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幽谷花径内的阻力突然减小:受众群体与市场需求分析
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幽谷花径内的阻力突然减小:受众群体与市场需求分析

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  界面新闻记者|冯赛琪

  黄金价格已坐上过山车。

  据央视新闻报道,当地时间4月22日,美国总统特朗普将大幅降低对中国的高额关税。当日早些时间,他还改口称无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔,希望鲍威尔在利率问题上采取更加积极的行动。

  市场普遍认为,黄金作为避险资产受消息影响高位下跌。

  4月23日,COMEX黄金期货一度跌至3200美元附近,国内黄金市场同步调整,SHFE黄金主力合约当日跌幅达4.55%。

  4月24日,黄金看涨情绪回升,现货黄金最新报3355.72美元/盎司,日内涨超2%;COMEX黄金期货主力最新报3365.3美元/盎司,日内涨2.13%。

  4月份以来,COMEX黄金快速刷新着最高历史记录。4月11日,COMEX黄金期货历史性突破3200美元/盎司,4月16日,突破3300美元/盎司,之后连续两日突破3400美元/盎司、3500美元/盎司,创下历史高位。

  黄金价格屡创新高,又频现剧烈回调。投资者情绪在贪婪与恐慌之间反复拉扯。

  对参与黄金交易的金融机构而言,黄金行情的宽幅波动为他们提供了稳定的收益来源,金融机构依托产品与流动性,在这轮黄金牛市行情中持续获利。

  目前,国内有14只黄金相关的商品型ETF,主要投资于上海黄金交易所挂盘交易的黄金现货合约等黄金品种。

  根据最新基金规模排名,前五名黄金主题ETF分别是华安黄金ETF(641.93亿元)、易方达黄金ETF(272.13亿元)、博时黄金ETF(199.96亿元)、国泰黄金ETF(118.21亿元)、华夏黄金ETF(25.42亿元)。

  从2024年各类黄金ETF的管理费收入情况来看,头部规模的产品的虹吸效应在竞争中愈发明显。

黄金主题ETF2024年度管理人报酬、托管费   数据来源:wind

  华安黄金ETF是绝对的龙头老大。根据2024年年报,华安黄金ETF的管理人报酬突破亿元,达到1.06亿元,同比增长近100%,此前四年的年度管理人报酬均在5000万元附近。今年一季度末,该ETF份额继续增加了超过10亿份,随着规模的持续放大,其管理费收入也将快速增长。

  截至3月31日,华安黄金ETF的一季度净值增长率为18.64%,同期业绩比较基准增长率为18.87%。

  紧随其后的博时黄金ETF和易方达黄金ETF2024年管理人报酬分别为5978.24万元和4434.57万元。

  相比之下,受制于规模,部分ETF的盈利能力不足。以嘉实上海金ETF为例,2024年其管理人报酬仅为39.34万元。类似的还有天弘、中银、南方等上海金ETF,年度管理费均低于100万元。

  费率方面,大部分黄金类ETF保持着0.5%管理费率。

  不过,也有部分ETF调低了费率。2024年9月,天弘上海金ETF管理费率为0.25%。2024年11月,富国上海金ETF将管理费率调至0.15%,是市面上费率最低的一支黄金ETF。

  期货也是黄金在资本市场交易的重要组成部分。与ETF等现货类投资工具不同,黄金期货具有更强的杠杆属性和交易灵活性。

  2025年至今,黄金期货交易量最多的前十家期货公司是中信期货、国泰君安期货、东证期货、中泰期货(1461.HK)、国信期货、华泰期货、银河期货、海通期货(872595.NQ)、广发期货、华闻期货。上期所最新数据显示,中信期货交易黄金993.36万手,国泰君安期货紧随其后,交易914.15万手。东证期货交易407.24万手,排名第三。从黄金的成交排名来看,开年以来,黄金期货品种成交量大的交易日多发生在4月份。

  黄金期货的交投活跃,带动了期货公司的经纪业务营收。

  根据多家期货公司披露的年报信息,黄金期货品种代理交易在过去一年明显增长。

  2024年,创元期货(832280.NQ)黄金期货品种代理交易81.68万手,同比增长39.85%,代理交易金额4611.99亿元,同比增长72.97%。长江期货(872186.NQ)年报显示,黄金期货品种代理交易56.29万手,同比增长192.63%,代理交易金额3329.15亿元,同比增长270.96%。

  市场人士认为,黄金持续新高,受益于黄金投资需求激增影响。

  南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹表示,近期市场避险情绪升温,避险资产日元与黄金继续受到追捧,4月来全球黄金ETF规模加速增加。

  夏莹莹表示,黄金中长期依然看涨,但短期来看,金价持续性快速上涨后,国内黄金投资已现拥挤现象,黄金期货指数持仓接近数年高位,且国内较伦敦现货溢价处于偏高水位,因此需警惕多头获利了结压力。从事件上,主要关注衰退恐慌以及中美贸易冲突和解下的调整。操作上,仍建议投资者分批买入、回调买入的操作思路。

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