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五行天sodu|深度解析时事热点与社会趋势
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  来源:财经新一线

  2025年,国际金价一路高歌猛进,4月21日,伦敦现货黄金、COMEX黄金期货触及3400美元关口,与此同时,国内金价同步上涨,沪金期货主力合约等首度涨破800元/克。

  “高烧”的金价带动以此为基准的银行积存金不断上调购买“门槛”,年初至今已有多家银行陆续采取行动,调整后,积存金起购金额普遍涨至750—800元之间,亦有银行达到1000元。分析人士预计,后续金价仍将震荡上行,积存金起购金额仍有上调可能,建议投资者可以考虑逢低酌情买入,避免过度追高。

  01

  国际金价涨至3400美元关口

  国际金价继续刷新历史新高,4月21日,伦敦现货黄金、COMEX黄金期货再次创下纪录,截至19:45时,盘中分别最高涨至3404美元/盎司、3409美元/盎司。

  与此同时,国内金价首度站上800元,截至当日收盘,上海黄金交易所现货黄金价格盘中触及800元/克整数关口,报803.98元/克,创历史新高。同日,沪金期货主力合约同步突破800元/克,报805.06元/克,日内涨幅达2.5%。

  特朗普政府发起的关税战支撑了避险资产需求,成为此轮金价上涨重要的推动因素。中国(香港)金融衍生品投资研究院院长王红英表示,近期受美国关税政策的持续扰动,促使全球贸易关系较为紧张,在这种不确定性增加的情况下,投资者往往会寻求避险资产以保护自己的资金不受市场波动的影响,而黄金作为传统的避险资产,在这样的背景下吸引了更多的投资流入,与此同时,美元指数跌破99关口关键支持位,也促使金价不断上升。

  事实上,自2025年开年以来,国际金价便延续了去年的强势表现,2月初已站上2900美元关口,随后进入震荡调整期,一度失守2900美元。经过前期的震荡拉锯后,3月14日,国际金价突破3000美元大关阻力位,保持高增长态势。

  行至4月,受美国“对等关税”政策扰动影响,贸易冲突风险上升,国际金价大幅波动,经过连续几个交易日的下跌,伦敦现货黄金、COMEX黄金期货一度失守3000美元大关,调整后,国际金价又迎来一轮上涨行情,4月16日,突破3300美元关口,并在4月21日朝3400美元关口迈进。

  Wind数据显示,截至4月21日,伦敦现货黄金、COMEX黄金期货累计涨幅均突破29%,已超过2024年全年27%的涨幅。

  02

  已有积存金起购“门槛”涨至千元

  国际金价一路“狂飙”,交易所多次发布相关风险警示。就在4月21日,上海黄金交易所发布《关于继续做好近期市场风险控制工作的通知》指出,近期贵金属价格波动剧烈。请各会员提高风险防范意识,继续做好风险应急预案,维护市场平稳运行。同时,提示投资者做好风险防范工作,合理控制仓位,理性投资。

  而在积存金业务方面,开年以来,已有工商银行、中国银行、建设银行、交通银行、招商银行、光大银行、兴业银行、宁波银行、东莞银行、四川天府银行等多家银行上调起购“门槛”,经过一轮或多轮调整,积存金起购金额普遍涨至750—800元之间,已有个别银行飙升至1000元。

  积存金业务是指银行根据客户申请,为客户开立积存金账户,记录客户在一定时期内存入一定重量黄金的负债类业务。客户可采取主动积存或定投的方式从银行买入黄金存入积存金账户,积存的黄金支持卖出或兑换成等值的实物黄金。

  受金价波动影响,兴业银行4月16日起,调整积存金活期及普通定期业务按金额购买方式的购买起点金额,按金额交易时,单次购买、新增定投购买起点由800元起调整为900元起。

  光大银行调整幅度更大,自4月8日9:30起,该行黄金积存个人业务定期投资按固定金额投资起购金额由700元调整为1000元。

  而受宏观经济形势、货币政策调整及地缘政治等因素影响,招商银行年内已三次上调积存金的认购起点金额。4月21日起,该行黄金账户活期及黄金账户定投按金额认购的起点由750元调整为800元,而在2月24日、3月27日,该行分别将黄金账户活期买入起点及黄金账户定投起点由650元调整至700元、由700元提升至750元。

  王红英认为,各家银行积存金业务起存金额有所差异主要是由于各家银行的风控标准及目标客群不同,有的银行可能侧重于长期投资,强调稳定性和安全性;而另一些银行则可能提供更多灵活的投资选项,满足短期或中期投资者的需求。

  03

  建议逢低酌情买入

  目前积存金业务收益由固定年化收益、金价波动收益两部分构成,其中,金价波动收益是主要的收入来源,与金价行情密切相关,会根据市场价格波动情况实行一日多价。

  对于后续国际金价的走势,苏商银行特约研究员武泽伟认为,站在中长期的角度,依然看好黄金中长期走势。一方面,随着特朗普大打贸易战,全球去美元化倾向会不断加速,各国央行和投资者都会增加黄金投资;另一方面,随着美国经济失速风险上升以及通胀数据回落,预计美联储降息幅度将超出预期,实际利率下降支撑黄金价格上涨。

  北京商报记者注意到,高盛近期发布的最新报告已将2025年黄金目标价从此前的3300美元/盎司上调至3700美元/盎司,上调幅度高达12%。

  不过,国际金价波动较大,短期内技术性回调风险也在增加,因此投资积存金也可能面临亏损风险。有投资者自述年内购入积存金却因买卖节奏踏错而亏损的经历,投资者薛潇晓(化名)表示,他在今年2月买入了2万元积存金,期间也曾盈利,但在4月由于卖出时点选择错误,累计亏损350元。

  武泽伟表示,考虑到黄金是一种趋势性的品种,还是建议投资者减少买卖频率,尽可能通过定投的方式摊平投资成本并长期持有。

  王红英也建议,金价波动较大,投资者应根据自身财务状况合理安排资金投入,在购买积存金时应避免过度追高,逢低酌情、酌量购入,此外,应选择风控体系更严格、信用评级更高的银行积存金产品。

  在特朗普总统加大对美联储主席鲍威尔的抨击力度之际,芝加哥联储行长奥斯坦-古尔斯比周一坚决捍卫央行独立性。

  古尔斯比周一对媒体强调:“市场对美联储将通胀率拉回2%目标的长期预期至关重要,而美联储独立性是实现这一目标的关键基础。”

  这位央行官员警告称:“长期干预货币政策将导致更高通胀、更疲弱增长及更严重失业,因为在关键时刻采取艰难决策的意愿会被削弱。”

  尽管拒绝直接评论特朗普言论,其表态明显针对总统近期行动——特朗普上周五再度炮轰鲍威尔拒绝降息,甚至传出可能通过立法手段或安插“影子主席”架空鲍威尔权力的消息。

  “如果我们有个懂行的美联储主席,利率早就该下降了,”特朗普以物价下跌为例声称,“他(鲍威尔)早该降息了。”

  白宫经济顾问哈赛特同日证实,特朗普团队正在评估罢免联储主席的法律可能性。

  但鲍威尔此前明确表示,法律保障其任期至2026年5月,总统无权将其解职。

  古尔斯比援引学界共识指出:“我在联储任职刚逾两年,但早在入职前就深知经济学家一致认为央行独立性至关重要。要理解其价值,只需看看那些没有央行独立性的国家——通胀更高、失业更严重、增长更乏力。”

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