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西双版纳傣族自治州(景洪市、勐海县、勐腊县)

  国际货币基金组织(IMF)非洲部门主管阿贝贝・阿姆罗・塞拉西表示,撒哈拉以南非洲地区的经济体应努力增加国内财政收入,以避免在“全球局势动荡”之际背负债务。

  国际货币基金组织本周在其《世界经济展望》报告中称,由于美国政府贸易立场可能带来的影响,该地区今年的经济增长预期从先前的4.2%下调至3.8%。

  阿贝贝对路透社表示:“在一段时间内,或许依靠债务融资并非发展的正确途径。”他补充称,政策制定者还必须找到更廉价资金的新来源。

  在唐纳德・特朗普总统宣布对数十个美国贸易伙伴大幅征关税后,投资者纷纷抛售风险资产,这使得撒哈拉以南非洲地区大多数债券发行方的收益率升至两位数,这表明这些所谓的前沿经济体在进入资本市场时可能会面临困难。

  阿贝贝称:“你必须寻找国内资源来推动发展,并满足社会支出需求。那些旨在增强抗风险能力的政策,其重要性愈发凸显。”

  国际货币基金组织称,该地区去年的平均债务与经济产出之比稳定在国内生产总值(GDP)的60%以下,但像肯尼亚这样的一些经济体一直在为高昂的债务偿还成本而苦苦挣扎。

  他表示,尽管美国并非该地区许多经济体的主要贸易伙伴,但其国际贸易政策所带来的连锁反应也给各经济体的汇率带来了压力。

  他指出:“我们已经看到油价下跌……像尼日利亚和安哥拉这样的国家将面临经济活动下滑的局面,而它们是撒哈拉以南非洲地区最大的经济体之一。”

  国际货币基金组织表示,这一预期的经济挫折可能会打断从全球疫情、全球通胀飙升以及利率大幅上升中“艰难取得的经济复苏”,而利率大幅上升实际上使许多非洲经济体无法进入外国资本市场。

  国际货币基金组织称,该地区拥有包括坦桑尼亚和塞内加尔等经济多元化程度较高国家在内的众多经济体,去年该地区经济增长率达到4%,超过了国际货币基金组织此前预测的3.6%。

  国际货币基金组织称,去年该地区强劲的经济扩张伴随着宏观经济失衡状况的改善,平均通胀率下降,债务水平保持稳定。

  阿贝贝表示:“我们已经看到该地区展现出了很强的韧性。”他还补充道,全球增长最快的20个经济体中,有11个将来自撒哈拉以南非洲地区。

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