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 包头市(土默特右旗、达尔罕茂明安联合旗、固阳县、石拐区、白云鄂博矿区、东河区、九原区、青山区、昆都仑区)





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红河哈尼族彝族自治州(建水县、泸西县、金平苗族瑶族傣族自治县、个旧市、石屏县、红河县、绿春县、弥勒市、蒙自市、开远市、元阳县、河口瑶族自治县、屏边苗族自治县)  海北藏族自治州(海晏县、祁连县、门源回族自治县、刚察县)









沈阳市(浑南区、法库县、康平县、沈北新区、沈河区、铁西区、和平区、皇姑区、于洪区、新民市、大东区、苏家屯区、辽中区)









晋中市(祁县、榆次区、平遥县、太谷区、左权县、榆社县、和顺县、灵石县、寿阳县、昔阳县、介休市)









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郑州市(登封市、金水区、新密市、中牟县、中原区、二七区、荥阳市、上街区、管城回族区、新郑市、惠济区、巩义市)









赣州市(上犹县、赣县区、石城县、于都县、宁都县、龙南市、定南县、信丰县、大余县、章贡区、安远县、全南县、寻乌县、兴国县、南康区、瑞金市、崇义县、会昌县)

  预测人士预计,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的贸易战将在今年和明年对经济增长造成冲击,因为关税将推高物价并抑制消费者支出。

  根据最新对经济学家的调查,美国经济预计将在2025年增长1.4%,2026年增长1.5%,而上月调查的预测分别为2%和1.9%。目前,受访经济学家的中值预测显示,未来12个月内经济衰退的概率为45%,高于3月份的30%。

  特朗普决定大多数国家至少加征10%的关税,此举令许多预测机构警告经济将面临急剧放缓,甚至有部分机构预测今年就可能出现经济衰退。这在一定程度上是因为家庭需求出现了大幅下调,而家庭需求占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重约为三分之二。

  “更强劲的经济增长需要更快解决贸易战,并重振对美国政策制定的信心,”德意志银行资深美国经济学家BrettRyan表示。

  尽管特朗普政府已对本月早些时候宣布的部分更高的关税实施了90天暂停,但根据经济研究的数据,美国当前的有效关税率已升至接近23%——这是超过一个世纪以来的最高水平。这已对消费者和企业信心造成冲击。

  国际货币基金组织本周大幅下调了全球经济增长预期,并警告称,若美国关税措施持续实施,将对全球经济产生连锁反应。

  彭博社调查显示,经济学家目前预计今年第一季度进口年化增长19.2%,因企业抢在关税上调前加速将商品运往美国。他们还将2027年前的增长预期下调。

  预测人士还下调了美国截至2026年的出口表现。多个国家已对美国商品实施报复性关税,这将导致进口这些产品的成本上升,并可能导致海外需求下降。

  美国经济分析局将于4月30日公布第一季度GDP的初步估计值。

  经济学家预计,美联储偏好的通胀指标——个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)——将在2025年底达到3.2%的峰值,高于3月份调查中的2.7%的估计值。不包括食品和能源的核心PCE通胀率预计将达到3.3%。

  “通胀预计将上升,但不会像2022年那样严重,”Comerica银行经济学家BillAdams和WaranBhahirethan表示。“自关税上调以来,美联储一直警告称,在通胀上升的情况下,降息的门槛比在传统经济冲击期间更高,传统的冲击会同时降低需求和价格。”

  劳动力市场在短期内预计将保持稳定,经济学家预计今年和明年每月平均新增就业岗位分别为7.2万个和10万个。他们预计到2025年底失业率将升至4.6%,高于3月份预计的4.3%。

  此次调查于4月18日至23日进行,共收集了82位经济学家的反馈。

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