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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82
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  每经记者范芊芊    每经编辑马子卿    

  据港交所4月16日披露,溜溜梅母公司溜溜果园披露港交所IPO申请材料。根据招股书,公司主要提供三大产品类别:梅干零食、西梅产品及梅冻。

  招股书显示,根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料,2024年,溜溜果园在中国天然果冻行业(按零售额计)排名第一,市场份额为45.7%。根据同一资料来源,2024年,溜溜果园在中国梅产品行业(按零售额计)排名第一,市场份额为7%。从财务表现来看,2022年、2023年及2024年,公司的总收入分别为11.74亿元、13.22亿元及16.16亿元,净利润分别为6840万元、9920万元及1.48亿元。

  4月17日,A50ETF华宝(159596)成交额1.04亿元,位居同类13只产品第三名。

  天风证券认为,无论关税最终落地节奏与幅度如何,底线思维来看,美国软着陆叙事存在一定不确定性,而中国在关税摩擦具备韧性。围绕关税2.0判断二季度三个交易主线分别为内需消费、自主可控与国产替代、错杀与转口贸易。

  美国财政空间受到债务上限掣肘,而经过前几年较为克制的财政,我国财政周期正处于由收缩走向扩张的过渡期,财政空间仍有很大余地。通胀方面,目前美国非周期性通胀已经开始反弹,而我国目前PPI、CPI均处于历史低位,对应货币政策空间更大。库存方面,我国正处于补库周期起点,并未面临去库压力,目前中美库存周期波动较为同步。

  主线一:消费与内需

  消费的核心逻辑是政策加码预期下的重估预期;消费的第二个逻辑是地产、化债、“小长假”支撑下的基本面改善预期。而当前,在政策端加码预期的前提下,我们认为,二季度消费基本面只要延续稳中向好趋势,便会进一步巩固消费板块核心逻辑,内需消费有望成为二季度投资主线。选股思路上,可以重点关注两点:一是避开出口/出海方向以对冲关税冲击,二是选择政策直接受益或政策反转能够带来利好的板块,重点关注农业、旅游业、食品饮料等内需板块。

  主线二:自主可控与国产替代

  “反制”主线的逻辑是国内供给替代原先对美进口的供给。中国对美反制措施可能推升中国对美进口商品价格,导致对美依赖度较高的商品种类出现供给缺口,国内供给端替代供给缺口下相关板块有望看到盈利驱动下的业绩改善。在板块的筛选上,还需关注国内供给能力的提升维度,即国产化率能够加速提升的领域才具备进口替代能力。筛选对美进口依赖度较高且国内具备供给能力的板块,主要涉及农产品、航空装备、医药以及部分机械行业。自主可控则需选择细分的科技方向。

  主线三:错杀与转口贸易

  寻找“错杀”类个股或板块即出口链中寻找超跌后的反转。反转逻辑来自原先因为对美出口敞口较大经历下跌的板块,但由于关税政策的落地延缓、中国与其他国家贸易关系改善下,关税实际负面影响没那么大的预期差。反转的第一类是转口贸易,在其他国家关税政策扭转与美国进口需求中短期找不到替代的前提下,其他国家产能不足以应对美国进口需求,则对应品类具备较大的转口贸易优势,可以对冲一部分关税扰动。反转的第二类是贸易链重塑。全球贸易逆风下,中欧经贸存在双向引力。

  资料显示,A50ETF华宝(159596)及其场外联接基金(A类021216/C类021217)被动跟踪中证A50指数,该指数汇聚A股行业核心龙头,50只成份股分别来自50个中证三级行业,全面表征A股标杆型核心资产!做多中国,首选A50。

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