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  来源:参考消息

  【今日导读】直到去年秋天,美国经济还常常被描述为让世界羡慕的对象。而现在呢?阿克西奥斯新闻网站宣布:“在全世界,新的热门交易是‘抛售美国’。” 

  全球左派曾经幻想可以建立一套新的世界体系,阻止或至少限制贪婪的美帝国主义。原本恐怕不会有人选择特朗普去实现这一点。可是如今,心怀这个梦想的不仅有激进的知识分子或发展中国家的领袖,还有美国最亲密的邻国和曾经的盟友。它们对此甚至并不遮掩。

  最近,西班牙政府自豪地宣布加强对华关系,即使此前美国财政部长贝森特曾声称这样做无异于“自戕”。法国总统马克龙敦促欧洲企业停止投资美国。欧盟作为一个整体正在制定报复性关税,并且谋划对美国科技企业加税。

  接下来会怎样?考虑到现在所谓地缘经济学的趋势,结果应该不是太难想象。中国在全球贸易中举足轻重,彭博新闻社的模型显示,关税只会增加中国的领先优势——推动更多国家与中国而不是美国加强合作。

  有模型显示,哪怕彻底停止和美国的贸易,美国的贸易伙伴中有30%将在一年内完全恢复,超过一半的贸易伙伴将在5年内完全恢复。

  被称作“中国制造2025”的产业政策已实施约10年时间。美国豪赌人工智能及其主宰的经济未来,中国则大力投入以制造更多的东西。事实证明,在10年时间里,这样一个国家的确能造出很多东西(显然包括有竞争力的人工智能)。你大概还听说过中国在清洁能源领域的主导地位,中国每年新增的太阳能发电装机容量相当于世界其他国家的总和,同时生产全球90%的太阳能电池板和超过四分之三的电池。

  中国也在新专利领域占据优势并超过美国。虽然专利只是衡量技术进步的一个粗略指标,但中美之间的这个差距还在不断扩大。中国十分重视对高校和政府研究机构进行投资。与此同时,美国的政府效率部正大量削减相关预算,移民与海关执法局开始驱逐持有签证的国际学生。

  《经济学人》周刊最近指出,直到2010年,中国研发的药品在全球占据的份额还完全可以忽略不计,但如今,中国已成为世界第二大新药研发国。从2013年到2023年,中国在全球临床试验中占据的份额从4%增长到约28%。

  中国发表的高质量科学论文篇数已经超过欧洲和美国。按国际论文被引用次数统计,中国在材料科学、工程技术、化学和计算机科学等领域都取得领先地位。这些似乎都是重要领域。

  在特朗普的第二任期,一位电动汽车行业的亿万富翁目前可以说是政府中第二有权势的人。但特斯拉的股价自去年12月以来已经下跌一半,这个品牌正在美国遭遇自由派的强烈反对,在欧洲国家的销量也大幅下滑。与此同时,自2020年以来,中国电动汽车巨头比亚迪在全球的销量已经增长数倍。

  美国哥伦比亚大学的经济史学者亚当·图泽去年11月表示:“第一个‘中国冲击’是中国开始融入我们的供应链;第二个‘中国冲击’则是我们乞求融入它们的供应链。”

  直到去年秋天,美国经济还常常被描述为让世界羡慕的对象。而现在呢?阿克西奥斯新闻网站宣布:“在全世界,新的热门交易是‘抛售美国’。”

  受到影响的不仅是美国国债。越南去年国内生产总值约有30%来自对美出口。而在最近,越南与中国签署了数十项新协议。

  本文由美国《纽约时报》网站4月16日刊登,原题为《一个由中国主导的全球经济不难想象》,作者是戴维·华莱士-韦尔斯。

  微信审核 |邓媛

  内容编审 | 赵宇鹏粘轶峰潘剑

  微信编辑 | 许海婷

  ■ 安 宁

  4月18日召开的国务院常务会议提出,要持续稳定股市,持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。相关举措一旦推出,要直达企业和群众,提高落地效率,确保实施效果。

  上述内容在贯彻去年中央经济工作会议精神的同时,又着重强调“持续”,笔者认为,该部署意义深远且重大。

  其一,资本市场在宏观经济全局中的战略地位在提升。

  股市作为经济的“晴雨表”,其稳定对于改善预期、提振信心以及促进消费和投资至关重要。

  去年12月份召开的中央经济工作会议强调,稳住楼市股市。今年年初,证监会召开的2025年系统工作会议在部署今年工作时,第一项重要工作就提出,坚持稳字当头,全力形成并巩固市场回稳向好势头。

  今年的《政府工作报告》首次把“稳住楼市股市”写进总体要求,并提出了具体要求,表明了顶层设计对于资本市场的重视度不断提升,资本市场支持实体经济高质量发展的枢纽功能日益增强。

  其二,稳市机制将保持政策的连贯性、稳定性和协同性。

  此次国常会提出的“要持续稳定股市”中的“持续”一词意味着稳市机制不是短期行为,而是一个长期持续的过程,体现的是政策的连贯性、稳定性和协同性。

  4月初,市场经历了一次非理性波动,关键时刻,中国人民银行、证监会、国家金融监督管理总局、国务院国资委等多部门密集部署,央行明确“必要时提供充足流动性支持”,中央汇金公司等“国家队”力量积极发挥类“平准基金”作用,央企集团、金融机构、上市公司“真金白银”实施增持、回购,多部门稳市“组合拳”协同发力,不仅稳住了市场波动,而且也有效引导了市场预期。

  由此来看,稳市机制通过制度供给的连贯性和政策工具的精准协同,不仅是应对短期风险的应急之策,也是推动资本市场高质量发展的长远布局。

  其三,稳市政策工具箱储备充足。

  “要持续稳定股市”,国常会对稳股市的最新表态也意味着我们有足够的政策储备能够“持续”“稳定”股市。

  实际上,从2024年央行创设证券、基金、保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款两项支持资本市场工具,到2025年《政府工作报告》提出“加强战略性力量储备和稳市机制建设”,再到近日多部门协同发力稳定资本市场,我国稳市机制日趋成熟,稳市政策工具箱也日益丰富。

  未来,在更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策背景下,降准降息、专项债、特别国债、两项结构性货币政策工具……政策工具箱储备充足,完全可以满足“持续稳定股市”。

  我们要坚定信心,相信中国资本市场有能力也有条件稳得住、走得好。

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