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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82
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清远市(英德市、连州市、清城区、连山壮族瑶族自治县、连南瑶族自治县、阳山县、清新区、佛冈县)

1、李强总理主持召开经济形势专家和企业家座谈会。新华社消息,中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强4月9日下午主持召开经济形势专家和企业家座谈会,听取对当前经济形势和下一步经济工作的意见建议。座谈会上总理表示,“外部冲击对我国经济平稳运行造成一定压力。我们对此已经作了充分估计,做好了应对各种不确定因素的准备”。2、特朗普“对等关税”经历多番调整。自特朗普4月2日宣布对多国征收“对等关税”后,不到十天以来其关税政策经历多次调整,整体来看关税新政仍处于混乱期。3、大类资产轮动展望:4月决断,应对波动率放大,待冲击落地继续攻坚。重视黄金,债券重点挖掘转债。特朗普关税政策内部阻力已初露端倪,我们预计财政进一步扩张和货币适度宽松协同配合,后续降准降息政策尚有空间以及大力提振消费有关措施有望加快落地应对特朗普“对等关税”冲击。

风险提示:特朗普新政不确定性超出市场预期;隐债化解落地时滞;地缘政治冲突升级。

1、白酒:龙头增持彰显信心,关注财报催化。本周白酒板块-0.43%,表现强于上证综指(-3.11%),我们认为,当前中美关税政策波动背景下,白酒板块表现相对稳健主要系目前白酒仍以内需为主,外需敞口较低,受关税政策变动影响相对较小。2、继续关注内需消费行情,看好潜在顺周期下三大投资主体机会。乳制品方面,我们认为生育/奶粉补贴等政策的持续推出、上游牛肉价格上行以及潜在上游原奶拐点逻辑或持续刺激乳制品(上游牧场+下游乳企)弹性表现。零食方面,24Q2基数相对较低(增速较24Q1放缓),随着传统商超渠道加速调改+新渠道亮点多多(包括加速推进与量贩零食合作+线上内容电商+出海等),后续零食公司有望通过继续抢夺未充分发掘的渠道增量实现双位数增长。大众品方面我们继续持续重点推荐乳制品和零食板块,同时食品方面关注“餐饮”/“出海”/“原奶拐点”三大主题投资机会。

风险提示:供过于求;食品安全风险;需求疲软;市场同质化产品竞争加剧。

1、碳纤维:我们认为目前T300大丝束已处于阶段性底部阶段,但考虑到部分公司仍有产能快速释放,不排除后期继续价格战的可能,单从原丝环节来看,主要系吉林碳谷。民品T700领域,长期来看,下游新能源领域持续高景气,公司产能扩张有望带动业绩持续释放,预浸料业务如进展顺利后续或带来新增量,建议关注中复神鹰。2、电子材料:我们持续看好未来3-5年折叠屏手机的持续渗透,我们认为,产业链中的卡脖子环节仍将在一段时间内获得相应溢价。此外我们看好光刻胶及高频高速CCL上游原材料中的国产替代逻辑。重点推荐:世名科技、凯盛科技。3、新能源材料:光伏方面,下游需求端仍维持较快增速,但产业链各环节扩张较快,我们判断需等待出清。风电方面,目前海风突破层层阻碍,持续放量,风电叶片环节集中度较高,重点推荐时代新材。风险提示:下游需求不及预期,行业格局恶化,原材料涨价超预期,关税存在一定不确定性。

一、本轮黄金价格上涨背后的购买力量相比历史周期更加多元和复杂,短中长期叙事有各自聚焦的指标与逻辑,随着宏观环境的复杂多变,价格的判断难度进一步加大。二、美元信用弱化加速金价上行,黄金矿企利润对金价敏感窗口开启。特朗普对全球大幅加征关税,市场对美国经济衰退风险、美债偿付风险的担忧增强,随着美元指数快速下行,市场在美元信用弱化的叙事上形成合力,金价上行趋势中的短期噪音有望相对弱化而更注重长期叙事。当下黄金股估值处于五年期20%分位,板块修复兼具空间与动力。黄金上涨动力的再加强,本质是增强了黄金矿业公司业绩增长的持续性与稳定性,有望系统性修复行业PE水平,估值上修空间可期。建议关注:赤峰黄金、山东黄金、山金国际、招金矿业(H)、中金黄金、湖南黄金、株冶集团、盛达资源等。

风险提示:中美贸易摩擦的风险,金价大幅下跌的风险,公司扩产不及预期的风险。

公司2019-2024年收入/归母净利润CAGR分别为22%/25%。1、新兴行业发展潜力较大,技术壁垒为主要竞争要素。2023年全球/中国膳食纤维收入分别为5.14/1.29亿美元(同比+7.8%/+10.5%),预计2030年达到10.0/3.1亿美元。据GlobalInfoResearch,阿洛酮糖2024年全球市场规模约为2亿美元,预计2030年达到5亿美元,25年阿洛酮糖国内审批有望落地,或将为公司打开新增量空间。2、产能扩张带来业绩增量,下游需求稳定性较强。公司产品符合食饮健康化、无糖化大趋势,终端消费需求旺盛,下游客户分散且粘性较大,公司整体议价权较高,后续有望通过深化老客户合作以及拓展新客户带动增长。公司在β上行背景下有望通过两大项目放量实现收入利润较高增长,我们预计24-26年公司营业收入同比+33%/31%/27%至11.5/15.1/19.2亿元,归母净利润同比+30%/33%/30%至2.5/3.3/4.4亿元,对应PE分别为23X/17X/13X。根据相对估值法,我们给予公司25年25X估值,对应目标价为26元,首次覆盖,给予“买入”评级。

风险提示:项目投产不及预期;结构升级不及预期;市场竞争加剧;上游成本波动;阿洛酮糖国内审批风险;食品安全风险;业绩预告仅为初步核算结果,具体数据以公司正式发布的24年年报为准。

2024年公司实现营业收入859.17亿元,同比增加55.74亿元、增长6.94%;实现毛利70.39亿元,同比增加3.07亿元、增长4.56%;实现归母净利润6.35亿元,同比减少1.10亿元、下降14.80%。1、2024年新签合同创历史新高。2024年公司累计实现新签合同额1250.76亿元,同比+14.39%,创历史新高,其中国内市场新签合同额879.56亿元、海外371.20亿元,占比分别为70.32%和29.68%。公司在手合同额约1600亿元,后续工作量保障充分。2、公司发布估值提升计划暨“提质增效重回报”行动方案。公司拟对2025年度可分配利润适时进行两次分红,实现以现金方式分配的2025年度利润累计拟不低于2025年度归属母公司所有者净利润的30%。原预测2024/2025/2026年归母净利润为8.57/10.21/11.61亿元,考虑到公司管道与储运业务持续承压,我们调整2025/2026年盈利预测为7.46/8.17亿元,并新增2027年预测8.41亿元,维持“买入”评级。风险提示:宏观经济风险;原油价格波动风险;“一带一路”需求恢复不及预期;订单转化风险;汇率波动风险。

公司发布2024年年报,2024年全年营业收入5.50亿元,同比+20.50%;归母净利润0.94亿元,同比+11.09%;扣非归母净利润0.82亿元,同比+15.67%。1、24Q4业绩亮眼,单季扣非归母净利润同比+38%。2024Q4公司单季收入1.85亿元,同比+25.42%;归母净利润0.40亿元,同比+24.52%。2、分布式光伏配置功率预测系统正在经历“0→1”阶段:①24M4新国标要求分布式光伏电站接入电网应具备功率预测数据提报要求;②25M4南网要求12月前全网完成分布式新能源预测准确率需达到80%(广东应达到85%)。随着分布式“四可”要求的全面落地,公司新能源发电功率预测服务需求有望进一步释放。功率预测奠定成长基石,创新业务打开成长空间,综合考虑24年业绩,我们预计2025-2027年归母净利润为1.2、1.5、1.9亿元(25-26年前值为1.3、1.7亿元),分别同比+29%、+26%、+26%,对应PE为49、39、31倍,维持“买入”投资评级。

风险提示:政策变动风险、业务成长无法持续的风险、技术创新失败风险、市场竞争风险、应收账款延迟或无法收回的风险、核心技术泄密的风险。

证券研究报告《天风晨会集萃》

对外发布时间:2025年04月16日

报告发布机构天风证券股份有限公司(已获中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格)

本报告分析师王茜 SAC执业证书编号:S1110516090005

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