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未满十八岁-你所不知道的魅力
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转自:上观新闻

特朗普政府的关税政策又变了。美国白宫在官网的最新声明表示,由于中国采取报复性措施,美对华关税加征至245%。

特朗普政府的不断变化让全球市场避险情绪升温,黄金价格持续攀升。但同为传统避险资产的美债却遇“滑铁卢”,价格不断走低。上周,10年期美债收益率累计飙升逾50个基点,创下逾20年来的最大单周涨幅。

避险功能失灵的背后,是特朗普政府在“搬起石头砸自己的脚”。

先来讲讲美债是什么。

在布雷顿森林体系运行近30年之后,1971年美国主动打破自己制定的规则,宣布美元与黄金脱钩,终结了自己一手建立的美元——黄金货币体系。随后,黄金正式退出国际货币体系,世界从此进入以美元为主导的后布雷顿森林体系阶段,成为国际贸易的通用货币。为了进行国际贸易,各国都需要持有部分美元外汇,除了持有现金外,美债就成为了各国重要的外汇储备选项。

多年以来,由于美国强悍的政治和经济地位,美元得以保持在世界结算中的的霸权地位,也就是说,其信用基础在于美国经济的稳定和政府的偿债能力。正是基于此,投资者才会相信美债是全球最稳定的资产之一,这也使得美债成为继黄金之后,最具吸引力的“避险资产”。

美债的“避险功能”曾经得到过验证。在2008年全球金融危机爆发时,市场一片恐慌,众多资产价格暴跌,投资者纷纷抛售手中资产,而美债却成为资金的“避风港”,大量资金涌入,推动美债价格上升,收益率下降。

但是,这一功能目前似乎正在失灵。

随着特朗普对全球贸易伙伴加征关税,并且频频变卦,全球市场的避险情绪正在升温。但在避险资产的表现方面却出现了两种走向。一边是黄金价格的持续攀升,4月16日,COMEX黄金期货盘中突破3300美元/盎司大关,再刷历史新高;另一边,美债作为曾经的避险资产却遭遇大量抛售,价格持续走低,引发美债市场自4月7日至4月11日连续五天走弱,10年期美债收益率从3.858%上行至4.588%。与此同时,美元指数也接连走弱,并跌破100点关口。

这是为啥?其实,特朗普搞出“对等关税”闹剧的初衷,很大程度上是为了解决美债危机。

自上世纪七八十年代以来,美国政府大量对外发债,2017年美债突破20万亿美元,2022年突破30万亿美元。2023年6月以来,美债更是以每100天增加约1万亿美元的速度狂飙,截至目前,已经达到36.2万亿美元。这相当于中国、德国、日本、印度、英国五国的经济总量之和。

而这些美债会分批到期,2025年美国有接近9.2万亿美元的美债到期。美国必须拿出大量的财政资金来兑付美债和利息,才能保证美债信用。但是现在美国政府面临的最大困局正是财政赤字,也就是入不敷出。而今年6月份,美债就会迎来一次集中偿还期。

此时,特朗普政府的当务之急就是“搞钱”。于是就开始拿“贸易逆差”说事儿,想通过向外征收“对等关税”来增加收入。

同时,“对等关税”也是一种谈判筹码。白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰曾经在一篇论文中提出过“海湖庄园协议”,意思是让其他国家把手里的短期美国国债换成一百年期债券。如果各国不同意这一点,他们将面临关税并被取消美国的安全保障。目前虽然还没有关于具体谈判内容的披露,但市场里有人推测,特朗普政府希望以关税为谈判筹码,来化解美债危机。

这一招当然不会奏效,不断下跌的美债价格,就是市场给出的答案。

上海交通大学上海高级金融学院副教授李楠表示,在这场闹剧下,特朗普政府在关税政策上的出尔反尔会直接损害美国国债和美元的在国际贸易体系中的地位,造成对美国国债的需求降低,美债收益率上升,给美国财政赤字雪上加霜。同时对美元的信心下降,造成美元贬值,叠加高关税造成供应短缺,企业的经营困境,会推高美国的通胀,引发经济衰退,让美联储左右为难。

不难发现,他们本想通过“对等关税”来解决美债问题,但现实情况可以说是“搬起石头砸了自己的脚”。

原标题:《美债“避险”功能失灵,特朗普政府“搬起石头砸自己的脚”》

栏目主编:张杨题图来源:上观题图

来源:作者:解放日报刘惠宇吴丹璐

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