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天狗小说阅读未删减:体验春天的温暖与精彩
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天狗小说阅读未删减:体验春天的温暖与精彩

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无论如何,特朗普都将鲍威尔逼入了骑虎难下的境地,而这把“刀”也无情地架在了美元的脖颈上。破了100关口之后,美元的长期熊市或许已经拉开帷幕。

特朗普真是精力无限,关税刚缓和没几天,又开始炮轰美联储。市场才平静不到一周,昨天亚洲盘开始,又来了新一波的冲击,美元指数跌破98,黄金刷新3400的历史高位!

一、美元为何又突然暴跌?

1.主要原因就是市场对于美联储独立性的担忧。周末特朗普表达出对美联储非常不满,迟迟不降息,扬言要炒鲍威尔鱿鱼,这使得市场质疑美元信用体系,于是抛售美资产(美元、美债、美股期货)、买入黄金、非美货币。

2.假期流动性差,放大了行情走势。周一,澳大利亚、中国香港和欧洲等多地市场还在复活节假期中,主要市场仅日本和美国开市,外汇市场流动性非常稀薄。早上日本市场开盘后,亚洲交易员首先开始做空美元,EURUSD、USDJPY在突破前期1.14和141的阻力位之后,触发了一系列止损,引发了行情的加剧。

昨天晚间,在芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比发声捍卫美联储独立性之后,特朗普再度在TruthSocial上发帖:

二、鲍威尔有那么容易被炒鱿鱼吗?

根据《联邦储备法》:

1.美联储理事由总统提名,经参议院确认后任命,任期为14年。主席、副主席则从理事中选任,任期4年。(鲍威尔第二任期将于2026年5月结束)

2.总统可以“有理由”罢免美联储理事,“有正当理由”指罢免理由需与工作能力或行为有关,如效率低下、玩忽职守或渎职等,政策分歧并不包括在内。

3.罢免美联理事需要国会2/3票数通过。而且,美联储的独立性得到两党及参众两院的广泛支持,国会不会轻易开启罢免。

可见,炒鲍威尔的鱿鱼几乎不可能。特朗普正在使用其谈判的常用手段:“虚张声势-极限施压-舆论压力-制造不确定性”。特朗普知道自己从法律层面很难单方面解雇鲍威尔,用社交平台频繁发表对美联储的批评言论,将高利率政策描绘成阻碍经济发展的因素,通过舆论压力迫使美联储做出降息让步。

三、未来怎么看?

1.如果鲍威尔屈服降息,美联储独立性破坏,那无疑对于美元是灾难性的打击,美元资产将遭全面抛售。

2.如果鲍威尔坚决不降息,美国经济可能会继续恶化,衰退风险增加,美元同样难逃贬值。

无论如何,特朗普都将鲍威尔逼入了骑虎难下的境地,而这把“刀”也无情地架在了美元的脖颈上。破了100关口之后,美元的长期熊市或许已经拉开帷幕。

图:美元指数跌破100支撑后,下一阻力位在90

本文来源:早安汇市,原文标题:《特朗普向美联储开火,美元先崩为敬》

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  出品|远见资本局

  作者|远见君

  在白酒行业深度调整之下,川酒“六朵金花”之一剑南春业绩增速也在不断下行。

  四川剑南春集团近期在微信公众号表示,2024年该公司实现全年工业总产值同比增长15.11%,营收同比增长3.74%。

  作为一家非上市公司,剑南春暂未披露具体营收数据。但根据2023年169.41亿元营收总额来计算,剑南春2024年营收或在175亿元左右,业绩增速较往年有所下滑。

  从2019年至2021年,剑南春实现了一段高速发展的时期,年营收从102.26亿元,攀升至154.23亿元。但2022年后,其业绩增速开始放缓,当年营收为157.5亿元。

  不过,在业绩放缓之际,剑南春提出了一个很具有挑战性的目标。德阳市“十四五”规划中提出,2025年德阳全市白酒产业营业收入达400亿元以上,力争实现500亿元。剑南春销售收入占德阳产区90%以上,据此推算,到2025年,剑南春目标营收应该在360亿左右。

  早在2023年底,剑南春曾提出过在2025年实现350亿销售的目标规划。如今看来,这一目标的实现可能要延后了。

  当下白酒行业深受价格倒挂、库存积压等问题困扰,行业仍处于调整阶段。中国酒业协会发布的《2024中国白酒市场中期研究报告》显示,2024年上半年,800元-1500元价位带的白酒倒挂比例高达32%,500元-800元价位带的白酒倒挂比例为29%,300元-500元价位带的倒挂比例也达到了22%。

  剑南春也不例外,2024年“双十一”前夕,市场上出现不少来源不明的水晶剑南春,在电商平台上打着“假一罚十”“破价”“补贴”等名义疯狂打折促销。为此,剑南春官方还专门写了一则《致剑南春消费者的告知书》。剑南春表示,经检测分析,这些非授权店铺打折促销的产品疑似为回收拼凑销售。

  业内分析认为,出现这种现象的原因可能是由于市场供需失衡,产能过剩与消费不足的矛盾导致经销商为清理库存而低价甩货;此外,电商平台的补贴促销活动进一步拉低了市场价格。

  据悉,52度500ML剑南春水晶剑批发价为410元,然而在某些电商平台上,参与百亿补贴活动的同款产品单价却降至355元。另据海报新闻报道,线下门店售价450元一瓶的52°500ml水晶剑南春,在线上电商平台,能以低至291元的价格买到同等规格,价差远远超过100元,价格倒挂明显。

  水晶剑是剑南春旗下的王牌产品,同时也是300~500元的次高端价格段的明星大单品,在婚宴、谢师宴、升学宴等宴席市场“出席”率非常高。不过,随着头部品牌“茅五泸汾”等头部品牌不断向次高端市场布局,300~500元的次高端价格段成为当下白酒市场竞争最为激烈的“红海”,对剑南春形成不小的压力。

  而剑南春又十分依赖水晶剑。公开信息显示,2018-2021年,水晶剑分别实现销售额约100亿元、超120亿元、130亿元以及150亿元,占总销售收入比重分别为83.33%、80%、86.67%、75%。剑南春的营收结构单品依赖的特征突出,倘若水晶剑竞争力不济,可能会对公司营收造成冲击。

  面对激烈的市场竞争,剑南春选择向高端市场突围。2023年1月,剑南春推出老酒系列,定位为水晶剑的高端延伸产品,并且定价高达818元,意在冲击800元价格带。在2023年的“618”购物节期间,剑南春又推出了一款名为皇家剑南春的高端单品,定价高达1818元,预售价为1618元。不过,在目前白酒市场调整阶段,这一系列高端产品还没有显露出明显的“破局”效益。

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