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  汇通财经APP讯——在亚洲市场周四交易时段,日元维持强势,主要因对全球贸易谈判前景的悲观预期推升市场避险情绪。此外,有消息指出,日本可能即将与美国达成新一轮贸易协议,市场亦押注日本央行(BoJ)将于2025年持续加息,这些因素共同支撑了日元的走势。

  日本财政大臣加藤胜信在G7会议上表示,美国的关税措施令人极为失望,正在对金融市场造成不确定性。

  日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正计划于4月30日前往美国,展开关税相关的磋商。

  美元因美联储鸽派预期承压

  尽管近期市场对美联储独立性问题的担忧有所缓解,但市场依然普遍预计美联储将在6月重启降息周期,并于年内至少三次下调利率。与日本央行加息形成政策分歧,这令美元承压,未能有效摆脱多年来低点的阴影。

  美国财长斯科特·贝森特否认白宫正考虑单方面降低亚洲国家商品的关税,并指出美国正等待亚洲国家率先采取行动。

  技术面支撑日元走势,美元兑日元短期阻力明显从技术面来看,虽然美元兑日元一度突破143.00及3-4月跌幅的23.6%斐波那契回撤位,但上涨动能有限。

  技术指标显示,短期支撑142.45-142.00区间,但若跌破142.00,恐进一步回落至141.00甚至140.50一线。若价格重返并站稳143.00上方,仍需突破143.55及144.35关键阻力,方有望迎来更深层反弹。

  编辑观点:

  尽管市场风险情绪部分回暖,但地缘政治风险与贸易担忧情绪仍主导投资者心理,加上日本通胀持续高企、日本央行转向鹰派,美日政策分歧短期内难以缓和。

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