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  财联社4月22日讯(编辑潇湘)“美元是我们的货币,却是你们的麻烦”——这句逾半个世纪前美国前财政部长康纳利“飞扬跋扈”的言辞,在过去数十年来不断被验证。

  而如今,围绕美元汇率的麻烦似乎依然存在:

  除了特朗普团队的内部人士外,对于这个问题的答案,目前可能没有任何人能给出一个令人信服的答案。但是有一点确实是明确的,特朗普本身还是希望能看到美元贬值,以利好美国制造商的。而至于眼下美元遭遇抛售的原因和过程——美国“股债汇三杀”开始严重动摇人们对美元的信心,甚至伤及美元储备货币的根基,是否为特朗普团队所乐见,就显然要打上一个大大的问号。

  事实上,特朗普在汇率政策上的立场,其实一直是“既要,又要”——既想要美元贬值下的好处(利好出口和国内制造业),又想要维护美元在全球的主导地位(这需要美元币值稳定乃至升值来保驾护航)。

  但众所周知,世事往往难以两全!

  过去几周,美元的暴跌包括美债基差交易的一度爆雷,其实是令诸多市场观察者始料未及。传统经济学理论认为,当经济体遭遇关税冲击时,非美货币往往倾向于走软,从而有助于降低商品出口价格,以抵消关税成本。

  但当前的现实情况却是,投资者对特朗普反复无常的贸易政策做出了抛售美元资产的反应,逆转了近年基于“美国例外论”预期建立的巨额多头头寸。随着投资者大举抛售美元资产,他们将资金换回本国货币,从而推高了非美货币的价值。

  美元持续的贬值甚至已引发了市场对美国经济受贸易政策转向冲击程度的担忧,并开始质疑美元的避险货币地位是否稳固。

  无论如何,如果特朗普只是一味追求美元贬值,而无视美国金融霸主地位开始动摇的一系列不安信号,他最终很可能只会“捡了芝麻丢了西瓜”……

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