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滔滔长江水,巍巍荆楚风

长江是中华民族的母亲河

滋养了源远流长的中华文明

  国际在线报道(记者黄蓉):新一届美国政府上台以来,接连宣布对包括中国在内的全球贸易伙伴征收所谓“对等关税”,引发国际社会普遍反对和多方专业人士批评。这场被美国包装成“公平贸易”的关税风暴对全球供应链产生了极大破坏,尤其是对发展中国家和新兴经济体造成强烈冲击。近日,埃塞俄比亚贸易和工业部前国务部长特卡·恩特哈布在接受国际在线记者专访时指出,美国滥施关税的行为将促使“全球南方”减少对美国市场的依赖,更加专注于通过南南合作加速实现供应链多元化,并加快区域经济一体化进程。此外,他强调,长期以来,中非合作持续激发非洲国家内生发展动力,而在充满不确定性的当下,中非合作的关键性将愈发凸显。

  特卡·恩特哈布指出,美国所谓“对等关税”政策或将威胁此前的《非洲增长与机遇法案》(AGOA),该法案规定美国针对撒哈拉以南非洲国家给予贸易与投资优惠,被视为美国与撒哈拉以南非洲之间经贸往来的支柱。特卡·恩特哈布表示,“美国设置的高额关税将对非洲出口贸易产生深刻影响,导致相关产业就业流失、非洲国家经济增长放缓。”他认为,为维护经济稳定,“全球南方”必须携手破局,加速区域经济一体化、构建更加多元化的‌供应链体系,并‌深化与全球第二大经济体中国的经济联系。

  受特朗普主张的“美国优先”理念影响,全球范围内单边主义、保护主义频频抬头,多边体系饱受冲击。对此,特卡·恩特哈布表示,金砖国家合作机制作为新兴市场国家和发展中国家加强团结、维护共同利益的重要平台,无疑是维护全球化和多边主义的核心力量,能够为缓冲美国滥施关税给全球南方国家带来的损害发挥建设性作用。

  特卡·恩特哈布建议,首先,金砖国家可以协调外交反制,组织发展中国家建立反保护主义联盟;其次,加强金砖伙伴国内部贸易合作,扩大本币结算规模,并深化与非盟、东盟及拉美国家的经贸联系;此外,还可以建立金砖国家联合贸易机制,在金砖国家成员内部设立平行于WTO的贸易争端解决平台,增强集体谈判能力。

  他进一步强调,在充满不确定性的当下,中非合作的历史意义再度凸显。与美国借由“对等关税”抬高全球贸易成本的自私举措截然相反,中国长期以来奉行的对外政策旨在促进商品更好、更快地实现跨国流通,降低各方贸易成本。特卡·恩特哈布举例,中国在非援建的大型基础设施蒙内铁路和亚吉铁路使东非地区的物流运输成本大大降低,并提高了埃塞俄比亚工业园出口效率。

  “中非合作还激发了非洲内生发展动力。”他赞许称,多年来中国对非洲人员进行技术培训,帮扶卢旺达等小国建设农业技术示范中心,显著提升其粮食产量;中非合作建设的中埃·泰达苏伊士经贸合作区、尼日利亚莱基自贸区等园区产业集聚效应持续显现,为当地创造了数十万个就业岗位;中国还助力非洲加强数字基础设施建设,推动非洲接入高速互联网,支持非洲建设“智慧城市”。特卡·恩特哈布总结称,中非合作以联通促发展的范式,正在协助非洲重塑在全球经济体系中的角色——从原材料出口地向“新兴制造业枢纽”转型。面对美国滥施关税带来的重重挑战,中非及所有“全球南方”伙伴更应团结一致,加强经贸往来。

  每次美国对别国发动贸易战,“挺美”的一派总会说,美国是全球最大消费市场,是全世界的“金主”,得罪不起。但事实果真如此吗?为什么“全球第一”市场连买鸡蛋都成问题?我们不妨掀开美国18.8万亿美元“消费神话”的遮羞布,看看天价账单背后,美国人真实的消费水平。

  服务消费占主导

  商品消费被夸大

  按美国劳动局数据,美国人2023年消费支出18.8万亿美元,其中12.7万亿花在了看病、租房、交学费、打官司等服务上,用来消费商品的支出是6.1万亿,不到总消费的三分之一。所以吹嘘美国消费能力强属实是个“地狱笑话”,看病花钱多有什么可骄傲的?

  当然,即使打了三折,6万亿的商品消费也是很大的数目,但还是同样的问题,这只是纸面数字,真实消费的商品,真比其他国家多吗?拿汽车举例,美国这个“车轮上的国家”,去年新车销量1590万辆;中国去年新车销量3144万辆,几乎是美国两倍。美国消费者去年买了约1.5亿部手机,中国消费者买了2.86亿部。特朗普加征关税后,敦煌网等电商平台登上美国App下载榜前列,中美网友又展开了一场“消费大对账”,越来越多美国人恍然大悟,他们的“一千美元提包”和“一百美元紧身裤”在中国只卖最低几美元。美国所谓的“高消费”,不是消费了更多,而是为相同商品付的钱更多。

  美国民众在对账比差价抓“奸商”,美国政府居然还在大张旗鼓宣传自己加的高关税。这是真不怕民众回过味发现钱实际到谁手里了啊。

  谁才是惹不起的金主?

  美国农民有话说

  在主要工业品方面,美国的消费能力已经被中国这个新兴市场拉开了差距。农产品方面更没悬念,中国才是“甲方”。中国人消费了全世界几乎一半的猪肉,大豆作为猪饲料,也非常依赖中国市场。美国年产1.18亿吨大豆,自己只能消费一半,剩下一半都靠出口,而全球大豆进口量,中国占了三分之二。美国大豆协会主席拉格兰坦言:“我们现在担心的不是赔钱,是赔掉土地。我们农民现在要确保的是活过这轮危机,在中美完成谈判之前别破产。”

  据多家外媒报道,自今年1月16日以来,中国企业就没再从美国购买过大豆;自2月初以来,中国也再没买过美国的液化天然气。早在特朗普发难前就已布局,保证了粮食和能源不受贸易战威胁。反观美国,对自己发起的关税战毫无准备,把股市债市超市都折腾得鸡飞狗跳。

  美媒披露,等不来中国电话的白宫正在讨论建立一个工作组,以便在未能与中国政府谈判取得突破的情况下紧急处理国内供应链危机。那问题来了,白宫对美国消费能力这么自信,他们能消化这几千万吨大豆吗?靠抬升物价或许能刷出漂亮的数据,但大豆积压了就是积压了,超市空了就是空了,工厂关了就是关了。当消费的水分被挤出,产业的破败被揭露,动辄说别人没牌打的特朗普政府,自己才是无牌可打。正如一位美国商人所说:“美国媒体大肆宣传要把供应链搬到离客户和消费者更近的地方,但客户和消费者最多的地方就是中国啊。”

  特朗普宣布“对等关税”后的一周,美国进口量暴跌64%。这张全球航运的实时统计地图清晰显示,美国的航运密度已经明显低于中国和欧洲。当美国还在靠医疗账单和律师函刷数据时,中国用实实在在的商品供应支撑全球贸易,提升本国和世界的消费水平。所谓“18万亿美元消费市场”不过是“皇帝的新衣”,真正的王牌,永远握在能让工厂盈利、港口忙碌、农产品有销路的实干者手中。

  总监制丨唐怡

  监制丨陆毅

  制片人丨赵新宇文凡

  编导丨吴啸浪曹梓楠

  视觉丨蔡子旭

  制作丨李冬魏然

  配音丨余奇明

  近日,在位于北京市石景山区的家中,已退休十余年的民建会员刘黎晚饭都顾不上吃,忙着打印“课件”。当天晚些时间,三名刚下班的年轻人从北京不同方位赶来,相聚在刘黎家,设在客厅的“小课堂”开课了。

  此次“小课堂”是民建北京市委会石景山区工委(以下简称“民建石景山区工委”)“会员培养导师制”的学习活动。三名学员中,从事投资工作的韩雨晨现任民建石景山区工委青年工作委员会副主任。近期她有两篇关于北京的文旅消费、“首发经济”的社情民意信息分别被全国政协、北京市政协的信息部门采用。在讨论环节,韩雨晨分享了自己的思路:一是从个人主业出发,根据民建的界别特色,站在民营企业或经济界人士的角度去思考,找一个小切口;二是要打破信息不对称,通过调研掌握尽可能多的信息和数据。另外两名学员王凯伦、赵凯毅也带来了自己正在撰写的社情民意信息,大家一起提建议、出主意。

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