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专题:聚焦2025年IMF和世行春季年会

“贸易紧张局势就像一口沸腾已久的锅,现在沸腾得快要溢出来了。”

当地时间17日,国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁格奥尔基耶娃在美国华盛顿特区发表讲话称,全球贸易体系的重启使得世界经济的韧性再次受到考验。“市场波动加剧,贸易政策不确定性更是达到顶峰。”

格奥尔基耶娃表示,受此影响IMF将于下周公布的《世界经济展望》报告中显著下调了经济增长预测,但不包括衰退。一些国家的通胀预测也将被上调。

2025年世界银行和IMF春季会议将于4月21日至26日在美国华盛顿特区举行,期间将发布《世界经济展望》和《全球金融稳定报告》。

紧张得快沸腾溢出

格奥尔基耶娃表示,“贸易紧张局势就像一口沸腾已久的锅,现在沸腾得快要溢出来了。”

她解释称,全球经济一体化使大量人口摆脱了贫困,整个世界变得更美好,但并非所有人都从中受益。

“一些社区因工作岗位流向海外而变得空洞化,低成本劳动力的日益普及压低了工资水平,全球供应链中断导致物价上涨。”她补充道:“许多人将生活中感受到的不公平归咎于国际经济体系。”此外,关税和非关税壁垒导致的贸易扭曲加剧了人们对多边体系的负面看法,认为该体系未能提供公平的竞争环境。

“在很大程度上,我们看到的正是信任被侵蚀的结果——对国际体系的信任,以及国家之间的信任。”

不确定性代价高昂

格奥尔基耶娃表示,在综合考虑近期所有关税的上调、暂停、升级和豁免的情况下,美国的有效关税税率已跃升至数代人未曾经历过的水平。

与此同时,各国采取反制措施和大国对峙的溢出效应使得较小的国家陷入困境。

“较小的发达经济体和大多数新兴市场国家的增长更多地依赖贸易,因此更容易受到影响,包括面临更紧缩的金融环境。”此外,低收入国家还面临着援助资金锐减的额外挑战。

她警告称,这将带来严重的后果。

首先,不确定性代价高昂。现代供应链的复杂性意味着一国进口会流入种类繁多的国内产品中。一件商品的成本可能受到数十个国家关税的影响。在双边关税税率上下浮动的环境下,商业规划变得困难。这将导致海上船只不知驶向哪个港口,投资决策被推迟,金融市场动荡,预防性储蓄增加。不确定性持续的时间越长,成本就越高。

其次,不断上升的贸易壁垒会直接影响经济增长。与所有税收一样,提高关税增加的收入是以减少和转移经济活动为代价的——过去的证据表明,更高的关税并非仅由贸易伙伴承担,而是与进口商和国内消费者一起分担。

其三,保护主义从长远来看会侵蚀生产力,尤其是对规模较小的经济体。这些措施会降低有效资源配置的动力,并损害创新。

每个人都会受影响

格奥尔基耶娃警告,“长期的高不确定性会增加金融市场承压的风险。”

她以本月早些时候美债和美元市场出现的异常波动为例,美国总统特朗普所谓的“对等关税”政策引发市场巨震,并导致美国市场罕见的股债汇“三杀”。仅关税政策宣布的两天内,标普500指数市值蒸发5万亿美元。与此同时,10年期美债收益率上周一度飙升至4.592%,根据伦敦证券交易所的数据,截至4月11日的五天内,美债收益率上涨了约50个基点。

“此类动向应被视为警示。如果金融状况恶化,每个人都会受到影响。”她补充道。

她敦促各国需要采取措施,确保在多级世界中展开合作。

在贸易政策方面,目标必须是确保最大的参与者之间达成一项协议,以保持开放并提供更公平的竞争环境——从而在全球范围内重启降低关税税率的趋势,并减少非关税壁垒和扭曲。

格奥尔基耶娃呼吁各国政策制定者采取明智措施应对,以确保一个更加平衡、更具韧性的世界经济。“我们需要一个更具韧性的世界经济,而不是走向分裂。”

  来源:独角兽早知道iponews

  美东时间4月17日,中国茶饮品牌霸王茶姬正式在纳斯达克挂牌交易,成为中国茶饮赴美第一股,股票代码为“CHA”。花旗集团、摩根士丹利、中金公司和德意志银行是此次发行的主承销商。

  霸王茶姬此次IPO最终定价为28美元,在定价区间(26美元至28美元)的高端,发行1,468万份美国存托股票(ADS),募资金额4.11亿美元,市值51.39亿美元。

  在霸王茶姬的IPO中,投资者表达出的兴趣是可认购美国存托股票(ADS)数量的数倍,投资者包括中国的基金和全球纯做多机构。

  文件显示,鼎晖投资、RWCAssetManagement、RWCAssetAdvisors(US)、安联环球投资亚太有限公司和欧力士亚洲资产管理旗下基金表示有意按IPO价格认购总计价值不超过2.05亿美元的ADS。

  据招股书,霸王茶姬是一家领先的优质茶饮品牌,提供健康美味的新鲜茶饮。

  霸王茶姬创立于2017年,灵感来源自1970年代以来国际咖啡连锁店如何将喝咖啡变成一种全球生活方式和社会观念。这一成功让公司相信喝茶也需要改变——并促使公司利用技术和品牌的力量,让喝茶成为一种连接世界各地人民和文化的现代体验。

  如今,在霸王茶姬成立近八年后已成为中国最大、增长最快、最受欢迎的高端现制茶饮品牌。

  根据艾瑞咨询的数据:截至2024年12月31日,公司的网络包括6,440家门店,其中6,284家位于中国。这一规模是中国所有优质现制茶饮品牌中最大的门店网络。

  2023年及2024年,公司在中国及海外产生的GMV分别达到人民币108亿元及人民币295亿元。以中国境内产生的GMV衡量,公司在2022年至2024年间在中国拥有超过1,000家门店的所有鲜茶饮品牌中增长最快。

  根据时趣搜索引擎的数据,自2023年10月起,我们在中国所有现制茶饮品牌中,在中国社交影响力指数中排名第一。

  具体来看,2022年、2023年和2024年,霸王茶姬在中国产生的GMV分别约79%、87%和91%来自招牌茶拿铁产品,其中约44%、57%和61%在中国产生的GMV来自最畅销的三款茶拿铁。

  截至2024年12月31日,霸王茶姬拥有包括覆盖中国34个省级行政区中的32个的6,284家门店和156家海外门店。其中,6,271家为特许经营茶馆,169家为公司自营茶馆。公司直接管理的茶馆共计398家,包括霸王茶姬所有的公司自营茶馆和229家特许经营茶馆。

  霸王茶姬的茶馆数量从截至2023年12月31日的3,511家增加83.4%至截至2024年12月31日的6,440家。

  公司在中国及海外产生的总GMV由2022年的人民币12.937亿元增长734.3%至2023年的人民币107.928亿元,并于2024年进一步增长172.9%至人民币294.577亿元。

  财务方面,霸王茶姬的净收入从2022年的人民币4.917亿元增长843.8%至2023年的人民币46.402亿元。2024年净收入为人民币124.056亿元(16.996亿美元),较2023年的人民币46.402亿元同比增长167.4%。

  2024年公司净利润为25.15亿元,净利润率为20.3%。

  霸王茶姬在中国每家门店每月售出的平均杯数从2022年的8,981杯增至2024年的25,099杯。在中国门店的每月平均GMV从2022年的人民币17.75万元增至2024年的人民币51.17万元。

  根据艾瑞咨询的数据,以商品交易总额(GMV)衡量,中国现制茶饮市场正以21.7%的复合年增长率从2019年的1,022亿元人民币增长至2024年的2,727亿元人民币,并预计到2028年将达到4,260亿元人民币。

  特别是高端现制茶饮细分市场,高端鲜制茶饮料细分市场以平均售价每杯17.0元人民币(约合2.5美元)及以上为定义,其占整体鲜制茶饮料市场的比重从2019年的10.9%增长至2024年的25.9%。

  这一更快的增长主要得益于消费者对更高质量产品的需求、多样化的消费场景以及对健康益处的认识不断提高。预计到2028年,高端鲜制茶饮料细分市场的总GMV将达到1671亿元人民币,占整个鲜制茶饮料市场的31.7%。

  从全球来看,增长势头同样强劲。根据艾瑞咨询的数据,作为全球第二大非酒精饮料类别,全球茶饮料市场在2024年的GMV为4,671亿美元,预计到2028年将达到6,019亿美元。

  现制茶饮料在海外市场持续受到欢迎。受人均收入增加、茶叶消费者群体扩大以及茶叶价格实惠和健康益处吸引更多咖啡饮用者的潜力推动,全球现制茶饮料市场预计到2028年将达到1,220亿美元,2024年至2028年的复合年增长率为18.9%。

  本次霸王茶姬美股IPO募资金额拟用于扩展公司在中国和海外的门店网络;开发和创新新产品;建设海外供应链网络;投资技术以支持业务发展和运营;以及用于一般公司和营运资本用途。

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