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叶非晚与封卿,探索的创新点及其对行业的影响
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未来保险公司保费投资权益类资产比例有望逐步提高,如果险资真要大规模增持股票,红利股应该是首选。

成一虫/文

4月8日,国家金融监督管理总局发布《关于调整保险资金权益类资产监管比例有关事项的通知》(下称“《通知》”),优化保险资金比例监管政策,加大对资本市场和实体经济的支持力度。《通知》简化档位标准,将部分档位偿付能力充足率对应的权益类资产比例上调5%。上季末综合偿付能力充足率100%-150%的,权益类资产账面余额不得高于本公司上季末总资产的20%;偿付能力充足率150%-250%的,权益类资产不得高于30%;偿付能力充足率250%-350%的,权益类资产不得高于40%。

按照A股五大保险公司中国人寿、中国平安、中国太保、中国人保、新华保险2024年底综合偿付能力充足率来测算,它们的权益类资产(包括股票、股权两大项投资)可以占到总资产的30%-40%以下。

笔者最近看保险股的年报,最大的感受就是其股票仓位太轻,主要的资产管理仓位都在债券、存款类资产,而受市场利率不断走低影响,长期保险产品(比如部分寿险、健康险等)的预定利率(2.5%),加上税费、销售费及行政管理成本等可能高达3.5%-4%左右。债券收益可能无法覆盖保单总成本。

短期内,由于市场利率走低,2024年债券二级市场价格大涨,债券牛市会让保险公司的年度投资收益率很好看,但这只是短线利好,保险公司的长期存量保单如果没有在当年就配置齐全足够久期的债券,现在就会碰到息差的麻烦。要解决这个麻烦,最好的办法就是增加股票、股权投资的比重。

先看中国平安,2024年综合投资收益率5.8%,同比上升2.2个百分点;寿险及健康险业务综合投资收益率6%,同比上升2.4个百分点;近10年平均净投资收益率5%;近10年平均综合投资收益率5.1%。考虑到市场利率走低,中国平安于2024年审慎下调寿险及健康险业务内含价值长期投资回报率假设至4%、风险贴现率至8.5%/7.5%。

截至2024年末,中国平安保险资金投资组合规模超5.73万亿元,较年初增长21.4%。其中,投资债权产品大约从上一年的近72%(债券及债券基金约60%出头)变成2024年的75%(债券及债券基金约63.5%),股票及权益基金由上一年的9.3%变成2024年的9.9%,非上市公司股权及长期股权投资从上年的6.6%变成5.6%。股票加股权的权益投资合计大约只占15.5%,距离30%的监管限制还差一倍。

展望未来,如果股票是年化8%收益率(因为上市公司的平均净资产收益率大致在7%-8%左右),乘以目前10%的投资占比(股票仓位)就是0.8%;债券假设是2.2%收益率,乘以60%仓位,就是1.32%;股权投资假设是10%收益率,乘以6%仓位是0.6%;余下投资占比24%(包括现金、存款、投资性物业、其他债权产品等),假设是4%出头的收益率,二者相乘得到1%,合计是3.72%。低于4%的内含价值假设收益率。

再看中国人寿。2024年投资收益率是5.5%,内含价值假设收益率也是4%。至2024年末,中国人寿投资资产达6.61万亿元,其中债券配置比例为59.04%,定期存款配置比例为6.63%,债权型金融产品配置比例为7.92%,股票和基金(不包含货币市场基金)配置比例为12.18%。这里的基金可能包括债券基金、混合基金,不全是权益基金。它直接持有股票7.58%,基金4.64%,所以我估计股票投资比例应该是9%-12%左右,跟中国平安相当,两家的债券比重也相近。所以,它的问题跟平安一样:未来如果利率走低,收益率低于4%怎么办?

中国人保2024年投资收益率5.6%。截至2024年底投资资产1.64万亿元,其中债券投资占比48.9%,定存7.7%,其他固定收益投资11.3%,合计是67.9%。股票3.7%,基金5.3%(注意:不是权益基金,是所有基金)。所以,我估计人保的股票投资占比可能只有6%-8%左右,更低。

中国太保2024年投资收益率5.6%。截至2024年底投资资产2.73万亿元,其中债券及债券基金投资占比60.5%,其他固定收益投资15.4%,合计是75.9%。定存6.4%。股票9.3%,权益基金是1.9%,合计是11.2%,比平安、人保高,也可能高于人寿。

新华保险2024年总投资收益率为5.8%。截至2024年底投资资产1.63万亿元,其中债券及债务投资占比52.1%,定存17.3%,股票(包括优先股)11.1%,基金(包括债券基金、股票基金等)是7.7%,长期股权投资是1.9%、股权计划。新华保险的股票投资比较多,股票占比在2024年增加了3.2个百分点。

金融监管总局年初称,鼓励保险资金稳步提升投资股市的比例,特别是大型国有保险公司要发挥头雁作用,力争每年新增保费30%用于投资股市。这5家险企合计17多万亿元投资资产,目前股票占比约10%左右。截至2024年底,国内保险资金运用余额超过33万亿元,投资股票和权益类基金的金额超过4.4万亿元,占比约为13%。如果未来权益投资比重慢慢提高到30%,再假设其中三分之二投向股票,就是新增近4万亿元入市。

如果险资真要大规模增持股票,买银行、水电、移动电信、高速公路、能源等红利股应该是首选。从这个角度来看,绩优红利股,尤其是大盘央企蓝筹股的下跌空间有限。个人觉得险资股票投资应该逐年提高,利国利民,也有利于企业自身,否则长期保单可能出现息差亏损。

(作者系资深投资人士。文中个股仅为举例分析,不作买卖推荐。)

本文刊于04月12日出版的《证券市场周刊》

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