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特朗普朝令夕改的关税政策,正令许多想要精确计算关税影响的经济学家和市场人士,彻底陷入了抓狂的境地……

白宫一系列密集的关税政策提案、调整和临时豁免,让不少投资者和经济学家们“撕报告”都唯恐不及。当然,迄今为止,这一系列的修订还没有完全改变特朗普贸易政策提案带来的一个既成事实:

美国的关税税率正在回到过去——回到一个久远的过去,远到当时中国甚至还处在清朝时期……

根据业内人士近来的预估,特朗普政府目前对美国所有进口商品征收的有效关税税率,已达到了22%-27%。

这一范围的顶端(27%)将使美国有效关税税率超过1903年的水平。而即便是低端(22%),关税也将达到1910年以来的最高水平。

造成经济学家们计算不断发生改变的一个原因,在于特朗普自上周以来其实已先后作出了两次关税“让步”:

一个是上周三美债市场发生动荡的当天,特朗普宣布对数十个国家实施为期90天的对等关税暂停措施;

另一个则是美国海关和边境保护局上周六发布最新公告,将一系列产品排除在原先公布的对等关税之外,类别包括了通讯设备(智能手机)、计算机、半导体设备、集成电路器件等。

虽然特朗普此后依然“嘴硬”地表示“没有宣布关税‘例外’,它们只是转移到不同的关税‘类别’”,并威胁“半导体关税”很快就会到来,但临时性的豁免确实已经发生——4月5日后这些电子产品支付的相关“对等关税”甚至可以寻求退款。

根据耶鲁大学预算实验室的估算,特朗普对中国征收的关税税率(目前为145%),最初将美国的整体平均有效关税税率推高至了27%,这是自1903年以来的最高水平。

不过,在电子产品临时对等关税豁免决定公布后,这一平均有效关税税率实际上已有所回落。

凯投宏观(CapitalEconomics)首席北美经济学家PaulAshworth在电子产品关税豁免后的一份报告中写道,“结果是,美国进口产品的总体有效关税率目前为22%,与一年前的2.3%相比仍有很大涨幅,但低于了前一天的27%。”

“具体来说,对华加征关税税率虽然仍为145%,但一旦计入这些豁免,平均下来的实际加征幅度现在接近106%”。

我们此前曾介绍过,电子产品受到关税豁免的部分不仅包括了特朗普对中国商品征收的125%对等关税,也包括了对其他国家进口商品征收的10%的基准关税。相关商品暂时依然受到关税影响的,仅仅只是特朗普最早前宣布的对华商品加征20%关税的部分。

根据RandChinaResearchCenter副主任GerardDiPippo汇编的数据,按照美国2024年官方贸易统计数据,此番豁免涵盖了美国进口额的近3900亿美元,其中超过1010亿美元来自中国。DiPippo表示,整体来看,这些豁免包括的消费类电子产品和半导体在2024年占美国从中国进口总额的22%左右。

当然,正如特朗普这两天反复强调的,他将很快宣布对半导体征收关税,因而这些数字接下来依然可能会发生进一步变化。

美国商务部长卢特尼克上周日也表示,智能手机、电脑和其他电子产品虽不受“对等关税”的限制,但会被涵盖在半导体关税中,关税可能会在一两个月后出台。

无论如何,特朗普如同“过家家般”、“想一出是一出”的关税政策变化,只会给金融市场带来巨大的不确定性,并加剧美国经济陷入衰退的风险。

正如花旗银行美国股票策略主管StuartKaiser所指出的那样,对某些电子产品的豁免是“迈向进展的第一步,尽管尚不明确”。就目前而言,“这只是尾部风险的减少或延迟,而不是消除”。

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