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ST春天(600381.SH)的“保壳”之战遭遇重挫。

4月16日深夜,ST春天公告称,收到年审会计师政旦志远(深圳)会计师事务所(特殊普通合伙)(以下简称“政旦志远”)《关于青海春天药用资源科技股份有限公司2024年度财务报表审计阶段性说明》(以下简称“《审计说明》”)。

政旦志远表示,截至目前,根据其获取的审计证据,初步认定按照营业收入确认原则以及上海证券交易所《营业收入扣除指引》,ST春天经调整或者扣除后的2024年度营业收入将不足3亿元,将触发《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》规定的财务类退市风险警示。

图源:听花酒官网

今年1月16日,ST春天发布2024年度业绩预亏公告,预计2024年度实现营业收入为3.11亿元至3.39亿元,扣除与主营业务无关的业务收入和不具备商业实质的收入后的营业收入为3.05亿元至3.33亿元——这个数字距离触发股票退市风险警示红线仅一步之遥,因此不仅招致投资者质疑,也引发监管注意。

上交所随即下发监管工作函,要求ST春天就营业收入真实性等问题作出回复,重点说明2024年第四季度业绩大幅增长的原因及合理性、是否存在为规避实施退市风险警示而突击确认收入的情况。

公告显示,2024年第四季度,ST春天酒水销售业务实现营收5420.03万元,环比增长425.33%,同比增长147.47%,占酒水销售业务全年收入的47.33%;预计实现营业收入1.13亿元至1.41亿元,同比增长111.62%至164.53%。

2月25日,ST春天针对上交所的问询公告回复称,每年的第四季度为白酒行业传统的销售旺季,此期间市场需求普遍增长,且2024年第四季度公司逐步恢复主要媒体的广告投放、和经销商共同加强线下品鉴会、活动赞助等系列市场营销活动,对符合条件的经销商调整部分支持政策,给予年度激励及季度激励,大大提高经销商的经营积极性。

“行业周期叠加上述广告、线下品鉴等营销活动加强、经销商对市场销售预期和经营信心、积极性提高等因素,因此公司酒水销售业务业绩在第四季度出现大幅增长是合理的,也符合行业规律,第四季度销售业绩的增长,也使得该板块业务2024年的营业收入同比出现大幅度的增长。”

关于是否存在突击确认收入的情况,ST春天称,公司的酒水业务经销商为预收货款进行销售,协议约定不得退货,根据合同约定的交付方式,公司收到货款后,将商品发送至经销商或经销商指定的地址,在核实数量及商品外观进行签收后,确认收入,“不存在未满足收入确认条件而确认收入、年底突击确认的情形。”

政旦志远对此的回复是,初步评估认为管理层出于营业收入指标方面的压力以及面临新退市规则中营业收入指标影响,2024年度特别是第四季度营业收入大幅增长可能导致收入确认存在重大错报风险,但由于审计工作尚在进行中,尚无法发表审计意见。

随着审计工作的推进,ST春天的财务风险逐渐暴露。

政旦志远在最新发布的《审计说明》中指出,ST春天2024年第四季度酒水业务营收异常增长“缺乏商业合理性”,“在整体消费需求下行、公司白酒市场规模有限且非稀缺商品的情况下,经销商大规模提前采购不符合行业常规。”

政旦志远还称,ST春天部分客户如众香国、苏州金独花2024年12月销售异常增长,但期后销售比例较低,存在年底突击发货确认收入的嫌疑,“我们也注意到,公司2024年1月对成都听花令一次性确认销售收入2654.83万元,而该客户截至2024年底大部分酒水尚未实现对外销售,该部分收入所涉及的金额大概为6810.76万元。”

“若在后续审计过程中,我们无法获取充分、适当的审计证据来消除上述疑虑,这些事项将对财务报表产生重大且广泛的影响。”政旦志远表示,根据审计准则的规定,预计会对ST春天2024年度财务报表整体发表无法表示意见或者否定意见的审计意见类型。

对此,ST春天在公告中回应称,公司将积极配合年审会计师的工作,并向其提供充分的审计证据和进行充分的沟通,以消除年审会计师的疑虑,会计师将根据审计证据获取情况发表相应的审计意见,最终审计意见以《审计报告》为准。

4月17日,ST春天股价一字跌停,报收4.16元/股,总市值24.42亿元,较历史最高点下跌近80%。

值得注意的是,在努力“保壳”的同时,ST春天旗下白酒品牌听花酒开始恢复线上销售业务。

据时代财经了解,近日,听花酒京东旗舰店“听花极草专卖店”已恢复营业,目前只有一款产品“听花酒【PLUS版】酱香风格标准装53度750ml”在售,售价5860元,限购4件。

淘宝、拼多多等电商平台仍未能检索到听花酒相关产品。

  黄金再一次涨上热搜。

  随着全球政治不确定性的增加和避险情绪的升温,国际金价持续上涨。伦敦现货黄金价格4月17日盘中一度升至每盎司3350美元上方,4月来累计涨幅超6%。今年以来,以人民币计价的现货黄金价格已累计上涨约27%。

  波动的避险资产

  作为典型的避险资产,黄金涨势并不是想象中的一路上扬,而是先经历了短暂的价格跳水。

  4月2日,美国总统特朗普宣布开征“对等关税”后,国际金价出现跳水,几日就回吐了此前近一个月的涨幅。

  对于这一阶段行情的特殊性,一位券商从业人士告诉界面新闻记者,在对等关税政策落地后,作为传统避险资产的黄金之所以经历了短暂的下跌,一方面是面对加征关税政策,投资者不得不抛售黄金以换取流动性,另一方面由于此前纽约金相对伦敦金有较大溢价,最后黄金等贵金属未被列入加征关税名单,此前将黄金运往纽约的套利行为中止,也使得金价回调。

  4月9日起,黄金价格逐渐企稳走高,连日刷新高点,4月16日和17日,国际金价接连创历史新高。

  中欧基金基金经理叶培培表示,接下来黄金连续上涨,主要由于美债面临大幅被抛售,美元信用受到挑战。近期贸易摩擦的短期爆发导致市场对于未来逆全球化、去美元化的风险进一步确认。

  根据历史经验,世界货币的地位动摇或者向另一货币的转换,意味着所有国家(包括央行和机构)试图增持黄金。央行公布的黄金储备数据显示,截至2025年3月末,我国黄金储备7370万盎司,较2月末的7361万盎司增加9万盎司,央行已连续5个月扩大黄金储备。

  叶培培认为,美国财政赤字超预期也使得金价在上周五(4月11日)迅速上行。参众两院的共和党人就2025年财年预算案达成一致,启动了预算协调过程,宽松程度超出市场预期。10年维度内允许减税5.3万亿(含4万亿减税与就业法案延期),但仅仅削减40亿支出(此前众议院版本要求削减2万亿支出),同时提高5万亿债务上限。美国尽责联邦预算委员会(CRFB)估计未来10年将累计增加5.8万亿赤字。

  避险需求的抬升和央行购金的持续是推动金价上涨的主要动力。

  招商银行研究院在报告中指出,2025年,央行购金可能会有所放缓,对黄金也将从助涨因素转为支撑因素:一是全球地缘政治风险面临降温的趋势;二是央行对黄金价格较为敏感,金价上涨时购金量会有所减少,但整体来看央行购金仍处于长期净买入周期。

  叶培培也表示,接下来关税扰动对全球经济造成的潜在衰退可能以及减税政策的通过对美国财政造成进一步恶化都是对金价利多的因素。

  黄金理财何以掘金?

  伴随着金价上涨,资金也加速涌入黄金资产。3月份全球黄金ETF总流入量为92吨,价值为86亿美元,第一季度流入的总值达到210亿美元。

  国内市场来看,商品型黄金ETF四月以来资金流入也迎来增长。界面新闻记者根据Wind数据统计,截至4月16日,14只黄金ETF4月份的资金净流入超过295亿元,直逼去年全年309亿元的资金流入量。

  其中华安黄金ETF4月16日一天就净流入7.14亿元,易方达、博时、国泰等ETF也分别流入4.77亿元、1.51亿元和1.43亿元。

  从业绩表现来看,黄金ETF近一周涨幅近9%,截至4月16日,今年以来14只黄金ETF的涨幅均超26%。投资黄金产业链上市公司股票的黄金股ETF涨势则更明显。

  银行理财方面也有不少挂钩黄金的理财产品。根据中国理财网数据,搜索产品名称关键词“黄金”,目前市场上存续44只黄金理财产品,其中11只由理财公司发行,处于待售状态的产品则有19只,全部来自银行理财公司。

  从资产配置来看,“固收+黄金”理财产品和结构化产品是目前主流。

  “固收+黄金”模式即在固收打底的基础上,通过黄金类资产增厚收益。风险等级多为二级或三级,匹配银行理财投资者相对较低的风险偏好。黄金与股债的相关性相对较低,兼具避险属性和对冲通胀等优势,与股债进行多元搭配,分散风险。

  据界面新闻记者不完全统计,截至4月16日,多只“固收+黄金”银行理财产品今年以来年化收益率在2.5%左右。美国关税政策落地短期之内利好债市,黄金上涨叠加固守市场的好行情,“固收+黄金”不失为一个稳健的选择。

  而另一种主流产品——黄金结构性理财产品的配置策略为:不低于80%资产投资于固定收益类资产,其预估固收资产收益投资于挂钩黄金的期权,最低损失为期权费,但可以分享黄金上涨收益机会的策略。当前支持各类结构的定制包括不限于自动触发、二元结构、鲨鱼鳍等结构。

  除了了解产品的特性和关注市场政策变化,普益标准研究员建议投资者建立“分散投资”意识:将资金分散投资于不同类型的挂钩黄金理财产品中,以降低单一产品带来的风险。同时,也可以考虑将挂钩黄金的理财产品作为资产配置的一部分,与其他资产进行组合投资,以实现资产的多元化配置。

  近期黄金涨势虽好,但整体仍在震荡。一位银行理财业内人士也对界面新闻记者表示:目前业内整体还是对黄金比较看好,将更多从其短期的震荡中找寻配置机会。

  在波动的市场上“掘金”无疑对投研人员和投资者都提出了更高的要求。为了提醒投资者理性投资,近期多家银行密集调整积存金起购门槛,工商银行、招商银行、建设银行、中国银行等多家银行纷纷加入,目前,积存金业务的起购门槛在750元至1000元不等,以提示投资者合理控制仓位,持续保持理性,避免追涨杀跌。

  4月17日,贝壳最新公告显示,贝壳董事会主席、首席执行官及控股股东彭永东拟捐赠9,000,000股A类贝壳普通股,资金将用于居住行业服务者及其家庭成员的医疗健康福利和应届毕业生等租客群体的租房帮扶。

  行业分析人士看来,此次捐赠将助益于居住行业,同时也用事实破除了外界关于“天价年薪”的误解。

  2022年5月贝壳香港上市时,根据联交所的上市规则,具有同股不同权(WVR)架构的公司,WVR持有人(即超级投票权持有人)的股份所对应的经济利益占比不得低于10%。贝壳具有此架构,且上市前超级投票权持有人之一贝壳董事会主席、首席执行官及控股股东彭永东持有的权益相对较低。因此为了满足该上市规则的要求,在联交所批准的前提下,公司向彭永东授予限制性股票。该限制性股票,在会计规则上采用“直线摊销法”,因此在每年的“股权薪酬”科目产生了较大数额,但并非一般理解的年薪。

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