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专题:2024资本市场盘点

  华尔街见闻

  媒体分析称,特朗普对美联储的攻击正将世界进一步推离美国主导的轨道,因为各国政府和投资者正对美元和美国国债失去信心。

  特朗普第二任期已过去两个月,而美国在近一个世纪内逐步建立起的金融霸权,从未如今日这般摇摇欲坠。

  彭博新闻分析称,特朗普对美联储的攻击正将世界进一步推离美国主导的轨道,因为各国政府和投资者正对美元和美国国债失去信心。

  “特朗普交易”其实是“抛售美国”

  特朗普近期对美联储的猛烈抨击,尤其是迄今最为明确的威胁要解雇主席鲍威尔的言论,更加剧了他对几乎所有国家发起贸易战所引发的震荡。这促使人们重新评估那些支撑美国经济主导地位的关键资产。美元和美国国债,过去在危机时期被视为“避风港”的传统工具,如今突然变得不那么有吸引力。就在不久前,投资者还在期待所谓的“特朗普交易”,本质上是对“美国例外论”的加速炒作,而如今这更像是一场“抛售美国交易”。

  这只是更广泛、也可能更加痛苦的转变的一部分。美国家庭作为全球经济“最后购买者”的角色,如今也受到质疑。

  全球各国政府都和资产管理人处于同样的境地:在努力适应新现实。“全球地缘政治力量结构正在我们眼前重组,”德国商业银行董事长、德国央行前行长延斯·魏德曼上周说。他表示,美国的“过度特权”——这是一个半个多世纪前在欧洲创造的术语,用来形容美元的主导地位——“并非铁板钉钉”。

  使情况更为复杂的是,特朗普目前正在加剧他与美联储的口水战,要求立即降息。尽管从法律角度讲特朗普未必有权解雇鲍威尔,但他对投资者信心的伤害已经造成——美联储独立性作为美国市场根本吸引力的一部分,加上人们对法治的更广泛信任,正在受到侵蚀。

  巴克莱的策略师们在周一的一份下调美元预期的报告中写道:

  美国官员正呼吁外界耐心等待特朗普经济议程全面落地的成效。“要看完整套政策,”美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特(ScottBessent)在彭博电视上表示,并指出减税和放松监管措施即将推出。

  但这个世界,或许等不了太久。

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