公司一季度同比扭亏为盈,其中净利润规模在2000万元以上的有17家。牧原股份、新希望、*st傲农、冰川网络、圣农发展、利民股份净利润规模超亿元。

  牧原股份一季度预计实现归母净利润43亿元至48亿元,主要原因为报告期内公司生猪出栏量、生猪销售均价较去年同期上升,且生猪养殖成本较去年同期下降。

  在网上业绩说明会上,牧原股份表示,截至2025年3月末,公司生猪存栏量在4600万头左右。3月生猪养殖完全成本在12.5元/千克左右,成本目标是全年平均12元/千克。公司同时透露资本开支与规划,2025年资本开支金额为90亿元,其中猪舍升级改造为30亿元,郑州产业园及育种平台建设为40亿元至50亿元。未来具体资本开支规模将根据市场情况及经营情况进行调整。

  新希望预计一季度实现归母净利润4.3亿元至5亿元,主要由于公司于2024年完成了多条生猪养殖场线的防疫改造,一季度养殖成本实现同环比双降。同时,一季度猪价较去年同期略高,使生猪养殖业务同比减亏。此外,公司饲料业务在一季度亦取得了量利同增。

  华鑫证券表示,在中美贸易摩擦持续博弈的背景下,《加快建设农业强国规划(2024-2035年)》明确“全方位夯实粮食安全根基”,对于生猪养殖板块,预计未来猪价因猪肉供给量提升而下行,养殖成本因美国进口大豆关税提升而上行,生猪养殖行业二季度能繁产能去化周期开启,落后产能将被淘汰,催化板块投资机会。

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