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  来源:华尔街见闻

  德银认为美元牛市终结、熊市开启,核心原因包括全球对美双赤字融资意愿降、美资产持有量见顶、多国更倾向于国内财政促增长。欧元/美元汇率将在2025年结束时达到1.15,之后逐步逼近1.30。

  美元一轮较长的熊市要开始了?

  23日,德银TimBaker团队发布研报指出,自年初以来,全球出现了一系列重大变化,包括美国贸易政策的转变、德国财政政策的调整以及对美国地缘政治领导地位的重新评估。这些事件,正在挑战自二战以来全球金融体系的基础,共同促成了美元进入下行周期的前提条件。

  德银认为,其中的核心原因包括全球对美双赤字融资意愿降、美资产持有量见顶、多国更倾向于国内财政促增长。

  报告预测,欧元/美元汇率将在2025年结束时达到1.15,2026年升至1.20,之后逐步逼近1.30。美元将结束“高利率”时代,这对全球经济和资本流动将产生深远影响。

  美元熊市的核心:全球对美国“双赤字”融资意愿下降

  德银认为,美元的牛市已走到尽头,预示着一轮较长的熊市开始。

  2025年年初以来,美元指数表现已出现明显转折,从长时间的强势逐步走向调整。理由集中在三个核心评判:

  报告强调,市场可能出现非线性反应和制度性突破的风险,特别是美联储的独立性可能受到挑战。

  风险提示及免责条款

  市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

  一、未及时披露业绩预告

  4月22日晚,葫芦娃公告称,预计2024年归母净利润亏损2.5亿元至2.8亿元,上年同期盈利1.06亿元;扣非净利润亏损3亿元至3.3亿元,上年同期盈利8180.68万元。按照相关法律法规,上市公司业绩预告本应在1月披露,但该公司却直到离正式的年报披露仅剩最后几天才公告。同日晚间,上交所就葫芦娃业绩数据调整相关事项向其下发监管工作函。

  年度业绩预告虽然只是预测性信息,但仍是投资者进行投资决策时的重要参考,上市公司须充分考量预测依据,从而审慎做出预测。该公司迟至现在才披露业绩报告之外,且其披露的业绩大幅亏损,这是让投资者始料未及的,也导致公司股价出现下跌。上海沪紫律师事务所刘鹏律师表示,信息披露不及时导致投资者遭受损失,现暂定于2024年8月29日-2025年4月22日(含当日)期间买入,并在2025年4月23日之后卖出或仍持有而亏损的可报名索赔。

  二、维权行动正式开启

  至于为何迟至现在才披露业绩预告,葫芦娃表示,由于前期公司在组织2023年自查工作,其中公司部分客户的销售模式和研发会计处理尚在认定过程中,随着公司自查和年度审计工作的深入,公司近期已完成上述事项认定。受上述原因影响,故未能够及时在1月31日前披露。

  业绩预告是为了避免在财务报告正式公布时公司股票价格出现大幅波动,以提前释放业绩风险,保障中小投资者等信息弱势群体的利益。如果因为上市公司信息披露不及时,导致投资者如股东、公司等因信息披露义务人的虚假陈述而遭受损失,那么这些投资者可以要求上市公司赔偿其差额损失、佣金损失、印花税损失以及相应的利息损失。

  (本文由上海沪紫律师事务所刘鹏律师供稿,不代表新浪财经的观点。刘鹏律师,专注证券维权19年,自2006年执业以来,成功为中青宝、国华网安(维权)、劲嘉股份(维权)等300余家上市公司的中小投资者成功维权,案件在办数量超过14000起,胜诉率达99.2%。作为业内资深证券维权律师,刘鹏律师精准把握案件核心,诉讼经验丰富,索赔策略高效,为投资者争取最大权益,维权实力行业领先。证券维权,选对律师是关键!专业决定胜算,经验确保结果,首选刘鹏律师,让您的索赔更稳妥、更高效!)(刘鹏律师专栏)

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