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  汇通财经APP讯——黄金市场在盘中触及每盎司3500美元以上的纪录高位一天后出现大幅回调,但一位市场分析师表示,金价涨势远未结束,因为黄金的持有量严重不足,从某些指标来看仍很便宜。

  道明证券(TDS)的大宗商品策略主管BartMelek最近表示,随着黄金突破每盎司3400美元的抛物线走势令金价“在某些技术水准上超买”,投资者可能会看到一些短期波动。

  不过,他表示,从整体来看,黄金仍被投资者普遍忽视。

  至于在当前升势中金价能走多高,Melek表示,金价经通胀调整后的高位可追溯至上世纪70年代,现货市场的历史高位经通胀调整后应当为每盎司3544美元。

  他说:“这对黄金来说可能是个不错的技术目标。对比历史金价与成本曲线,该比率表明我们还可以走得更远。”

  Melek表示,如果出现更广泛的回调,他会观察是否能守住3100美元的支撑位。

  Melek在分析黄金市场的投资者时指出,大宗商品交易顾问(CTA)通常被认为是投机趋势的追随者,他们大量做多黄金期货,大多数都处于最大头寸。这可能会给黄金带来一些短期压力,因为这群人会在价格上涨时获利了结。

  与此同时,Melek指出,非CTA全权交易员仍未购买黄金。

  他说:“这部分市场不买黄金的一个重要原因是,套利成本仍然相当高。通胀依然顽固,一些人开始怀疑美联储降息力度。”

  上周,美联储主席鲍威尔表示,美联储将等待更多有关经济走向的数据,然后再调整其当前的货币政策。

  Melek表示,他预计疲弱的经济增长将迫使美联储降息,推动投资者对黄金的新需求。

  他还表示,尽管持有黄金的机会成本仍将居高不下,但黄金仍是重要的避险资产。

  他表示:“如果股市表现不佳,黄金往往是一种很好的避险资产,尤其是在人们越来越担心美元可能不再像过去那样具有储备货币的影响力之际。这对债券市场来说可能意味着非常糟糕的事情,而对黄金将是非常有利的。”

  为了说明黄金市场尚未开发的潜力,Melek强调了对黄金ETF的投资需求。虽然今年迄今大量资金流入ETF,但黄金持有量仍较2020年的纪录高点下降了20%。

  尽管大量投资者继续忽视黄金,但Melek指出,市场上有一个群体正在尽可能多地购买这种贵金属,那就是各国央行。

  他说,由于全球贸易战,各国将进一步多元化减少对美元的依赖,他预计各国央行将继续购买黄金。

  他称:“央行将继续购买黄金,因为他们质疑美国作为贸易伙伴的可靠性。尽管长期美债正在抛售,但美元仍在走弱。这不应该发生,因此肯定有迹象表明,并非所有的美债都是传统的避险资产,黄金将从中受益。”

  现货黄金日线图来源:易汇通北京时间4月24日10:41现货黄金报3339.65美元/盎司

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