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火口的两个人 日语|见证直播行业的变迁与创新
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火口的两个人 日语|见证直播行业的变迁与创新

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  布伦特原油与美国WTI原油周五收高,但二者本周均录得跌幅。供应过剩及中国外交部发言人否认中美正在进行关税磋商,令油价承压。此前特朗普宣称谈判正在进行。

  周五,布伦特原油结算价为每桶66.87美元,上涨32美分,涨幅0.48%。美国6月WTI原油结算价为每桶63.02美元,上涨23美分,涨幅0.37%。

  但本周布伦特原油累计下跌约2%,WTI原油下跌约3%。

  关于石油输出国组织及其盟友(OPEC+)可能连续第二个月加速增产的消息,预示着未来原油供应增加。

  俄外长拉夫罗夫称俄乌停战谈判“取得进展”,若战争结束将释放更多俄油入市,此番发言也指向未来供应增长。作为OPEC+三大产油国之一,俄罗斯若恢复原油出口,可能打破当前脆弱的供需平衡。美国与沙特的实际产能政策将成为下一阶段油价关键风向标。

  美元走强,进一步压制以美元计价的原油。

  LSEG高级分析师AnhPham指出:“OPEC+供应过剩忧虑持续,叠加贸易紧张局势下的需求不确定性,共同构成了油价下行压力。美国库存增加和美元走强更令市场雪上加霜。”

  特朗普称他希望“立即”与乌克兰就稀土问题签署协议。

  特朗普在TruthSocial上说,乌克兰在最终矿产协议上签字“至少晚了三周”。

  他表示,俄乌之间的和平协议谈判“进展顺利”。

  挪威主权财富基金是全球规模最大的主权财富基金,规模约为1.5万亿美元。在2025年第一季度,该基金亏损约349亿欧元。主要原因是科技行业股价下跌以及美国股市表现疲软。

  总体而言,股票投资组合的价值下跌了1.6%,而固定收益证券和房地产则略有增值。基金经理尼古拉・坦根(NicolaiTangen)称这是“市场波动剧烈的一个季度”。

  美国股票占股票投资组合的近60%,其表现明显逊于欧洲股票。MSCI美国指数下跌了5.2%,而MSCI欧洲指数涨幅近10%。然而,由于欧洲股票在该基金中仅占22%的份额,它们无法弥补这一损失。造成亏损的主要原因是苹果、微软和英伟达等大型科技股——它们加起来占该基金份额的近17%。

  尽管出现了上述情况,该基金仍打算反其道而行之,未来将加大对美国股票的投资力度。坦根在一次新闻发布会上宣布了这一计划。

  在过去的18个月里,该基金对美国股票的持仓权重低于其基准指数富时环球全股指数(FTSEGlobalAllCap)——后者约63%的份额为美国股票。尽管目前其他投资者正在撤离美国市场,但该基金现在打算弥补这一差距。

  凭借其巨大的市场影响力——全球发行的所有股票中约有1.5%归该基金所有——挪威主权财富基金有可能借此引发市场转向。

  这一举动被视为一个战略信号:该基金并非受短期波动的影响,而是从长期来看,看好美国经济的复苏。

  欧洲主要股指收盘集体上涨,德国DAX30指数涨0.81%,报22242.45点;英国富时100指数涨0.09%,报8415.25点;法国CAC40指数涨0.45%,报7536.26点;欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.80%,报5156.05点。

专题:政治局会议重磅定调

  中国经济,正频频让人感到“超预期”。

  一季度经济同比增速5.4%,超出了很多国内外机构的预测,而过去往往在四月底召开的中央政治局会议,来得也比往年更早一些。

  时间本身也是信号。

  当前,经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固,外部冲击影响加大,在这样的国内外情况下,及时召开会议并向社会传递应对当前形势的决策判断与工作部署,可以帮助各界更好认识当前经济形势,统一思想认识,也可以更好凝聚共识。

  细看中央政治局会议新闻通稿,多处表述之前都很少见。比如这句,“统筹国内经济发展和国际经贸斗争”。和2018年的“经贸摩擦”相比,“经贸斗争”反映出中央对当前国际形势的严峻性、长期性和艰巨性的最新判断,也正基于这样的判断,会议提出要“强化底线思维,充分备足预案,扎实做好经济工作。”

  以变应变。

  会议提出,“要着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期”,也蕴含不少新意。

  “稳就业”排在首位,“对受关税影响较大的企业,提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例”,表明在外部冲击加大的情况下,对就业这个民生之首的高度重视。

  稳企业、稳市场,“多措并举帮扶困难企业”,透露出宏观决策对微观经济运行主体的关切度在进一步提升。在去年9月以来一揽子增量政策和存量政策的作用下,经济呈现向好态势,社会信心持续提振,此次再提“稳预期”,表明在未来一个时期,依然是宏观调控的重要目标。

  关于宏观政策定调,保持了和中央经济工作会议一致的表述——更加积极有为的宏观政策,但在前面,加上了“加紧实施”的要求,同样,在“更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策”前,加上了一个“用好用足”,强调出政策落地的紧迫性。

  政策落地节奏确实在加快。

  就在4月24日,今年首期超长期特别国债正式招标发行,总量达到了1210亿元,根据有关方面的消息,接下来,地方政府债券也会保持较快发行节奏,为全年财政加力腾出空间。

  后续政策还留有充足“后手”。

  此次中央政治局会议明确提出,将“根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策,加强超常规逆周期调节”。在提及货币政策继续使用了“适时降准降息”的表述,表明降准降息要“相机决策”,不会把货币政策的子弹一次打完。与此同时,创设新的结构性货币政策工具,设立新型政策性金融工具,支持科技创新等新提法受到市场高度关注,据记者了解,相关政策举措已在紧锣密鼓制定当中。

  外需变动加剧的情况下,内需的重要性已无需多言。中央政治局会议提出,要提高中低收入群体收入,大力发展服务消费,增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用。

  不光有政策取向上的重视,更有实打实的应对举措。会议特别提到,要尽快清理消费领域限制性措施,设立服务消费与养老再贷款。加大资金支持力度,扩围提质实施“两新”政策,加力实施“两重”建设。

  既以变应变,又以不变应万变。

  中央政治局会议提出,坚定不移办好自己的事,坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放,这两句话,体现出中国在面对世界百年未有之大变局的定力,也是中国在单边主义、保护主义日益肆虐于国际社会时再次表明的坚决立场。

  做好自己的事,圆满完成“十四五”规划目标任务,为“十五五”良好开局打牢基础。截至目前,“十四五”规划102项重大工程涉及的5000多个具体项目中,已完成规划任务目标的占比已达到99%。

  做好自己的事,用深化改革开放的办法解决发展中的问题。

  就在本周四,新版市场准入负面清单发布,根据国家发展改革委的统计,新版清单和2018年的第一版相比,事项压减了约30%。很多限制性管理措施被取消,很多区域性壁垒在破除,全国统一大市场建设正在加快。

  同样也是在本周,国务院新闻办发布会上详解了中国推进服务业开放的155项试点任务,电信、医疗、金融等领域对外资开放力度之大,举世瞩目。

  以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。这就是中国给出的破局之道。

  2025年4月24日-25日,国际货币基金组织(以下简称基金组织)在美国华盛顿特区召开第51届国际货币与金融委员会(IMFC)会议,会议讨论了全球经济金融形势、基金组织工作等议题。中国人民银行行长潘功胜出席会议并发言。中国人民银行副行长宣昌能参加会议。

  会议认为,世界经济正处于关键转折点。近期贸易紧张局势加剧,导致不确定性和市场波动,给经济增长和金融稳定带来风险。会议重申支持强劲的、以份额为基础的、资源充足的基金组织作为全球金融安全网的核心,期待各国尽快完成第十六次份额总检查下份额增资的国内批准程序。会议认为,基金组织份额占比调整应旨在更好反映成员在全球经济中的相对比重,同时保护最贫困国家发言权。

  潘功胜指出,当前全球经济增长动能偏弱,下行风险突出。近期美国滥施关税,严重侵犯各国正当权益,严重损害以规则为基础的多边治理体制,严重冲击全球经济秩序,破坏全球经济长期稳定增长;同时也引发全球金融市场剧烈波动,发达经济体尤为严重。这对全球金融稳定造成威胁,对新兴市场经济体和发展中国家构成严峻挑战。

  潘功胜强调,各国亟须加强宏观经济政策协调,支持多边贸易体系,推动经济全球化朝着更加开放、包容、普惠、均衡的方向发展,共同促进全球经济金融稳定。中国坚持真正的多边主义,是经济全球化和贸易自由化的倡导者、世贸组织的坚定维护者和支持者,积极参与全球经济治理,致力于建设开放型世界经济。中国愿进一步深化与基金组织的合作,支持基金组织在维护全球经济金融稳定方面发挥更大的作用。

  潘功胜指出,基金组织作为全球金融安全网的核心,继续推动份额改革对提高基金组织的合法性、有效性和代表性至关重要。基金组织是以份额为基础的机构,份额占比调整是治理改革最重要的组成部分,应尽快实现份额占比调整,使其反映成员国在全球经济中的相对地位,增加新兴市场和发展中国家的代表性。中国呼吁各方尽快完成内部程序,早日推动第十六次总检查承诺的份额增资生效,并加快第十七次份额总检查的准备工作,包括对新份额公式的讨论,维护基金组织信誉,早日实现有意义的份额调整。

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