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  证券时报记者吴琦

  昨日多只宽基ETF尾盘放量翻红,引发市场关注。多位市场人士表示,放量的ETF都曾受到“国家队”偏好,可能是“国家队”再次出手,为市场注入信心。

  近期市场波动加大,资金持续借道ETF加码投资A股。Wind数据显示,自4月7日以来,已有超1700亿元资金净流入股票型ETF。截至4月15日,跟踪沪深300指数的24只ETF合计规模再破万亿元大关。

  多只宽基ETF尾盘放量

  4月16日尾盘,华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF、华夏上证50ETF、易方达沪深300ETF、华夏沪深300ETF和嘉实沪深300ETF等5只宽基ETF尾盘集体放量拉升,收盘翻红,以上5只ETF合计成交额达到298.28亿元,较前一个交易日增加1.24倍。其中华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF成交额最高,超过83亿元,是上个交易日的2倍多。华夏上证50ETF成交额超过62亿元,也是上个交易日的2倍多。

  类似的情况也发生在其他宽基ETF上,如南方中证500ETF、易方达创业板ETF、南方中证1000ETF等也明显放量。

  多位市场人士表示,上述ETF都曾受到“国家队”偏好,可能是“国家队”再次出手,为市场注入信心。

  自4月7日以来,宽基ETF成交额频频放量。盘后数据显示,大笔资金净流入沪深300、中证500等宽基ETF,为A股市场企稳提供“真金白银”的支持。

  汇总来看,自4月7日以来,已有超1700亿元资金净流入股票型ETF。

  从具体产品来看,华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF获资金净流入最高,区间内共计337.46亿元资金加码该ETF。华夏沪深300ETF、易方达沪深300ETF、南方中证500ETF、南方中证1000ETF、华夏上证50ETF等近期均获超百亿资金净流入。

  值得注意的是,除了沪深300ETF外,中证1000ETF、中证500ETF、创业板ETF和科创板50ETF等宽基ETF亦受到大资金青睐,规模出现提升。可见,大资金增持ETF的力度不仅较大,增持的风格也更为均衡,覆盖面更广。

  ETF规模逼近4万亿元

  ETF规模的强劲增长,缘于长线资金的持续买入。

  在“国家队”、金融机构以及个人资金的不断接力下,ETF规模不断攀升。截至4月15日,全部上市ETF规模达到3.95万亿元,ETF规模有望在近期迈过4万亿元大关。其中股票型ETF总份额接近2.04万亿份,也在不断创出历史新高。

  在资金不断净流入的推动下,跟踪沪深300指数的24只ETF合计规模再破万亿元大关。此前,在2024年9月至10月期间,A股市场大反弹,曾推动沪深300ETF的总规模突破万亿元。

  2024年基金年报数据显示,“国家队”频频出现在ETF的持有人名单中。以目前规模最大的华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF为例,中央汇金资产管理有限责任公司2024年底增持近260亿份,份额规模达到266.21亿份,中央汇金投资有限责任公司和中央汇金资产管理有限责任公司两家公司合计持有该ETF的份额占比已超过69%。

  除了上述公司以外,中国国新、中国诚通等长线资金也多次宣布增持ETF,一些国资机构以及险资等中长期资金已成为A股市场股票ETF的重要持有人。

  东吴证券数据显示,截至2024年末,“国家队”持有A股ETF共1.05万亿元,占A股ETF总规模的36.1%,其中,在中证1000ETF、上证180ETF、沪深300ETF的持有占比均高于70%。“国家队”所偏好的15只ETF上周共计净流入1519亿元。

  与此同时,一大批股票ETF正处于发行募集期,有望为A股持续带来增量资金。数据显示,截至4月16日,共有22只股票ETF处于发售阶段,其中12只ETF为自由现金流主题ETF,另有汇添富中证机器人ETF、招商中证卫星产业ETF、华夏国证航天航空行业ETF等行业主题ETF,以及博时中证A50ETF、融通深证100ETF等宽基ETF。

  政策应对仍有较大空间

  对于近期A股市场的表现以及未来A股走势,景顺长城基金基金经理余广认为,中国在宏观政策应对方面具有较大的发力空间,如降准降息、刺激内需和扩大国内需求,以应对外部冲击。同时,A股的估值处于低位,下跌风险相对可控。

  博时基金宏观策略部表示,美国加征关税落地抑制了市场风险偏好,叠加国内政策空窗期,指数进入短暂的震荡颠簸期。配置上适度向哑铃型的价值、防御端倾斜,待财报和外部风险落地后,市场或迎来新的机会。

  长城基金高级宏观策略研究员汪立指出,短期内增量的宏观事件仍是未来一段时间的主要变量,市场可能处于波动较大、没有明确方向的阶段。另外,前期政策资金和央国企回购构筑的底部可能是当前市场的重要支撑。短期来看,市场有底有顶,底部来自政策资金做多带来的价格底,顶部来自出口受损预期带来的股市折价压力;中期看,市场仍需看到比较强力的政策刺激,才有持续做多的动力。

  具体策略来看,余广认为,宏观和市场仍存在不确定性,短期建议密切关注谈判走势以及各企业应对方案。下跌中更看重公司估值和基本面,基于中长期角度,自下而上选股来应对短期波动。关注被动下跌的内需股、互联网科技股、自主可控板块。

  汪立指出,市场的中期方向仍有赖于政策的支持,如果出台的是补充流动性相关政策,风险偏好抬升可能是市场主逻辑,科技等可能是更好的资产;如果是基本面刺激的政策,政策重点补贴方向可能也是市场交易的方向。

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