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戒断反应傅识舟:如何在绝境中找到希望与勇气!

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澳门特别行政区

新王诞生。

在房地产业的深度调整期,市场洗牌加剧,新的“霸主”正在诞生。

4月15日晚间,中国建筑发布2024年年报显示,去年中国建筑的房地产业务实现销售额4219亿元,虽然较上年下降6.5%,但仍然超过保利,成为行业第一。

就规模而论,这也是中国建筑首次成为房地产行业的老大。

近几年,中国建筑旗下的中海地产和局院地产频频发力,行业排名也不断上升。早在今年年初发布业绩简报时,中国建筑就确立了行业第一的地位。随着年报全文的发布,这家基建央企发力房地产的背景愈加明朗。

2024年,中国建筑的地产业务毛利率为17.3%,明显高于另外两大主业(房建、基建)。同期,地产业务以14%的收入占比,贡献了25.4%的毛利润。

分析人士指出,地产业务的利润率相对较高,以及国央企的比较优势凸显,是促使中国建筑发力房地产的主要原因。从近期公司的拿地情况看,其行业老大的地位恐怕很难撼动。

首成行业“老大”

中国建筑旗下拥有中海地产和中建地产两大房地产品牌。其中,中海地产于1992年在港交所上市,股票简称为“中国海外发展”,是一家以成本管控能力著称的大型老牌房企。

中建地产是公司各局院地产业务所使用的品牌,也称“局院地产”。中国建筑旗下共有8个工程局,均涉足房地产业务,被称为“中建八子”。

两者共同构成了“中建系”。

近几年,“中建系”不仅在土地市场四处出击,频繁获取高价地,销售规模也不断攀升。2023年,“中建系”实现合约销售额4514亿元,合约销售面积1858万平方米,同比分别增长12.4%和7.9%。

在当年的年报中,中国建筑表示,“销售额逆势增长、居行业首位。”

但值得注意的是,这一年,保利发展实现签约金额4222.37亿元,签约面积2386.12万平方米。保利集团旗下另一家地产上市平台保利置业,实现全口径合约销售金额536亿元,销售面积225.2万平方米。两者合计,无论从销售金额和销售面积,均超过了中建。

因此,“行业首位”的说法也引发了一定的争议。

到2024年,中建终于后来居上,其房地产业务实现销售额4219亿元,同比下降6.5%。同期,保利发展实现销售额3230亿元,降幅达到23.5%;保利置业则实现销售额542亿元。两者合计,比中建少了400多亿。

但在2024年的年报中,中国建筑反而低调了许多,仅表示,“地产业务保持行业领先”。

在“中建系”的销售构成中,中海地产始终占半数以上。2024年,中海地产的权益销售额为2857.5亿元,按照年报的说法,“位居行业第一”。

在“中建系”内部的赛马机制下,局院地产也不遑多让。根据中指研究院的数据,2024年,中建三局旗下房地产品牌的中建壹品,实现销售额506亿元,排进了规模榜前二十;中建东孚(中建八局旗下)销售425亿元,排名第22位。中建智地(中建一局旗下)、中建玖合(中建二局旗下)的销售额均超过了200亿元。

布局地产背后

近几年,房地产业进入深度调整期,新房市场规模缩水,行业利润率下滑,企业业绩缩表成为常态。在此背景下,“中建系”凭借强大的央企背景和主动出击的策略,“逆向”加码房地产,成为为数不多的“异类”。

2024年,中国建筑新购土地75宗,新增土地储备882万平方米,总购地金额1385亿元。几项指标均为行业第一。

根据中指研究院的统计,去年仅中海地产就斥资688亿元拿地,新增货值1777亿元,双双位居行业第一。在该机构的榜单中,去年中建壹品的拿地金额和新增货值也都排进了行业前十。

今年第一季度,中海地产斥资273亿元拿地,继续位居行业第一。

分析人士普遍指出,按照当前的趋势,如无重大变化,“中建系”的行业老大地位还将持续一段时间。

在行业竞争激烈、利润率远不如从前的调整期,中建为何逆势加码房地产?

上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进向21世纪经济报道记者表示,在中国建筑的业务构成中,房地产的营收和利润贡献仍然是不可替代的。

中国建筑共有基建、房建、地产、设计四项主要业务,但设计业务的体量相对较小,公司业绩主要由前三项业务所贡献。

从收入构成上看,地产业务向来不挑大梁,近几年的占比均不足20%。但相比其他两项主业,地产业务的毛利率较高,对利润的贡献较为显著。2020年,中国建筑的地产业务毛利率为26.2%,高于房建的6.7%和基建的8.5%,这也使得地产业务以16.6%的营收占比,贡献了41.7%的毛利润。

此后几年,受行业大势影响,地产业务的毛利率不断下滑,到2024年已降至17.3%,但仍显著高于房建的7.4%和基建的10.0%。去年,中国建筑的地产业务营收占比为14%,仍然贡献了25.4%的毛利润。

作为全球最大的建筑企业,中国建筑的业绩很少出现波动。但在2024年,公司的营业总收入2.19万亿元,同比下降3.46%,出现了多年来的首次下降;归母净利润下降14.9%,为最近四年的新低。

中国建筑并未解释其业绩下滑的主因。一位建筑行业从业者向21世纪经济报道记者表示,市场竞争加剧,成本上升,以及结款难度增加,都在影响建筑企业业绩表现。他认为,这些因素将在未来一段时间内持续存在。

在此背景下,作为利润率最高的业务,地产的重要性不言而喻。

严跃进表示,由于产业链的关联度较高,不少基建企业旗下都有地产业务,但其能力建设和发展情况各不相同。近几年,民营房企遭遇了较大的生存挑战,央国企的比较优势凸显。基建央企布局房地产,能够更好地发挥这些优势,并弥补建筑业务的利润损失。

他表示,就中国建筑而言,其地产业务的基础较好,发展思路一直很明确。在房地产业的调整期,公司正迎来弯道超车,甚至扩大优势的机会。但和其他房地产企业一样,如何应对房地产业利润率下滑的趋势,仍是公司要面临的挑战。

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