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  躺平

  文|美酒私享家 市场观察员英国 

  豪言成空谈:业绩失约与百亿目标的“八年马拉松”

  自2012年梅林高调宣布“五年冲击百亿”以来,白云边的百亿目标已沦为一场“八年马拉松”。2024年,其销售收入仅78.3亿元,同比增长1%,远未达到82亿目标,更遑论百亿。相比之下,曾与其并称“百亿预备军”的西凤、今世缘早已在2023年突破百亿大关,而白云边仍在70亿区间徘徊,增速近乎停滞。 

  2017年白云边最高收入仅44.14亿,距离原定目标相差56%,如今又将百亿目标推迟至“十四五”期末(2025年),但按当前增速推算,2025年需实现27.7%的爆发式增长,在白酒行业缩量竞争的背景下,这无异于“痴人说梦”。

  省外扩张难突破:靠“老乡经济”撑起的业绩天花板

  白云边的省外市场看似增长,实则高度依赖湖北籍消费者的“老乡经济”。以广东为例,2024年销售额1.2亿元中,70%由湖北务工人员贡献,一旦该群体返乡或迁移,销售即刻滑坡。春节前核心产品滞销的窘境,暴露了其品牌渗透的脆弱性——省外消费者对兼香型白酒接受度低,且价格透明、利润微薄,经销商缺乏推广动力。 

  反观黄鹤楼,虽同为湖北名酒,但其清香型与浓香型的复合口感更易突破地域限制,且依托历史底蕴(1984年与茅台同列中国名酒),在高端市场更具辨识度。

  高端化溃败:500元天花板与“廉价酒”标签难撕

  白云边在高端市场的乏力尤为致命。天猫旗舰店销量前十产品单价均低于500元,30年陈酿甚至跌出京东前20名。湖北本土市场,五粮液、洋河年销20亿,汾酒、泸州老窖亦分食高端份额,而白云边仅能在100-500元价格带勉强立足。 

  2025年在南京召开的白酒行业T9会议显示出:名酒阵营都在加码储能,为高端次高端产品加持;不做次高端和高端的省酒老大没有未来!没有次高端和高端产品的子品牌难以突破百亿。底层逻辑是高净值人群“喝好酒,少喝酒;买新酒喝老酒”已经成为消费现实。而白云边完美避开了这两点。

  黄鹤楼则凭借“中国名酒”基因,以南派大清香的差异化定位,加大品牌推广,较白云边在次高端市场更具竞争力。其53度楼20年货节单一平台销量超千件,且通过“清香+浓香”双线战略,既保留传统客群,又吸引年轻消费者。而白云边的高端化困局,本质是产品老化,高端产品品牌力不足与产品线混乱的双重枷锁。

  管理老化vs品牌革新:梅林的“守旧”与黄鹤楼的“破圈”

  梅林掌舵27年,虽曾挽救白云边于危难,但如今管理层老化、战略保守的弊端凸显。广告投放陈旧、数字化营销缺位,导致新生代消费者流失;而一线名酒(茅五洋泸汾)渠道下沉时,白云边几无还手之力。梅林颇有“廉颇老矣”之感。 

  反观黄鹤楼,被古井收之麾下之后,以“南派大清香”的差异化定位和“浓香+清香”双剑合璧,近年通过文旅融合、年轻化包装等策略,强化品牌文化IP。例如,其“历史的醇香与现代的碰撞”营销,既吸引中老年客群,又以清新口感切入年轻市场。增速十分明显。

  黄鹤楼2021年实现营业收入8.89亿元,2023年业绩营业收入18.27亿元,2024年上半年,“黄鹤楼及其他”系列实现营收14.03亿元,同比增长26.58%‌。增长还在延续。估计2024年的业绩在20亿左右。

  两相对比,白云边的品牌动作犹如“老牛拉破车”,而黄鹤楼则似“轻舟已过万重山”。

  省酒老大如何突破百亿大关?白云边需“刮骨疗毒”

  黄鹤楼的逆势而上已证明:唯有品牌力与创新力双轮驱动,方能穿越周期。白云边若再不“刮骨疗毒”,8年都被困在70亿元,恐将彻底沦为区域市场的“困兽”,而黄鹤楼或成鄂酒真正的扛旗者。 

  若白云边仍固守“老乡经济”和低端路线,百亿目标终将沦为泡影。如何其破局?笔者为此采访了行业著名品牌战略专家、北京君度咨询公司董事长林枫。林总说,从历史规律来看,无论是洋河还是古井,乃至西凤等,省酒老大要想突破百亿,需要四重变革: 

  (一)洞察并把握产业趋势,构建通天塔产品矩阵。

  各省份白酒老大都紧密关注行业整体发展趋势,如大基建周期带来的消费升级,头部名酒涨价带来的价格带机会、行业次高端扩容,渠道模式变化、营销数字化等趋势,及时调整自身产品战略布局,加大技术改造,顺应潮流,构建通天塔产品矩阵(机会价格带覆盖),为品牌发展赢得先机。

  (二)价格带合理布局,深耕100—200元价格带是关键。

  1、依据品牌定位和目标消费群体,有针对性地布局不同价格带产品。从50—100元的大众消费到200—500元的中高端、次高端乃至1000元超高端布局,但是一定要在大众消费的价格带扎根,形成渠道的规模;然后聚焦深耕100—200元价格带,形成核心的用户群体根基;最后再往上延伸次高端价格带。通过产品升级、系列拓展等方式完善价格体系,满足多样化消费场景和不同层次消费者需求,实现销量与品牌形象的同步提升。

  2、从低到高,价格带站稳,再往上走。100元以下是基础,100—200元是主力——主要进行B端客情公关,抢占优质渠道,借助渠道数量,释放渠道动能;200—300元是次主力,300—500元是形象——主要借助C化价值链和高势能品牌塑造,构建用户动销复购的势能。

  (三)渠道策略要与时俱进,精细化深耕,小区域高占有。

  无论是构建深度分销、盘中盘模式(餐饮盘中盘、团购盘中盘、核心用户盘中盘)、厂商协同模式,还是拥抱C化、BC一体化、拓展电商等新兴渠道,都强调渠道策略要与时俱进。

  并且精细化深耕,强调与经销商紧密合作、对终端的赋能、强掌控以及线上线下渠道的融合发展,在根据地市场和省内核心市场渠道的“大区域、高占有”,保障产品顺利到达消费者手中,并提升销售效率和市场覆盖率。

  1、增点扩面是小区域高占有的法宝:

  酒企各个价格带的产品有效终端是多少?假如500人可以支撑一个100-200元价格带的有效终端。那么就看城市人口规模,计算有效终端数量,及其占有率是多少。

  增点扩面需要注意的事:网点过多,费用高企可能是灾难,数量过少,覆盖率不高,丧失销售机会。

  2、终端数量和质量是关键因素。找对竞品的有效终端,强攻。100-200-300价格带产品,要主核心终端和团购终端。发力宴席。这一点要学习徽酒的渠道深耕。

  (四)品牌打造与消费者培育相辅相成:

  深挖品牌历史文化内涵,通过多样化的文化活动、品鉴体验等将品牌文化具象化展示给消费者,在提升品牌知名度、美誉度的同时,注重与消费者的互动沟通,培育消费者对品牌的认同感、忠诚度,形成良好的口碑传播,进而推动品牌持续成长,巩固省酒老大地位并寻求全国化乃至国际化拓展。

  从“湖北茅台”到增长失速,白云边的困境是区域酒企全国化失败的典型样本。当梅林仍沉醉于“兼香第一品牌”的口号时,黄鹤楼已悄然完成品牌焕新与市场破局。白酒行业的竞争,从来残酷——要么沉沦,要么步履维艰,要么革新逆袭,要么慢慢消亡。

  (转自:美酒私享Home)

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