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  【环球时报驻美国特约记者萧达环球时报记者陈子帅】当地时间20日,包括美国路易斯安那州共和党参议员约翰·肯尼迪、芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比在内的多名官员公开发声,对美国总统特朗普近日多次施压美联储主席鲍威尔的行为提出批评,并力挺鲍威尔及美联储的做法。在特朗普第一任期就被提名的鲍威尔原本将连任至明年5月,为何眼下又成了特朗普的“眼中钉”?

  两人不和“不是秘密”

  据彭博社、美国全国广播公司等媒体21日报道,肯尼迪20日表示:“我认为任何总统都没有权力罢免美联储主席。”他还说:“美联储应该保持独立性。”古尔斯比也表示,美联储丧失制定货币政策的独立性,“美国通胀将更严重,经济增长会变缓,就业市场会更糟。”

  报道称,特朗普近来频繁指责鲍威尔将美联储“政治化”,未能配合其经济政策。特朗普17日在白宫公开表示:“如果我想让他(鲍威尔)走人,相信我,他很快就得走,我对他不满意。”白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特18日表示,特朗普及其团队将继续研究撤换鲍威尔的问题。

  “特朗普与鲍威尔不和多年,早已不是秘密。”美国“商业内幕”网站称,特朗普第一任期就在美联储内部制造事端,屡次施压美联储降息,并且经常因鲍威尔拒绝按其意愿行事而大加指责。报道称,如今进入“特朗普2.0”时代,宏观经济环境已然不同,但鲍威尔承受的压力丝毫未减。即便特朗普的关税政策让降息难度倍增,他仍执着于压低利率。

  “特朗普与鲍威尔之间的矛盾主要源于两人对货币政策的根本分歧,以及特朗普对美联储独立性的挑战。”清华大学战略与安全研究中心特约专家余翔21日对《环球时报》记者表示。

  非科班出身

  鲍威尔生于1953年,先后获得普林斯顿大学政治学学士学位和乔治敦大学法学博士学位,拥有律所、投行、私募基金、政府、智库的工作经验。与前几任美联储主席相比,鲍威尔并非“科班出身”,他是1981年以来首位没有经济学博士专业背景的美联储主席。

  2017年,特朗普首次入主白宫时提名鲍威尔接替耶伦担任美联储主席,打破了民主党人连续30年执掌美联储的传统。2021年,时任总统拜登提名鲍威尔连任,称其帮助美国从疫情期间的最严重经济下行中恢复过来。美媒当时称,拜登提名被前任总统任命的人“是个罕见的例子”。

  不少分析认为,鲍威尔是实用主义者。其与“前任”耶伦的保守、谨慎风格比较相似,在担任美联储理事5年多的时间里,在40余次议息会议中从未投过反对票。还有分析认为,鲍威尔不是简单的“鹰派”或“鸽派”,而更像是“灵活派”。在其主导美联储期间,既有2020年3月“历史性”降息的“鸽派”做法,也有2022年第二季度罕有的大幅加息的“鹰派”做法。

  直接解雇可能性较低

  据《华尔街日报》报道,美联储理事(共7名)由总统提名,参议院确认,任期为14年,其中一位理事将同时担任为期4年的美联储主席职务。而美国1913年通过的《联邦储备法案》规定,美联储理事只能因法定事由被免职。美国最高法院1935年更明确裁定,作为独立机构,美联储的董事会成员仅在“正当理由”下才可被提前免职。去年11月特朗普再次当选总统后,鲍威尔曾明确表示不会应总统要求辞职,并强调法律禁止总统任意撤换美联储主席。有报道称,如果要正式撤换鲍威尔,必须启动一项冗长的法律程序,并证明其有严重渎职行为。

  余翔告诉《环球时报》记者:“特朗普直接解雇鲍威尔的可能性较低,主要因法律门槛高、市场风险大。特朗普可能选择等待鲍威尔任期自然结束。”他还称,鲍威尔任期结束后,特朗普可能考虑其他与共和党关系密切、支持宽松政策的经济学家或金融界人士担任美联储主席。

  “不排除这是特朗普的一种威胁手段。”中国国际问题研究院美国研究所副所长张腾军表示,特朗普可能知道这样做会面临法律和政治上的争议,希望以此来给鲍威尔和美联储施压,让其在货币政策上迎合自己的要求。美媒日前援引知情人士的话称,特朗普曾与前美联储理事凯文·沃什讨论直接解雇鲍威尔的可能性,并可能选择沃什作为接替者。不过,沃什本人建议特朗普应让鲍威尔完成当前任期。   

  据报道,现年55岁的沃什是摩根士丹利的前高管,由美国前总统小布什提名进入美联储。哈佛大学经济学家肯尼斯·罗格夫在今年1月份的一篇博客文章中表示,沃什在控制通胀方面比鲍威尔更“鹰派”,倾向于维持高利率。

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