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4月18日,HTFX外汇表示,尽管近期油价有所回升,但整体复苏仍面临关税政策的不确定性。特别是对于石油出口国而言,关税政策的持续紧张局势使得市场前景不明朗。

  HTFX外汇认为,关税政策的不确定性对油价产生了显著影响。尽管本周油价有所反弹,但与四个月前相比,仍有较大差距。许多石油出口国无法承受油价长期低迷的现状,他们迫切希望油价能够快速回升。

  HTFX外汇进一步分析,石油出口国,如安哥拉、尼日利亚和沙特阿拉伯等,正面临巨大压力。油价下跌威胁到这些国家的预算和金融稳定。沙特阿拉伯的预算赤字可能会因油价持续低迷而扩大到750亿美元。此外,俄罗斯的旗舰原油品种乌拉尔原油价格也大幅下跌,这对依赖石油和天然气收入的国家经济构成了严重挑战。

  HTFX外汇还提到,尽管有迹象显示石油进口量有所增加,但未来能否保持这一进口速度仍是一个未知数。对于石油出口国来说,更紧迫的问题是关税战将持续多久。如果关税战持续时间过长,可能会导致全球经济衰退和石油需求下降。

  HTFX外汇总结认为,尽管油价近期有所回升,但关税政策的不确定性仍然对石油市场构成重大挑战。石油出口国需要密切关注关税政策的变化,并做好应对市场波动的准备。投资者在当前市场环境下应保持谨慎,合理调整投资组合,以应对可能出现的市场风险。

  本周,A股整体小幅震荡上扬,继北证50回补4月7日向下跳空缺口后,上证50也成功收复所有失地,科创50指数则坚守1000点大关,创业板指亦围绕1900点展开激烈争夺。

  市场成交量继续萎缩,周五甚至跌破1万亿元,创去年“9·24”行情以来最低成交。全周成交5.54万亿元,亦为同期最低(完整周),显示市场观望气氛较为浓郁,后市或还有反复。

  两融余额结束了连续3周的大幅净卖出,转为小幅净买入7.16亿元,这显示了市场信心恢复的新信号。电子行业本周获得逾28亿元融资净买入,汽车、基础化工均获得超10亿元净买入,有色金属、医药生物、国防军工等也都获得超亿元净买入。计算机则被融资客净卖出逾20亿元,非银金融、银行、通信净卖出也超10亿元。

  另据Wind数据统计,银行本周获得逾130亿元主力资金净流入,为唯一净流入超百亿元的行业,商贸零售、基础化工、房地产、食品饮料均获得超40亿元净流入,公用事业、计算机等也获得超30亿元净流入。电子遭主力资金净流出逾40亿元,有色金属净流出逾32亿元,电力设备净流出逾23亿元。

  展望后市,中泰证券指出,在中美核心矛盾并未缓解、总量政策仍将保持克制的背景下,市场仍将处于“高波动——分化加剧”的运行特征中。防御类资产依然具有较高配置价值。长端国债,以及高股息红利资产如电力、公用事业等方向,具备估值支撑与现金流安全边际。黄金、核电、军工等“安全类资产”或受益于全球地缘风险上升。

  市场热点方面,银行股本周表现强劲,板块指数5日全红,累计上涨4.68%,几乎收出光头光脚的中阳线,并连续3日创历史新高。中、农、工、建四大行集体创历史新高(复权,下同),成都银行、上海银行等亦刷新历史纪录。

  虽然银行股持续上涨,但截至本周五收盘,42家上市银行中,仅招商银行股价勉强收在净资产之上,其他全部破净,市净率中位数约为0.58倍,最低的民生银行仅0.32倍。

  此外,银行股市盈率全部低于10倍,中位数约为5.92倍,最高的郑州银行市盈率仅为8.92倍,最低的青农商行市盈率更是只有3.9倍。

  在低市盈率、低市净率的背景下,银行股的高股息率尤其引人瞩目。银行股股息率中位数为4.75%,远远高于1年期存款利率,最高的南京银行股息率达7.94%,江苏银行、厦门银行、沪农商行、上海银行股息率也超过7%。

  高股息的银行股吸引了险资的高度关注。今年以来,农业银行、邮储银行、招商银行、中信银行、杭州银行等多家上市银行被险资举牌。

  银河证券表示,政府债继续发力支撑社融,降准降息预期增强,低利率环境延续,叠加全球政治经济环境不确定性,资金避险属性提升,银行股息率性价比凸显。市值管理深化,中长期资金力量壮大,推动银行红利价值兑现。大行增资开启,基本面积极因素累积,利好银行信贷投放和风险缓释。

  地产股自4月16日国家统计局发布向好数据后频频走强,板块指数连续创出阶段性新高。天保基建收获3连涨停,渝开发亦2连板,金融街、三湘印象、黑牡丹(维权)、新华联(维权)也以涨停的强势姿态收复4月7日的向下跳空缺口。

  数据显示,2025年1月—3月全国新建商品房销售面积同比降幅较2024年全年收窄9.9个百分点,销售额同比降幅收窄15个百分点,房企到位资金中,国内贷款及个人按揭贷款同比降幅均显著收窄。

  华泰证券指出,2025年房企开发业务利润率仍处底部区间,但行业集中度加速提升,头部房企凭借“好信用、好城市、好产品”策略展现韧性。

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