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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82
沧月镜系列在线阅读:被同桌和同学带到没人的地方,发生了一段秘密
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沧月镜系列在线阅读:被同桌和同学带到没人的地方,发生了一段秘密

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  来源:慧保天下

  随着上市险企年报悉数披露,2024年人身险公司整体“成绩单”已然揭晓。其中,上市险企净利润普遍呈现两位数,甚至三位数的强劲增长,引发市场一片叫好。最直观的解读是,业绩红火,得益于“924行情”之后资本市场回暖,投资收益率大幅提升,“保险业想要赚钱,还得靠投资”似乎也成了一个不争的事实。

  然而,在这场利润狂欢背后,报表内里的真实构成究竟如何?

  “慧保天下”对中国人寿寿险、平安寿险及健康险、太保人寿及健康险、新华保险、人保寿险、太平人寿、阳光人寿7家上市人身险公司2024年的利源结构进行了拆解,从保险服务利润、投资利润和其他利润三个维度深入分析。

  数据显示,2024年,这7家公司合计实现投资利润1606.44亿元,同比增长175.43%,平均投资利润贡献率高达46%,日均净赚超4.4亿元;同期实现保险服务利润2007.51亿元,同比减少6.15%。

  值得注意的是,当前上市险企基本已经全部应用新会计准则(IFRS19)、新保险合同准则(IFRS17),财务报表相较以往已经发生巨大变化,其中,新保险合同准则要求所有保险合同都要区分保险服务和投资(储蓄)成份,这使得财务报表的理解门槛大幅提升,很多保险公司高管都高呼“看不懂”。为便于理解,本文中只将人身险公司利润来源大致分为“保险服务业绩”“投资业绩”以及“其他”三类。想要了解详细情况,还请参考各上市险企年报。

  投资立大功

  7家上市人身险公司投资日赚4.4亿元,平均投资利润贡献率达46.07%

  2024年,7家上市险企无一例外实现归母净利润的大幅增长,其中中国平安和中国人寿更是大赚千亿元,领跑行业。

  年报数据显示,中国平安、中国人寿、中国太保、中国人保、新华保险、中国太平、阳光保险分别录得归母净利润1266.07亿元、1069.35亿元、449.60亿元、428.69亿元、262.29亿元、84.32亿港元、54.5亿元,同比增长47.8%、108.9%、64.9%、88.2%、201.1%、36.2%、45.8%。前五大A股上市险企合计实现归母净利润3476亿元,同比增长77.7%。

  聚焦人身险板块,据“慧保天下”统计,中国人寿寿险以1069.35亿元的归母净利润稳居第一,紧随其后的是平安寿险及健康险,其归母净利润为930.25亿元。第二梯队为太保人寿及健康险(361.29亿元)、新华保险(262.29亿元)与人保寿险(170.98亿元)。此外,太平人寿实现经营利润105.04亿元,阳光人寿净利润为57.13亿元。

  上市人身险公司利润的显著增长,得益于投资端的给力。数据显示,2024年7家公司合计实现投资利润1606.44亿元,同比增长175.43%,日均净赚超4.4亿元。

  具体而言,中国人寿寿险投资利润高达962.22亿元,遥遥领先。太保人寿及健康险、新华保险、平安寿险及健康险投资利润分别为185.97亿元、162.32亿元、144.03亿元。阳光人寿、人保寿险、太平人寿投资业绩分别为67.27亿元、63.05亿元、22.86亿港元。

  利润贡献率层面,2024年各上市人身险公司资产端贡献突出,平均投资利润贡献率达46.07%。中国人寿寿险、阳光人寿、新华保险、太保人寿及健康险投资端贡献率超40%,分别为82.36%、81.49%、54.58%、44.47%;平安寿险及健康险、人保寿险、太平人寿则较低,分别为15.13%、32.99%、12.06%。

  从投资利润贡献度变动来看,中国人寿寿险、新华保险、平安寿险及健康险、太保人寿及健康险较去年均显著提升,新华保险资产端贡献率增幅达47.46%。相比之下,人保寿险、太平人寿和阳光人寿则出现下降,变动幅度分别为-168.77%、-12.22%、-17.96%。其中,人保寿险降幅较大,主要受去年利润基数偏低、今年利润快速增长的影响。

  不过值得注意的是,2024年,上述险企投资利润的上涨,一方面,得益于资本市场的回暖,另一方面也与会计准则的切换有关。新会计准则实施后,金融资产公允价值波动直接计入当期损益,放大了权益市场表现对利润表的影响。

  保险服务承压

  保险服务业绩同比下降6.15%,保险服务利润贡献率回落明显

  2024年,7家上市人身险公司在投资端整体表现亮眼之外,保险服务业绩则呈现明显分化。虽然负债端整体实现了较高利润贡献,但部分公司保险服务业绩压力犹存,保险服务利润下滑显著,拖累了整体利润结构的均衡性。

  保险服务收入主要包括保险期间内确认的预计当期发生的保险服务费用、合同服务边际摊销、非金融风险调整变动、保险获取现金流量摊销、保费分配法分摊等。

  保险服务费用主要包括当期发生的赔款及相关费用、保险获取现金流量摊销、亏损部分的确认及转回等。

  据“慧保天下”统计,2024年7家上市人身险公司合计实现保险服务业绩2007.51亿元,同比下降6.15%。尽管整体略有回落,但老牌险企凭借业务基本盘的稳健,在利润结构中依然展现出不俗的承保贡献:中国人寿寿险、平安寿险及健康险、太保人寿及健康险、新华保险、人保寿险、太平人寿、阳光人寿的保险服务利润贡献率分别为23.64%、93.15%、71.49%、54.59%、77.98%、103.75%、58.64%,整体平均贡献率达到69%。

  具体而言,平安寿险及健康险以886.74亿元的保险服务业绩稳居首位,保险服务利润贡献率达到93.15%,对整体利润形成有力支撑。太保人寿及健康险则以298.96亿元的保险服务业绩位居第二,利润率高达71.49%,在去年高基数的基础上继续保持稳健态势。

  太平人寿亦表现亮眼,2024年实现196.83亿港元的保险服务业绩,同比增长18.44%,保险服务利润率高达103.75%,反映出其承保业务的强劲盈利能力。人保寿险也录得显著增长,保险服务利润由13.45亿元跃升至149.01亿元,贡献率达到77.98%,实现明显反转。

  相较之下,中国人寿寿险保险服务压力加剧。尽管其实现276.17亿元的保险服务利润,但在承保费用升至1805.41亿元的背景下,该项利润同比下降55.52%,贡献率仅为23.64%,较去年大幅下降35.13个百分点。新华保险与阳光人寿则相对平稳,新华保险2024年实现162.37亿元保险服务利润,贡献率为54.59%;阳光人寿亦保持稳定盈利,保险服务业绩为48.41亿元,贡献率58.64%。

  从保险服务利润贡献率的变动幅度来看,太保人寿及健康险、太平人寿、阳光人寿构成了保险服务的“稳健阵营”,较去年均实现正向改善;而中国人寿寿险、平安寿险及健康险、新华保险、人保寿险则出现不同程度的回落,贡献率变动幅度分别为-35.13%、-35.68%、-52.13%、-517.15%。其中人保寿险降幅最为显著,与其去年利润基数偏低、今年利润快速增长相关。

  短期红利难掩长期焦虑

  行业保费出现负增长、遭遇“开门黑”,部分上市险企未来利润的释放能力或将减弱

  2024年,在资本市场短暂回暖、投资收益大幅拉升的背景下,上市人身险公司迎来了一轮“大丰收”。然而,通过简单的利源分析,不难发现,在投资端“大赚”的另一面,却是保险服务业绩的普遍承压,甚至公司整体经营层面也面临重重挑战。

  短期来看,投资收益驱动的利润增长为上市险企财报增色不少,但这难掩未来利润增长压力加大的事实。部分上市险企中,作为利润“蓄水池”的合同服务边际(CSM)已显露疲态。截至2024年末,中国人寿的保险合同CSM为7424.88亿元,同比下降3.5%。平安寿险及健康险的合同服务边际余额为7313.12亿元,亦同比下降4.78%。CSM的下行,也意味着未来利润的释放能力或将减弱。

  步入2025年,人身险保费收入的增长态势不容乐观,上市险企也未能置身事外。尽管个别险企如中国太保、新华保险在一季度表现出一定韧性,分别同比增长5.9%、28%,但行业整体仍处于负增长区间。2025年前两个月,人身险公司原保险保费为1.2万亿元,同比下降2.6%。同时,中国人保、人寿和平安等公司已不再披露月度保费数据,使得外界对其增长状况更添一分猜测。

  更令人警觉的是行业一反常态的“开门黑”,新单业务出现近年来罕见的两位数负增长。交流数据显示,2025年前两个月,个险渠道累计新单标保不足400亿元,同比下滑约14%;银保渠道下滑幅度接近25%;而经代渠道跌幅更为剧烈,接近八成。新单三大主力渠道全面承压,其背后既有市场透支、产品转型的阶段性阵痛,也有“报行合一”等监管政策带来的调整冲击。

  本质上,人身险公司利润来源的特殊性决定了其在资产配置过程中必须对长期负债的匹配问题保持高度敏感。2024年投资拉动下的利润“井喷”固然可喜,但若未来资本市场剧烈波动,其负面效应同样可能被放大。

  这也可以从上市险企经济假设的调整中窥见一斑。在2024年年报中,中国平安、中国人寿、新华保险、中国太保、中国人保和阳光保险均将长期投资回报率假设由4.5%下调至4.0%,并对风险贴现率进行了不同程度的下调。这一系列动作无疑释放出险企对未来市场回报预期的审慎态度,也凸显出行业对“短期红利难掩长期焦虑”的现实认知。

  欣喜之余,更需理性应对。在转型期的当下,行业更需要的,或许不是庆祝短期业绩的回暖,而是如何穿越周期,稳住基本盘,走出一条可持续的增长路径。

  <END>

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