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  中国5G惊现利好传闻!

  德国《经济周刊》等媒体最近称,德国新政府联盟协议删除针对华为的“可信国家”限制条款,转而采用“可信技术标准”。券商研究机构认为,如果这一政策转向属实,将对国内通信产业链构成显著利好。

  虽然这一消息并未获得有关权威渠道的证实,但市场对此的反应相当热烈。今天早盘,6G概念股集体拉升,通信板块更是出现大面积涨停行情。盛路通信、创远信科、硕贝德、海能达、灿勤科技等多股涨停。

  那么,这一传闻的影响究竟有多大,是否存在发酵的空间?

  利好突发

  谁也不曾想到,通信板块会在这个时候蹦出来。今天早上,通信板块出现大面积涨停,午后A股5G概念持续走高。截至今日收盘,盛路通信、创远信科分别午后涨停,此前硕贝德、海能达封板,本川智能、通宇通讯、金信诺、信维通信、中兴通讯等快速跟涨。

  引发板块异动的主要原因可能还是与来自德国的一则消息有关。

  据媒体报道,德国联盟协议中早先4月9日的版本的一句话暗示,来自中国等国家的零部件可能会被排除在关键基础设施的敏感领域之外。在这个版本中的第9页段落指出,在关键基础设施的敏感领域,未来只能安装来自值得信赖国家的组件。而值得信赖的国家往往指西方国家。

  不过,4月10日上午,事情有了变化。三个新执政党——基民盟、基社盟和社民党的网站上悄无声息地换了联盟协议的新版本。在这个版本中,第 9页仅指出只能安装“vertrauenswürdigeKomponenten”(“受信任的组件”)。没有了“值得信赖的原产国”这样的字样,更没有提到“华为”和“中兴”的名字。

  《经济周刊》等媒体指出,这意味着,备受争议的中国电信供应商华为的组件被允许留在德国5G移动网络中——不仅是当前的5G技术,还有未来的几代技术。有分析人士认为,如果德国最终没有排除中国5G,甚至未来继续使用中国的6G等设备,势必会为其他欧洲国家起到榜样的作用。

  影响有多大?

  那么,此次利好传闻的影响究竟有多大?有券商研究机构点评认为,华为5G海外建设有望再开绿灯,相关产业链迎来利好。

  该机构表示,德国作为欧盟经济龙头,其政策调整具有示范效应,可能推动意大利、西班牙等尚未明确禁用华为的国家跟进松绑。若欧洲市场逐步开放,华为5G设备及解决方案的海外订单有望回升,直接利好其通信设备供应链。

  另外,新规强调“可信技术”而非“可信国家”,表明欧洲在技术评估上更趋务实,认可华为在5G专利(全球占比18%)及设备性能上的优势。这将增强国际市场对华为技术标准的接受度,进一步推动国产半导体(如华为海思供应链)、操作系统(鸿蒙生态)、服务器(鲲鹏产业链)的全球化渗透。

  该研究机构还表示,德国政策调整反映欧美在围堵华为问题上出现分歧,美国“技术脱钩”战略的效力被削弱。华为有望通过欧洲市场的突破,优化全球供应链布局,降低单一市场依赖风险,利好海外业务占比较高的华为合作伙伴。

  短期看,欧洲政策松动将直接提振华为通信设备及上游零部件的需求预期;中长期看,技术标准认可度的提升将加速华为全产业链(5G、半导体、智能汽车、云计算)的全球化拓展。建议重点关注5G基站核心部件、光通信、半导体设备及华为生态链企业的业绩弹性与估值修复机会。

  值得注意的是,今天国内也有一条利好助攻通讯板块。今天上午,工业和信息化部信息通信发展司司长谢存表示,下一步,在拓展网络建设和应用的广度上下功夫,持续提升5G和千兆光网“双千兆”网络覆盖广度,体系化推进算力网络发展。深入实施“5G+工业互联网”512工程升级版和标识“贯通”三年行动,开展5G应用“扬帆”行动重点城市总结评估,持续推动典型行业和重点领域的规模应用。

  责编:罗晓霞

  排版:王璐璐

  校对:王朝全

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