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  随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的贸易战导致美国资产遭抛售,并提振避险需求,投机交易员对日元的看涨程度达到了纪录最高水平。

  据商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)截至4月15日的数据,资产管理公司和杠杆基金的日元净多头头寸攀升至纪录高位。与此同时,美元空头头寸进一步增加。

  日元兑美元周一上涨1%,触及9月以来最强水平,据报道日本和美国财政部长本周将举行会议。卖美元的交易正在加剧,特朗普公开批评美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔,并考虑是否可以解雇他。

  围绕全球贸易战的不确定性提振避险资产,日元兑美元已连续三周上涨。瑞穗证券最近在报告中表示,将年末美元兑日元预期下调至133。野村证券也下调美元兑日元年底预测,目前预测年底触及137.50。

  “买入日元的风险被认为很低,那么就会很自然地认为卖出日元和买入美元是有风险的,”MarketRiskAdvisory驻东京的研究员KojiFukaya在报告中写道,“在如此不确定和动荡的环境中,利差的重要性下降,日本正在容忍强势日元,而美国则希望美元走弱、日元走强。”

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