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一本久久道本道久久爱:值得我们深入思考与借鉴。
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一本久久道本道久久爱:值得我们深入思考与借鉴。

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  美股股指期货周二盘前小幅下挫,美国国债在经历上周的历史性抛售后有所持稳,不过美元正迈向连续第六日下跌。

  截至发稿,道指期货跌0.24%,标普500指数期货跌0.22%,纳指期货跌0.17%。

  德国DAX指数涨1.06%,英国富时100指数涨0.74%,法国CAC40指数涨0.00%,欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.50%。

  随着美国总统特朗普表示可能暂停征收汽车关裞,市场情绪得到缓解,欧洲和亚洲股市普遍上涨。

  特朗普周一表示,正在考虑对来自墨西哥、加拿大及其他地区的汽车和零部件进口关裞进行修改。

  BRI财富管理公司CEO兼CIODanBoardman-Weston表示:“市场一直在渴望任何积极信号。上周末关于电子产品和手机的消息对市场情绪非常有利,因此近几日我们看到市场有所反弹。”

  汇丰全球私人银行和财富瑞士和欧洲、中东和非洲首席投资官GeorgiosLeontaris表示:“市场基调积极,因为市场正在消化汽车关裞的暂时削减,而且电子行业仍在对减税做出反应,即使这是暂时的。”

  在债市方面,10年期美债收益率变化不大,延续了上周暴跌后的稳定走势。美元指数因波音事件消息而下跌,录得连续第六日下跌,创下逾一年来最长跌势。

  市场目前正出现整固迹象,因特朗普豁免部分关裞带来谈判希望,而此前的报复性关裞已使全球股市蒸发10万亿美元市值,并引发美债大跌。反复无常的政策令投资者保持警惕,包括摩根大通CEO戴蒙在内的商业领袖纷纷警告称,特朗普重塑全球贸易体系的做法可能令美国陷入衰退。

  T&D资产管理资深交易员YusukeSakai表示:“特朗普在关裞政策上表现出灵活性,为市场带来了一定的稳定感。”

  西太平洋银行经济学家IllianaJain表示:“当某些行业开始出现关裞豁免时,市场会开始认为这些关裞可能不会是全面性的,甚至可能会有进一步的减免。

  不过,分析师普遍保持谨慎,因特朗普在关裞问题上的反复立场仍令市场和全球经济前景蒙上阴影。最新进展是:美国商务部正在推进针对半导体和医药产品进口的新贸易调查,计划对相关产品加征关裞,可能进一步扩大这场贸易战的影响范围。

  本周投资者仍将迎来大量财报,包括美国银行和花旗集团等大型银行。半导体制造商台积电的财报也备受关注。

  德意志银行全球首席投资官ChristianNolting表示,如果标普500指数跌破5000点,将是买入机会。他透露,该行在关裞宣布前“略微减持”美股,但也劝客户不要因市场波动而恐慌。

  Nolting表示:“如果市场回落至接近衰退水平,我们会选择逢低买入。美国依然存在一定的增长潜力,这对投资者仍具吸引力。”

  三菱日联银行的DerekHalpenny表示:“尽管我们看到特朗普的贸易政策出现一些让步,但未来几周和几个月里,关裞压力仍不太可能减轻。金融市场的下一个危险阶段将是从数据中确认贸易战对实体经济造成的伤害。”

  市场目前预期今年年底前将降息约83个基点,大多数人预计联储下月将维持利率不变。

  美元周二持稳,兑欧元接近三年低点,兑日元接近六个月低点,因投资者仍对美国资产持谨慎态度。

  法国兴业银行亚太区策略主管巴拉特·萨查南达尼表示:“美元近期的行为方式发生了变化——它不再主要受利率差影响,而是更多地受资本流动驱动。美元目前不喜欢企业利润下降、消费者面临高通胀,以及外国投资者对美资资产兴趣减弱的前景。”

  德国商业银行策略师AntjePraefcke在一份报告中写道:“随着他的‘交易’的每一次转变,美国总统破坏了进一步的计划安全,甚至更多的信任,这就是为什么只要这种不确定性持续存在,我最终预计美元不会出现任何重大复苏。”

  大宗商品方面,油价上涨,投资者密切关注贸易战最新进展以及伊朗原油出口限止可能放宽的前景。黄金价格也上涨,交投在接近历史高位水平,因避险需求持续升温。

  旧金山联储发出警告:多项指标预示经济衰退即将到来!

  旧金山联储发布的研究报告显示,近年来美国失业率虽呈缓慢且相对温和的上升态势,但几项较少被关注的劳动力市场指标正发出经济衰退风险的预警信号。

  旧金山联储最新一期《经济通讯》的作者发现,在过往多次经济衰退来临前,失业人群普遍呈现出求职周期持续拉长、滞留在失业大军中的时间逐渐增加的特征。“历史上,此类模式往往出现在经济衰退初期,暗示当前这些变化可能是衰退风险抬头的信号”。

  报告指出,衡量失业人群每月成功就业比例的指标自2023年中期以来持续下滑,这一趋势与历次经济衰退前的轨迹高度相似。

  与此同时,失业者中位待业时间从2022年中的约8周拉长至目前的逾10周,已逼近2007-2009年金融危机期间10周的峰值水平。

  美银调查:基金经理对经济前景为30年来最悲观,美股或遭更多抛售。

  美国银行的一项调查显示,基金经理对经济前景的看法是30年来最悲观的,但这种悲观情绪并未完全反映在他们的资产配置上,这可能意味着美股将面临更多抛售。

  在美国银行的月度调查中,82%的受访基金经理预计全球经济将走弱。与此同时,调查显示,计划减少对美股敞口的基金经理人数达到创纪录水平。

  以MichaelHartnett为首的美银策略师在一份报告中表示:“基金经理在宏观层面上极度悲观,但对市场本身还未达到最悲观的程度。”

  他们补充称,目前现金配置比例为资产总额的4.8%,而“恐慌峰值”通常需要这一比例升至6%。美国贸易政策高度不确定以及金融市场波动激增,使得股票投资者情绪不安。在4月份的调查中,基金经理对美股的净持仓为减持36%,相比之下,2月份为增持17%,这是有史以来两个月内最大幅度的转变。

  焦点个股

  波音盘前跳水一度跌超4%,首席执行官警告可能因关裞导致波音飞机交付延迟。

  奈飞盘前涨超2.3%目标2030年实现1万亿美元的市值。

  阿斯麦盘前涨2.3%将于明日发布财报。

  爱立信盘前涨近8%Q1经调整EBIT超预期。

  道达尔盘前涨1.5%预计Q1炼油利润率将上升。

  BOSS直聘盘前涨超6%获高盛看好。

  新东方盘前涨2.7%中金看好其中长期盈利增长前景。

  迅雷盘前续涨超2%正式推出新版本插件功能大升级。

  腾讯音乐盘前涨超1%获机构看好。

  文远知行盘前涨约1.7%与黑莓旗下QNX达成合作。

  台积电盘前涨近1%拟于2027年小批量量产面板级先进半导体封装。

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