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据联合早报的报道,在特朗普政府对华施压的最新举措中,全球航运业成为最新“战场”。作为全球近九成制成品的运输主力,集装箱船正面临一项潜在政策的冲击:美国总统特朗普拟对中国运营或中国建造的船只,每次靠泊美国港口征收至少100万美元费用,以推动美国造船业复兴。

彭博社报道,挪威海空运费率分析平台Xeneta首席分析师桑德(PeterSand)表示,考虑到当前船队和订单中中国船舶所占比重,这项政策一旦实施,将迅速推高全球航运公司的运营成本,除非它们采取极端规避措施。

他补充说:“我们预计这一政策会被落实,可能会有些微调,但费用总归会到来……航运公司不得不对其航线网络进行大规模调整,而这本身也将带来高昂代价。”

中国运营商的处境尤为不利,因为其船队几乎全部由本国船厂建造。然而,即使是世界两大航运巨头——地中海航运公司(MSC)与马士基航运公司(Maersk)也难以置身事外。

航运数据提供商Alphaliner的数据显示,这两家公司的在役船队中,约四分之一是在中国建造的,而其在建订单中,对中国船厂的依赖则更为显著。MSC有超过90%的新船订单交由中方承建,马士基这一比例也超过七成。由此推算,两家公司面临的“入港税”将随对中依赖程度上升而水涨船高。

桑德估算,中国远洋海运集团每次美国靠港的征费可能高达310万美元,因其现有船队和所有新造船舶均产自中国。而MSC与马士基的预估费用则略低于100万美元。

英国海运研究机构克拉克森斯研究(ClarksonsResearch)则测算,若计划全面实施,美国财政部门或将因此新增约400亿至520亿美元收入。

尽管政策前景尚不明朗,航运公司并未停止在中国下单。

Alphaliner航运分析师勒奥斯蒂克(MaelPape-Leostic)说,各大船公司仍持续向中国船厂下单。“例如,MSC、达飞(CMACGM)与长荣(Evergreen)分别在今年2月和3月在中国订购‘巨无霸’级船舶。”

为减少潜在损失,多家航运公司已着手调整船舶部署,将中国产船只逐步撤出美国航线。

桑德指出,减少对美靠港次数虽可缓解部分税负,却可能加剧港口拥堵,推高运费。此外,由马士基与赫伯罗特(Hapag-Lloyd)组成的Gemini新联盟,因其在港口停靠策略上不同于MSC,或将具备一定优势。

“从规章本身来看,这三家公司都会受到影响……但MSC停靠港口数量更多,最终承担的成本也会更高。”

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