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穿书自救指南第六集,解密畅销背后的成功秘诀与市场趋势分析

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专题:2025基金一季报:最新持仓曝光!

  2025年一季度收官,百亿规模以上的权益类基金业绩呈现显著分化,基金经理的调仓能力与行业配置策略经受考验。

  作为目前在管规模最大的权益类基金经理,张坤的调仓策略和业绩表现一直备受市场关注。目前,张坤管理的基金资产总规模约为608.22亿元,较2024年末的589.41亿元增长了18.81亿元。在管基金数4只,分别为易方达亚洲精选、易方达蓝筹精选、易方达优质企业三年持有、易方达优质精选。

  目前管理规模前20大权益基金经理 数据来源:wind截止至20250422

  从业绩表现来看,易方达优质企业三年持有期组合短期表现亮眼,近三月收益9.28%,同类排名前3%。易方达蓝筹精选组合近三月收益8.12%,排名前4%,但长期业绩表现疲软,近两年收益跌13.03%;易方达亚洲精选股票受海外市场波动影响显著,近三月跌7.52%,近一年微涨4.68%,波动较大。易方达优质精选组合(QDII)近两年收益-11.93%,今年来仅涨3.45%。

  数据来源:天天基金截止至20250422

  从持仓策略来看,易方达蓝筹精选作为张坤的代表作基金,一季度主要对消费和科技等行业的持仓结构进行了调整,股票仓位基本保持稳定。该基金的前十大重仓股分别为腾讯控股、阿里巴巴-W、贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖、中国海洋石油、百胜中国、洋河股份、美团-W。

  在持仓调整方面,张坤对长期持有的白酒企业进行了再平衡操作。他减持了在一季度亏损8%的洋河股份,同时增持了山西汾酒。另一方面,张坤大幅减持了在2024年四季度几乎顶格配置的港股互联网股,分别减持了腾讯216.5万股和阿里巴巴2376.5万股。

  数据来源:Wind截止至20250331

  “地产下行对经济的影响正在逐步进入尾声,一系列提振消费的政策也有托底作用,在这种情况下,投资者与其纠结于经济,不如把着眼点放在企业上。”张坤强调。

  他指出,股票的收益率是由企业的收益率决定的,从长期来看,应该大致相当于企业的ROE水平。过去几年出现的股票收益率连续低于企业ROE水平的现象,他认为不会长期持续下去。

  此外,易方达亚洲精选的调仓策略也值得关注。从地区配置来看,该基金的港股占基金资产净值比为46.48%,韩国占比12.43%,均较2024年底略有减少;美股占比则小幅上升至34.07%。

  数据来源:Wind截止至20250331

  从持仓来看,张坤大幅减持了腾讯、阿里、中海油、SK海力士、华住集团、三星电子。此外,张坤所管理的易方达亚洲精选在一季报中的一大关注点是对台积电的操作:减持了其美股仓位,同时增加了少许在中国台湾本土上市的台积电股票。

  数据来源:天天基金截止至20250331

  再看易方达优质精选,前十大重仓股为阿里巴巴-W、腾讯控股、贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖、携程集团-S、洋河股份、普拉达、顺丰控股。与去年四季度相比,新进顺丰控股,分众传媒退出前十大重仓;减持五粮液、洋河股份、普拉达,增持阿里巴巴-W、腾讯控股、贵州茅台、泸州老窖、山西汾酒、携程集团-S。

  “我们看到部分行业的竞争格局正在改善,企业家的预期也更加理性,企业的经营质量不断改善,利润率、周转率、自由现金流等指标不断变好,部分企业家的资本配置能力也有所提升,能够更加审慎地评估投资新业务和帮股东加码老业务之间的优劣,回报股东的决心也不断增强。”张坤表示。

  张坤指出,将专注于寻找具备优秀商业模式、竞争力和定价能力突出、行业空间广阔且资本分配对股东友好的公司。无论何时,我们持有的公司都在不断创造自由现金流,这些不断积累的自由现金流将积累到企业的内在价值上,而企业内在价值的不断提升最终将会投射为企业长期的市值增长。

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