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转自:经济参考报

  对冲外部压力、加大逆周期调节力度,国务院常务会议释放出更强政策信号。国务院总理李强4月18日主持召开国务院常务会议,研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措,听取“3·15”晚会曝光问题处置情况汇报,讨论《中华人民共和国社会救助法(草案)》,审议通过《中华人民共和国植物新品种保护条例(修订草案)》。

  会议指出,面对复杂严峻的外部环境,要深入贯彻中央经济工作会议部署,加力落实《政府工作报告》明确的政策措施,锚定经济社会发展目标,加大逆周期调节力度,着力稳就业稳外贸,着力促消费扩内需,着力优结构提质量,做强国内大循环,推动经济高质量发展。要鼓励企业积极稳定就业,加大职业技能培训力度,扩大以工代赈等支持,加强就业公共服务。要稳定外贸外资发展,一业一策、一企一策加大支持力度,支持外资企业境内再投资。要促进养老、生育、文化、旅游等服务消费,扩大有效投资,大力提振民间投资积极性。要持续稳定股市,持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。相关举措一旦推出,要直达企业和群众,提高落地效率,确保实施效果。

  根据国家统计局发布的数据,一季度经济开局良好。一季度GDP同比增长5.4%,增速高于去年全年5%的增速,也高于去年一季度5.3%的增速。不过,“当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻,全球贸易保护主义快速升温,世界经济秩序受到重创,国内结构转型任务仍然比较繁重。所以,持续推动经济回升向好,需要付出更加艰巨的努力。”国家统计局副局长盛来运日前在国新办发布会上表示。

  继续加大宏观政策施策力度已经成为业内共识。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示,“外部经贸环境变数骤然加大,无疑需要国内宏观政策加快对冲步伐,加大力度实施逆周期调节。这是本次国务院常务会议作出重要政策部署的背景。”

  具体来看,此次国务院常务会议明确“加力落实《政府工作报告》明确的政策措施”,具体部署涉及促消费扩内需、稳定外贸外资、稳定股市楼市等多个方面,并且强调要“提高落地效率,确保实施效果”。在业内人士看来,这体现了系统施策和精准施策的特点。

  值得注意的是,在一系列稳经济的举措中,此次国务院会议就稳就业作出重要部署。

  实际上,近段时间以来,央地已经联合打出“组合拳”精准施策,千方百计广开就业门路。“当前,就业形势总体稳定,但就业规模总量压力和结构性矛盾并存,稳就业工作要进一步精准施力,高校、企业、政府要多方协同加强就业公共服务。”中国劳动学会副会长张占武表示。

  “此次国务院常务会议提出的‘加大职业技能培训力度’是破解‘有活没人干’与‘有人没活干’结构性矛盾的关键措施。”首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院副教授、中国新就业形态研究中心主任张成刚表示,职业技能培训能够帮助劳动者掌握市场急需的专业技能,提高其就业竞争力与适应性,使其能够胜任“有活没人干”的岗位需求,支持劳动者技能就业、技能增收。

  此外,此次会议特别提出“扩大以工代赈等支持”。在张成刚看来,以工代赈是从用工需求侧出发扩大就业。“以工代赈一方面改善了农村、欠发达地区等的基础条件,另一方面在提供收入保障的同时,维护劳动者尊严,促进其积极融入社会生产。”张成刚说。

  一系列部署中,促消费扩内需仍是重中之重。展望未来,王青表示,除了加快推进超长期特别国债3000亿元支持消费品以旧换新外,不排除各地进一步加大促消费支持范围,将更多普通消费品和服务消费纳入进来的可能,以有效应对可能出现的“出口转内销”需求。

  野村中国首席经济学家陆挺认为,相关部门可考虑耐用品消费之外的消费刺激政策,对服务消费的刺激具备一定潜力。

  此次会议也明确提出“要持续稳定股市,持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展”。

  实际上,外部经贸环境急剧变化的背景下,今年稳楼市的迫切性显著上升。上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进表示,“持续推动”这个词,意味着二季度政策还要加力,助推房地产在现有市场基础上进一步向好发展。

  陆挺认为,目前,部分一线城市、热点城市的房地产市场止跌回稳态势显现,但是还难言全国范围内市场的企稳复苏。陆挺说,可以进一步加快保交房和土地收储的政策进度。

  广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉建议,下一步,一方面要在土地规划报建配套等方面给予更多优惠政策,鼓励开发商提供品质又好、价格又适宜的好房子,让好房子覆盖更多人群。另一方面要加快促进二手房以旧换新,形成租赁和二手房之间的新市民由租转买、二手房和新房好房子之间的刚需和改善的循环。

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