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重生大神写手-冲动的代价与成长的教训
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重生大神写手-冲动的代价与成长的教训

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4月22日,陷入“外卖大战”的美团、京东港股股价双双下跌。

截至15时收盘,京东集团股价下跌6.32%,报价130.4美元,美团下跌4.62%,报价130.2美元。而在22日早些时刻,两只股票的下跌幅度一度超过7%。

京东集团、美团当日股价同花顺iFinD

围绕外卖业务,近期两大平台动作频频。

4月21日,京东官方发布《致全体外卖骑手兄弟们的公开信》,称为应对某平台的骑手“二选一”,将加大全职骑手招聘力度了;同一日,刘强东还参与了京东外卖的一线配送服务,有网友在小红书晒出合照后被京东官方证实属实。

当晚,美团官方就骑手“二选一”争议发布《关于已辟谣谣言被某平台再度利用的说明》。声明中表示,目前美团、饿了么、闪送等平台骑手都在为某平台提供配送服务支持,美团从未限制骑手在其他平台上接单。

数据显示,自京东外卖上线以来,其日订单量迅速突破百万,并在短时间内达到500万单。随之而来的运力需求也与日俱增,4月15日,京东宣布本季度将招收不低于5万名全职外卖员,以应对日益增长的订单需求。同时,为应对部分外卖订单延迟的问题,自4月21日起,所有超时20分钟以上的外卖订单将全部免单。

与此同时,美团也在积极调整策略以应对京东对自己的核心业务冲击。4月15日,美团正式推出独立即时零售品牌“美团闪购”,并在App首页设置了一级入口,将长期低调的即时零售业务推向战略前台。该服务拥有超过3万个闪电仓,覆盖零售全品类,且预计到2027年将达到10万个,以响应消费者的即时需求。

专家认为,京东和美团互相向对方核心领域渗透,本质上则是对即时零售领域展开争夺。短期内,这种竞争会对双方的业绩造成一定影响,导致股价波动。而对于投资者而言,重要的是关注双方如何应对挑战并寻找增长点,以及这些策略能否转化为可持续的财务表现。

  来源:证券市场周刊市场号

  最近,市场出现了一个明显的风格转化——权重股修整,题材股全面爆发,短期超跌反弹的科技赛道强势回归,算力、AI、机器人等轮番上涨。

  这里想重点聊一下算力,算力是近期一个爆发力强势的科技细分题材,从最近国际形势下的自主可控逻辑、头部公司业绩表现、最新斩获订单(可见文内表2)等角度来看,算力题材都来到了一个重要拐点。值得一提的是,知名牛散章建平也罕见出手,近38亿重仓布局了一只算力概念股。

  算力龙头业绩超预期

  持续了一段时间的权重股行情正在被题材股的发力打破,这个现象在4月21日尤为明显,当天,创业板、深证指数均上涨超1%,前期超跌的科技等细分领域多迎来强势反弹。

  作为市场人气赛道,科技股的反弹,意味着市场风险偏好的回暖,在市场保持“稳稳的幸福”下,本身具有高弹性的科技题材股或正在迎来新一轮的较佳关注时机。

  进一步来看,最近科技赛道中有几个细分赛道的表现比较受关注,如半导体,4月22日,立昂微(盘中“10cm”涨停)、东微半导、纳芯微等多只标的出现强势上涨。半导体的投资逻辑近期已有多次重点分析,提及的不少相关公司也在近期走出了不错的行情(详情可见《这个机会当下有高确定性,10倍股名单曝光》)。

  还有一个是算力,算力板块的表现属于超跌反弹,4月9日以来已累计上涨了近10%。4月21日,一众概念股收出涨停,艾布鲁收出“20cm”涨停,大位科技、润建股份等均收出“10cm”涨停。

  算力板块的反弹与多个因素相关,近期的年报、一季报是一个重要的催化因素。观察发现,最近多家业绩表现不错的头部公司都受到了资金的重点关注。以寒武纪为例,据其4月18日发布的今年一季报显示,实现归母净利润3.55亿元,同比扭亏为盈。寒武纪是AI算力芯片头部公司,公司股价长期走“慢牛”行情,近期开启新一轮反弹,4月9日~4月21日累计上涨了超过20%。

  除了寒武纪,还有不少算力以及相关产业链公司收获业绩与股价“双击”。如仕佳光子,4月21日收出“20cm”涨停,公司一季报实现净利润9319.44万元,同比增长达10倍;胜宏科技4月21日披露称,一季度实现净利润9.21亿元,同比增幅为339.22%。胜宏科技股价也在近期走出了强于板块的修复行情。

  另外,还有其他多家算力股披露一季报业绩且实现增长(见表1)。

  对于算力以及细分产业链的投资机会,本栏目特约嘉宾边惠宗即进行了长期跟踪,如其最新在4月21日的《边看边涨》中即深度分析了算力、细分方向以及相关头部公司的投资逻辑。其表示,目前AI算力是一季报最强细分,涉及AI芯片、光通信(为算力提供高速传输基础)、端侧SOC(系统级芯片,为算力集成中枢)、IDC(互联网数据中心,算力物理载体),AI算力接下来应该会迎来系统性修复。

  那么,算力的行情延续性会持续多久?哪些产业链环节以及头部公司具有更大的投资机会?想进一步了解的读者朋友可以扫描或长按识别下方二维码,“加入学习”即可免费收看边惠宗有关算力产业链的深度分析。

  频频斩获订单

  有公司累计额超60亿

  算力,泛指计算能力,即数据的处理能力,AI大模型与智能体的爆发式增长极大带动了算力的需求。算力板块的上涨包括长期以及短期等多个驱动因素,如除了上文提到的业绩催化,至少还包括AI需求带动、大厂算力开支增加、当前不确定的外部环境催动国产替代逻辑升温等。

  在算力需求持续增长的趋势下,算力以及产业链公司的业绩利好正在加速兑现,展望未来,其还有大额订单的加持。

  最近,有多家公司宣布签订算力以及相关订单,订单金额多以1亿元为“起步价”,有公司则超过60亿元。另外值得一提的是,受订单利好的刺激,很多公司股价开启强势反弹模式。

  4月18日、4月21日,海南华铁股价连续2天均出现了近6%的强势上涨,4月9日以来连续反弹,至今累计上涨近20%。公司股价反弹或与算力订单等加持有关,据公司4月21日披露的财报数据显示,2025年一季报实现净利润1.91亿元,同比增长21.72%。截至2025年3月末,公司累计签订算力服务金额已达66.7亿元。

  曾在3月4日,海南华铁曾宣布签订了一项合同总金额为36.9亿元的算力服务协议,受此刺激,公司股价在此之后的3个交易日(3月5日~3月7日)均连续收出“10cm”涨停。

  通过深度梳理发现,近期有很多公司都有中标算力订单、签订算力服务合同等相关动作。其中,有一家为知名投资人刘益谦的重点布局标的,持仓市值超过一个“小目标”。另外结合股价来看,这些有签订算力订单的相关公司也多在近期放量上涨,部分走出长线慢牛行情,一些更是确立了加速反转趋势,目前共17家公司入选(见表2:长按识别或扫描二维码,“加入学习”即可免费获取完整名单)。

  章建平出手布局

  在算力股行情升温之际,多路资金也开启了大笔增仓模式,如牛散、“聪明钱”北上资金等。

  牛散的代表如章建平,其与一致行动人合力大手笔布局曾经的大牛股海利生物被市场密切关注,但近来,鲜有其身影的出现。不过,其最近却现身了,而且不出手则已,一出手就是大手笔。

  章建平相中的这只算力概念股正是寒武纪,从寒武纪最新披露的2024年年报、2025年一季报的前十大股东来看,均有章建平的身影。

  据寒武纪的2024年年报显示,章建平以533.88万股的持仓量、35.13亿元的持仓市值新进成为公司第8大股东。2025年一季报显示,章建平进一步增仓74.75万股至608.63万股,持仓市值进一步增长至接近38亿元(见表3)。

  “聪明钱”北上资金也对寒武纪进行了大笔增仓,2025年一季度,北上资金对寒武纪增仓了512.23万股至1542.53万股,截至季度末,持仓市值高达96.10亿元。

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