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乐可小说在线全文免费阅读笔趣:它那要了我的可怕行径
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  市场今日全天较为平淡,主线不清,主要股指涨跌不一。沪深两市全天成交额1.08万亿,较上个交易日缩量2003亿。截至收盘,沪指涨0.15%,深成指跌0.27%,创业板指跌0.13%,中证A500指数跌0.12%。

  来源:财联社

  宏观方面,昨日发布了3月进出口数据,以美元计价出口同比增长12.4%(Bloomberg一致预期4.4%),进口同比下降4.3%(一致预期降2.0%),出口大幅超预期,可能受到关税前置效应的影响。预计关税不确定性是短期内影响出口的最大因素,随着4月美关税落地,对美出口或将显著下行。根据中金公司测算,按照23年年报口径,对美敞口较大的行业主要是电子、家电、汽车、机械设备、纺织服装等。

  海外市场方面,昨日美股也在关税引发的持续动荡后恢复平静,VIX恐慌指数回落至4月2日对等关税宣布以来的最低水平,这主要是因为美国政府近期采取了一些安抚市场的行动,以应对此前的股债汇三杀。不过,关税和贸易战的前景依然不容乐观,并且对美国而言,其政策空间较上次中美贸易战而言将明显更小,因为财政基本没有发力的余地,而货币政策也需在增长和通胀之间走钢丝。

  展望后市,尽管美方宣称已在和许多国家开展贸易谈判,但缺乏明确成果;美政府已经对半导体和制药行业开展国安调查,将可能随时停止其关税豁免,从而给市场带来新一轮震荡。川普政府在关税上的一意孤行或将在长期显著挫伤投资者对美的信心,导致其资产贬值和企业CAPEX(增速)下降。

  反观国内,政策的空间和确定性明显都更高,有望通过内需刺激对冲一部分出口损失。新发布的3月社融超预期,同比多增1.06万亿元,其中政府债净融资达到1.48万亿元,同比多增1万亿元左右,是支撑社融的重要因素。同时,财政存款仍在高位,显示短期内财政力度仍有空间。此前,在经济形势专家和企业家座谈会上,国务院总理李强称要“做大做强国内大循环,把扩大内需作为长期战略”。下一阶段,国内稳增长对冲政策的速度和力度值得关注。

  在市场主线不清、板块轮动较快时,可以逢低布局中证A500ETF(159338)、上证综指ETF(510760)等宽基产品。同时,为了应对海外关税冲击可能带来的市场波动,投资者亦可分散配置于现金流ETF(159399)等防御类资产。

  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  在对等关税、出口限制等的影响下,半导体芯片产业链的国产替代趋势有望全面加速。

  根据海关数据,去年我国进口芯片金额达3,856亿美元,其中处理器及控制器占比50%,存储芯片占比25%,高端芯片对外依赖度较高。与此同时,芯片(以成熟制程为主)首次成为我国第一大出口品类,出口金额同比增长16.9%。去年我国从美国进口的半导体设备金额约为45亿美金,占SEMI口径的中国半导体设备市场规模约为10%。

  上周,中国半导体行业协会发布关于半导体产品“原产地”认定规则的紧急通知,明确集成电路原产地以流片地为准,即原产地将是制造工厂所在地,而不是芯片的封装地点。伯恩斯坦研究公司(BernsteinResearch)分析称,由于晶圆厂的转移更困难,所以这对依赖美国晶圆厂的企业是利空。长期来看,也有利于倒逼国产替代的加速。

  从技术层面来看,自2022年美国对华半导体设备限制不断加大以来,国产设备在大部分环节都被加速验证,已经具有一定的经济性。就芯片而言,美国生产商已经开始面临本土模拟芯片制造商的较大竞争压力。2023年,德州仪器将平均售价下调了30%,但这一策略并未使它占据更大的市场份额。

  从客户的偏好来看,据中信建投称,头部客户的国产替代诉求较强,不在清单的客户也在加速导入国产,预计后续国产化率的提升斜率更加陡峭。

  考虑到AI产业趋势所带来的需求释放,国内半导体芯片产业链或存在较大机遇。可关注半导体设备ETF(159516)、芯片ETF(512760)、集成电路ETF(159546)、科创芯片ETF国泰(589100)等产品的投资机会。

  风险提示:投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的风险,不能保证投资人获得收益,也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。无论是股票ETF/LOF/分级基金,都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种,其预期收益及预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票,会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风险,提请投资者注意。板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料,仅供参考,不构成对基金业绩的保证。文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考,不构成股票推荐,也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。以上观点仅供参考,不构成投资建议或承诺。如需购买相关基金产品,请您关注投资者适当性管理相关规定、提前做好风险测评,并根据您自身的风险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金有风险,投资需谨.

  作者:国泰基金

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