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亲亲亲吻鱼2 - 温柔与责任的双重考验
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亲亲亲吻鱼2 - 温柔与责任的双重考验

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证券日报网讯4月24日晚间,壹石通发布公告称,公司计划于2025年5月7日(星期三)下午14:00-15:00举行2024年度暨2025年第一季度业绩说明会。

  拉脱维亚央行行长、欧洲央行管理委员会成员马丁斯·卡扎克斯(MārtiņšKazāks)周四在IMF-世界银行春季会议期间接受采访时表示,尽管贸易关税带来巨大不确定性,但这正是欧洲确立其经济与地缘政治超级大国地位的战略机遇期。

  他表示,2008年金融危机后,欧盟的资本市场联盟、财政联盟与服务单一市场建设长期停滞,“需要政治勇气完成这些决策,以强化欧洲经济并确立全球地位”。

  在欧洲央行4月降息25个基点后,这位决策层成员坦言:鉴于能见度极低,政策制定将“逐次会议调整”。当前全球经济的脆弱性“远超寻常”,金融市场情绪突变需严密监控。

  虽然美欧4月初宣布的关税措施(美国对钢铝产品征税、欧盟对哈雷摩托等报复性关税)暂缓90天至7月,但卡扎克斯警告基线情景下:多重可能结果概率分布高度重叠,政策不确定性指数已逼近历史峰值。

  关税阴云笼罩美股财报季。

  今晚,多只知名美股因业绩爆雷遭遇猛烈抛售,IBM一度大跌超8%,公司最新披露财报未能打消投资者对关税和美国联邦政府削减支出可能影响公司业务的担忧;宝洁一度跌超5%,在关税政策愈发不明朗的背景下,公司大幅下调全年销售和利润预期;诺基亚一度大跌超10%,公司预计美国关税将对第二季利润造成2000万欧元至3000万欧元的短期影响。

  财报季爆雷暂未影响美股整体市场,美股三大指数盘初集体拉升,纳指、标普500指数涨超1%,美股大型科技股多数走强。华尔街人士分析称,特朗普政府释放的关税缓和信号是美股反弹的主要原因。

  另外,美联储官员的最新讲话也备受市场关注。美联储理事沃勒表示,如果就业市场严重下滑,可能会造成美联储更多次数、更加迅速地降息。美国克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·哈马克表示,如果有明确的经济方向证据,美联储可能最早在6月采取行动。

  美股财报的雷

  今晚,美股开盘后,多家披露财报的上市公司股价大跌,具体来看:

  诺基亚一度大跌超10%,财报显示,2025年第一季度净销售额为43.9亿欧元,按固定汇率计算较上年同期下降3%,低于分析师预期的44.1亿欧元;调整后营业利润为1.56亿欧元,同比大跌74%,大幅低于市场预期的2.796亿欧元;调整后每股收益0.03欧元,低于预估的0.04欧元。

  诺基亚预计美国关税将对第二季利润造成2000万至3000万欧元的短期影响,预计全年调整后营业利润为19亿至24亿欧元。

  IBM一度大跌超8%,公司周三盘后公布的财报显示,第一季度营收为145亿美元,同比增长1%,超出市场预期;调整后每股收益为1.60美元,高于分析师预期的1.42美元。分析指出,这份财报未能打消投资者对关税和美国联邦政府削减支出可能影响公司业务的担忧。

  宝洁一度跌超5%,最新公布的财报显示,2025财年第三季度的销售额为198亿美元,同比下降2.0%,不及市场预期;经调整后每股收益为1.54美元,略高于分析师普遍预计的1.53美元。在关税政策愈发不明朗的背景下,宝洁公司大幅下调全年销售和利润预期,预计全年有机销售额同比增长约2%。这一增幅低于该公司1月份的预测,当时该公司预计销售额将增长3%至5%。

  宝洁CEO乔恩·莫勒在声明中表示:“在充满挑战且动荡的消费市场和地缘政治环境下,本季度我们实现了温和的有机销售额和每股收益增长。我们正在对近期前景进行适当调整,以反映潜在的市场状况。”

  康卡斯特盘初一度大跌超8%,财报显示,第一季度营收同比下降0.6%至298.9亿美元,分析师预期为297.7亿美元;调整后每股摊薄收益为1.09美元,高于分析师预期的0.99美元。期内康卡斯特流失了19.9万名宽带客户,截至季度末,订阅用户数为3160万。此外,康卡斯特流失了42.75万名视频订阅用户,因为其观众继续放弃有线电视。

  关税的变数

  北京时间4月24日晚间,美股开盘后,三大指数全线走高,截至发稿,道指涨0.52%,纳指涨1.66%,标普500指数涨1.15%。

  美股大型科技股多数走强,博通大涨超4%,微软、英伟达、特斯拉、台积电ADR涨超2%,谷歌、亚马逊、Meta涨超1%。

  华尔街人士分析称,特朗普政府释放的关税缓和信号是美股反弹的主要原因。据福克斯商业频道,有消息人士称,白宫内部的人士正在提醒华尔街高管,他们正在接近与印度达成原则性贸易协议。

  PallasCapitalAdvisors首席投资官GauravMallik表示,尽管听到政府在关税问题上的语气趋于温和令人鼓舞,但当前股市仍处于震荡区间,因为市场的最终目标是要么取消关税,要么达成实质性贸易协议。

  4月24日晚间,据央视网报道,美方高级官员透露,特朗普政府正考虑多种对华关税方案。

  第一种方案,对中国商品征收的关税税率可能降至大约50%~65%。

  第二种方案则被称为“分级方案”,美方将把进口自中国的商品分为所谓“对美国国家安全不构成威胁”和所谓“对美国国家利益具有战略意义”的商品。

  美媒称,在“分级方案”里,美方将对前一类商品征收35%的关税,对第二类商品的关税税率至少为100%。白宫新闻秘书莱维特称,特朗普在对华关税问题上的立场“没有软化”。

  美联储官员密集发声

  美东时间4月24日,美联储理事沃勒表示,如果美国总统特朗普坚持重大的关税政策,美国企业加大裁员力度也不会让他感到惊讶。

  沃勒警告称,如果裁员,价格可能会上涨。7月1日之前不可能看到关税造成的重大影响,将在下半年对关税的影响有更好地认识,强烈认为关税将带来一次性的价格效应。

  沃勒表示,如果就业市场严重下滑,可能会造成美联储更多次数、更加迅速地降息。

  沃勒指出,央行的独立性对美国经济至关重要。美联储主席有权发表任何关于美联储的言论;尝试忽视政治问题,专注于美联储的使命。总统可以畅所欲言。

  同一天,美国克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·哈马克(BethHammack)呼吁在高度不确定性的情况下对货币政策保持耐心,如果有明确的经济方向证据,美联储可能最早在6月采取行动。

  哈马克在接受采访时表示:“我们将密切关注数据,每次开会时,我都会以开放的心态考虑,现在到底是应该继续保持耐心,还是应该采取行动。如果我们在6月之前有明确和令人信服的数据,如果我们知道在那个时间点采取哪种行动是正确的,那么我认为委员会将采取行动。”

  美国纽约州民主党总检察长莱蒂西亚・詹姆斯(LetitiaJames)以及其他11个州的首席检察官正在起诉美国总统特朗普,他们称特朗普推行的一系列关税“颠覆了宪法秩序,给美国经济带来了混乱”。

  在周三提交的法庭文件中,来自纽约州、亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州、康涅狄格州、特拉华州、伊利诺伊州、缅因州、明尼苏达州、内华达州、新墨西哥州、俄勒冈州和佛蒙特州的民主党总检察长们声称,特朗普“没有法定权力征收这些关税”,他们认为这些关税实际上是未经国会批准就对美国民众征收的巨额税款。

  纽约州民主党州长凯茜・霍楚尔(KathyHochul)也在就特朗普政府试图取消当地交通通行费一事对其提起诉讼,她对这起关税诉讼表示支持。

  她在一份声明中称:“特朗普总统鲁莽的关税政策使消费者的成本大幅飙升,并在全国范围内引发了经济混乱。纽约州正挺身而出,抵制美国历史上最大规模的联邦增税行为。总检察长詹姆斯和我正代表纽约州的消费者参与这起诉讼,因为我们不能让特朗普总统把我们的国家推向经济衰退。”

  白宫发言人库什・德赛(KushDesai)在一份声明中为关税政策进行了辩护,并就这起诉讼抨击了詹姆斯,称“像莱蒂西亚・詹姆斯这样的民主党人,再次将对特朗普总统的政治迫害置于保护选民的安全和福祉之上”。

  周三提起的诉讼指出,特朗普的关税政策导致“在购买对各州经济至关重要的必要设备和物资时成本增加”,并且违反了美国宪法中规定的三权分立原则。

  亚利桑那州总检察长克里斯・梅斯(KrisMayes)在周三的新闻发布会上表示:“总统完全没有法律权力颁布这些关税。这些关税是非法的,如果被允许实施,它们将极大地提高我们州各个角落的亚利桑那州居民的物价。”

  梅斯补充道:“这种损害并非只是理论上的。它正在实时发生。连锁反应已经开始显现。”梅斯列举了物价上涨、市场反应以及全球合作伙伴的顾虑等情况。

  她还说:“随着一些公司开始暂停从海外发货,洛杉矶港的货运量大幅下降。旅游业也在下滑。”

  一些法律学者表示,有可能会有法官判定特朗普对紧急状态法的使用是非法的,从而推翻特朗普关税的企图。但任何一起诉讼都可能需要数月甚至数年才能得出结论,而这很可能是在特朗普所谓对等关税90天暂停期结束之后。

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