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◎记者张问之

当前,国内水泥行业正经历“阵痛期”。海螺水泥、华新水泥、天山股份等多家头部企业2024年年报显示,受多重因素影响,企业利润大多承压。不过,一大亮点是,这些公司的海外业务呈现逆势增长态势,成为公司业绩的重要支撑。截至当前,中资水泥企业已在海外20多个国家布局熟料生产线,熟料产能近9300万吨。

在海外需求支撑的同时,国内水泥市场也显现出回暖迹象。一季度以来,国内水泥价格企稳回升,下游需求逐步改善,行业复苏步伐加快。海螺水泥近日发布的业绩预告显示,受益于成本下降及销量提升,公司一季度预盈18.08亿元,同比增长约20%。

针对美国加征“对等关税”对水泥行业的影响,中国水泥网·水泥大数据研究院分析师李坤明在接受上海证券报记者采访时表示:“中国出口美国水泥产品占比极低,短期对行业影响较小。而且,中国水泥企业可以加强与其他国家的沟通与合作,促进水泥产品出口量继续增长。”

并购+产能布局持续拓展国际市场

2024年,A股水泥企业海外市场的“成绩单”如何?

华新水泥2024年实现海外营业收入79.84亿元,同比增长47%;海外水泥销量为1620万吨,同比增长37%;海外产能超2250万吨/年,同比增长8%;海外累计运营及在建水泥产能突破2500万吨。

2024年,海螺水泥非洲、南美海外办事处相继设立,乌兹别克斯坦安集延海螺投产运营,柬埔寨金边海螺建设加快推进并于2025年2月建成投运,海外托管项目顺利推进。年报显示,2024年,公司海外营业收入为46.77亿元,毛利率提升至32.33%;海外增加熟料产能230万吨。

“2024年,公司国际化业务继续保持盈利态势,在销量和利润方面都有所提升。近日,公司突尼斯项目完成了交割、股权变更手续。”近日,天山股份在集体业绩说明会上回应投资者关切时表示。2024年,天山股份海外区域营业收入为8.40亿元,同比增长4.36%。

在国内水泥需求温和下降、行业整体利润收缩的背景下,上述企业逆势增长的“海外成绩单”显得格外亮眼。多家水泥企业称,2025年将坚定国际化发展战略,加速推进海外布局。

海螺水泥称,2025年公司将加快推进国际化发展,发挥海外办事处的功能,在新兴市场挖掘合适的项目载体,进一步完善海外布局。天山股份表示,公司将力推重点项目落地,持续拓展国际市场。

2025年,华新水泥计划资本性支出约133亿元,将重点用于海外并购、前期公司对骨料项目投资的延续支出(包括矿山尾款支付等),以及对超低排放等技术改造投资。在公司2025年的资本开支中,占比最大的就是尼日利亚和巴西项目的并购支出。2024年12月,华新水泥先后披露,拟斥资约8.38亿美元和1.866亿美元分别收购尼日利亚水泥资产和巴西4家骨料工厂。

“今年我们将持续在全球新兴市场的水泥及相关产品市场进行拓展,同时在国内水泥市场的整合提质、产品拓展等方面创造新的增长点。”华新水泥董事、总裁李叶青说。谈及美国“对等关税”的影响,他表示,该事件对公司的业务没有显著影响。

提价+需求改善市场复苏信号显现

回看国内市场,复苏信号已经显现。海螺水泥4月8日晚披露,得益于公司产品成本下降及销量上升,公司预计2025年一季度实现归母净利润约18.08亿元,同比增长约20%;扣非净利润约16.50亿元,同比增长约20%。

“在煤炭成本下降、水泥均价上移的背景下,水泥行业利润将修复向好,预计2025年全年行业利润率在2.8%左右,略好于2024年同期。”李坤明表示。

在李坤明看来,随着水泥企业强化自律和错峰生产,预计2025年行情或回归常态化,波动空间缩窄,呈现“上涨有顶、下跌有限”的运行特征。

金隅集团、天山股份、冀东水泥等多家企业在公开场合传递了积极信号和信心。“一季度水泥价格表现较好,同比提升20元/吨以上。4月水泥市场进入正常销售季节,销量会进一步恢复;价格方面,东北、晋冀鲁豫及内蒙古、重庆、湖南等区域会有相关复价的计划。”金隅集团预判,今年水泥各个时间段的价格中枢会较去年有一定提升,从而改善盈利。

冀东水泥在业绩说明会上透露,公司一季度总体销量和去年同期基本持平,水泥熟料综合价格同比提升20元/吨以上,成本同比下降,毛利率提升明显。

谈及今年行业发展趋势,天山股份称,随着基建项目陆续启动,预计下半年需求降幅将逐渐收窄。当前,行业反对“内卷式”竞争的共识更强,错峰生产等机制和办法日趋成熟,行业生态建设的基础更加牢固。公司将认真贯彻落实相关政策要求反对行业内卷,认真执行错峰方案,为行业复苏注入信心。

在4月15日召开的业绩说明会上,海螺水泥表示,尽管短期内面临竞争加剧等挑战,但在政策支持、行业整合及技术创新等多方面推动下,水泥行业正处于高质量发展的关键转型期,仍具备一定的增长潜力。

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