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  南方财经4月24日电,据证券时报,中国人民银行行长潘功胜在美国华盛顿特区出席二十国集团财长和央行行长会议时表示,当前全球经济充满不确定性,经济碎片化和贸易紧张局势加剧,扰乱全球产业链供应链,引发金融市场动荡,削弱全球经济增长动能,各方应加强合作,努力避免全球经济滑向“高摩擦、低信任”的轨道。贸易战、关税战没有赢家,单边主义、保护主义没有出路,不符合任何一方利益。中国将坚持对外开放,坚定支持自由贸易规则和多边贸易体制,推进普惠包容的经济全球化,维护全球经济和金融稳定。

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  中信里昂发布研报称,金沙中国(01928)今年首季经调整EBITDA按季下跌8%至5.45亿美元,与机构预期一致,但较该行预测低4%。季内集团收入市占率按季下跌0.7个百分点至22.8%,主要受澳门威尼斯人拖累。报告表示,澳门伦敦人第二期已全面投入营运,使酒店房间总存量达10800间,该行预期伦敦人的扩张速度应会加快。金沙中国2026年的EV/Ebitda为7.3倍,而拉斯维加斯金沙仍有计划将其于金沙中国的持股量提升至74.9%,暂维持“跑赢大市”评级。

  2024年高端啤酒巨头百威亚太交出了一份差强人意的成绩单,营收、盈利、销量、股权持有人应占溢利等数据均有所下降。

  数据显示,2024年百威亚太营收62.46亿美元,同比下滑8.9%;净利润7.5亿美元,同比下滑14.77%;销量方面为84.8亿公升,同比下滑8.8%;股权持有人应占溢利7.26亿美元,同比减少14.79%。

  其中,中国市场失利是百威亚太业绩下滑的原因所在。中国市场的销量同比减少11.8%,营收下滑13%,尤其2024年第四季度总销量同比减少18.9%。

  对于业绩不及预期的原因,百威亚太官方表示主要是因为消费意愿疲软、即饮渠道人流减少等。

  屋漏偏逢连夜雨,前不久有消息称百威亚太将会在2025年裁员数千人,虽说总部官方回应消息不实,但2024年人员“优化”已成为事实。百威亚太的员工数量的确从2021年的2.6万人减少到了2024年的只有2.1万人左右。相当于三年时间减少了大概5000名员工,减员比例约23%。

  业绩败退之际,2024年拿了432.4万美元(约3157万元人民币)的CEO杨克下课,继任者程衍俊能否带领百威亚太重整旗鼓,还需要打上一个问号。

  高端化受阻

  营收、盈利、销量齐降

  2月底,百威亚太公布了2024年财报。数据显示,2024年百威亚太营收62.46亿美元,同比下滑8.9%;净利润7.5亿美元,同比下滑14.77%;销量方面为84.8亿公升,同比下滑8.8%;股权持有人应占溢利7.26亿美元,同比减少14.79%。

  百威亚太主要在中国、韩国、印度、越南和其他亚太地区分销其啤酒品牌组合,包括百威、时代、科罗娜、福佳、凯狮及哈尔滨等。

  其中,中国市场表现不佳在很大程度上影响了百威亚太整个公司的业绩,毕竟早在2022年中国市场就为百威亚太贡献了超过75%的营收。

  2024年,百威亚太在中国市场销量锐减11.8%,收入及每百升收入分别下滑13%及1.4%,其中去年第四季度,中国市场销量减少18.9%,同时,其在中国市场的份额也减少1.49个百分点。

  百威亚太认为原因在于消费者消费意愿疲弱、业务布局上更为着重的即饮渠道的人流减缓及消费减少。

  为此,百威亚太在财报中表示,“2025年我们在中国的首要任务,是利用我们的品牌组合和营销途径推进策略执行,借此重新步入市场份额增长轨道。”

  然而,要夺回失去的市场份额,并非易事。

  目前,国内啤酒行业已经进入缩量阶段。据国家统计局所发布的数据显示,2024年我国规模以上企业啤酒产量为3521.3万千升,同比下降0.6%。

  产能持续下滑,很大程度上就是因为整体需求在逐渐降低,在这种情况下,各大啤酒品牌之间的竞争只会越来越激烈。

  其次是国内本土啤酒品牌的崛起,给百威这个高端啤酒行业的老大哥造成威胁,包括华润、青岛和燕京等在内的国产啤酒品牌都在加速高端化进程。

  数据显示,2015年时百威亚太在国内高端啤酒市场的占有率近50%,目前已经下滑到了40%左右。背后是本土品牌的强势突围:比如燕京U8凭借年轻化策略实现全国化突破,华润旗下喜力在高基数上再录两成增长,而百威的“堆头打折”却难掩动销疲软。

  此前,有北京大型商超工作人员向酒业内参表示,青岛、燕京都在做高端化,而且动销更加可观,百威在实际生活场景中的消费仍不足本土品牌。

  “门口的堆头和打折主要还是为了清理一下库存,放在货架上销售得太慢了。旺季还稍微好,毕竟所有的啤酒都在动销,但到了淡季品牌分化就很明显,百威的动销速度的确不如常见的品牌。”该工作人员如是道。

  65岁高龄新CEO程衍俊面临地狱级挑战

  营收和净利润双双下滑的业绩表现使得百威痛定思痛决心换帅,和财报一同发布的还包括2024年了拿了432.4万美元(约3157万元人民币)的前任CEO杨克下课离开,由在百威工作29年的中国籍资深员工程衍俊接任。

  值得关注的是,新接任者程衍俊,是百威亚太该岗位近年来的首位中国籍CEO。公告履历显示,程衍俊,65岁,亦获委任为百威英博亚太区首席执行官,自2025年4月1日起生效。

  其于1996年加入百威亚太,已在此工作29年,曾担任安海斯-布希中国首席酿酒师,负责生产及管理;2005年被任命为哈尔滨啤酒集团首席执行官;2009年至2024年,担任亚太地区供应链与物流副总裁,覆盖中国、韩国、印度和东南亚地区。

  4月1日正式上任CEO之后,4月7日上午,程衍俊便到访中国酒业协会。这是其上任以来首次公开发言。

  程衍俊在座谈会上表示,百威亚太注重全价值链的管理效率。当下工厂智能化已成为酒业转型升级的核心方向,百威亚太建立了从原料种植到包装回收的闭环管理体系,开发了基于物联网的能耗监控平台,正在探索废弃物资源化再利用路径。

  程衍俊还介绍了百威亚太通过水资源保护、可持续农业、气候行动、循环包装构建覆盖产业链各环节的可持续发展体系,同时希望百威亚太能与中国酒业协会一起助推中国市场的啤酒文化体验,为产业发展培育更丰沃的土壤。

  不过,新CEO程衍俊面临的挑战堪称地狱级:既要扭转高端产品组合拖累销量的困局,又要应对本土品牌渠道下沉的攻势。浦银国际的分析一针见血——2025年啤酒终端需求难见起色,百威亟需找到“用更少资源创造更高价值”的破局之道。

  机构下调盈利预期或目标股价

  百威表现疲软情况之下,券商机构纷纷下调其盈利预期或目标股价。

  海通国际发表报告指出,百威亚太虽然管理层明确了今年提升市场占有率的目标,并采取改善库存管理、拓展家庭渠道、推出创新产品等一系列措施,但该行认为,趋势逆转颇具挑战性。该行认为,集团今年更可能是战略调整期,而非收获期,短期业绩或因改革及外部冲击而受压。预计集团2025至2027年的每股盈利分别为5美分、5美分、及6美分,目标价由10.1港元下调至7.9港元,维持“中性”评级。

  建银国际预计其2025年一季度在中国维持低库存状态,可能导致批发渠道销量同比出现个位数中段下滑。基于销量下降及产品组合不利变化,该行预计西区亚太收入将下降10.4%(销量/均价分别下降9.0%/1.5%)。不过,尽管2025年一季度表现疲软,但不会改变该行关于销量自3月起环比改善的预测,在中国市场尤其如此,支撑因素包括低基数效应及百威亚太重夺市场份额的策略。该行维持目标价9.50港元及“跑赢大市”评级。

  另外,摩根大通认为,尽管百威亚太面临挑战,但韩国市场的坚韧表现和中国市场复苏预期已在股价中得到体现。自年初以来,百威亚太股价累计上涨25%,预测市盈率从13.5倍上升至19倍,反映了市场对中国经济复苏的预期。因此,摩根大通认为当前股价已合理反映这些因素,决定维持“中性”评级。

  麦格理发布研报称,下调百威亚太2025/2026年纯利预测2.3%及2.1%,因为假设在中国市场的高基数下,利润率扩张步伐较温和。报告指,百威亚太管理层的目标是每年维持或提高股息,2025财政年度的隐含现金股息率为4.8%。麦格理降该股目标价1%至12.8港元,评级“跑赢大市”。

  韩国LG电子公司周四表示,受季度销售额破纪录的推动,公司第一季度净利润同比增长近50%。

  根据一份监管文件,该公司在1月至3月期间实现净利润8756亿韩元(约合6.124亿美元),比去年同期的5854亿韩元增长49.6%。

  第一季度的销售额为22.73万亿韩元,比去年同期增加了7.8%,创下了历史最高纪录。

  营业利润为1.25万亿韩元,比去年同期的1.33万亿韩元减少了5.7%。

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