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  本报记者孟珂

  4月16日,国家统计局发布数据显示,初步核算,一季度国内生产总值318758亿元,按不变价格计算,同比增长5.4%,比上年四季度环比增长1.2%。

  “今年以来,国际环境变乱交织,不利影响加深,国内结构调整阵痛仍在释放,不少企业经营比较困难。面对复杂的局面,党中央科学决策,全国各地区、各部门认真贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神和政府工作报告部署,团结一心、奋发有为,加快落实积极有为的宏观政策,有力有效应对外部挑战,一季度,国民经济起步平稳、开局良好,高质量发展向新向好。”当日在国务院新闻办公室举行的新闻发布会上,国家统计局副局长盛来运介绍2025年一季度国民经济运行情况时表示。

  民生银行首席经济学家温彬在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,总体来看,一季度存量政策和增量政策共同显效,各地区、各部门积极抢抓开局,叠加出口向好等因素,共同推动经济开局良好。

  东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青告诉《证券日报》记者,受一揽子增量政策持续推进、外需保持较强韧性等有效带动,一季度宏观经济保持较强增长动能,GDP同比增速达到5.4%,超出市场普遍预期。这背后主要是一季度内需全面发力,成为推动经济实现“开门红”的主要动力,同时出口保持较快正增长。

  从统计数据来看,一季度宏观经济呈现以下特点:一是增长稳中有升。一季度,生产需求指标加快回升,全部工业增加值增长6.3%,比去年全年回升0.6个百分点;服务业增加值增长5.3%,回升0.3个百分点;固定资产投资增长4.2%,比去年全年回升1个百分点;社会消费品零售总额增长4.6%,回升1.1个百分点。

  二是就业收入总体稳定。一季度,全国城镇调查失业率指标是5.3%,全国居民人均可支配收入扣除物价因素,实际增长5.6%,与GDP增长基本同步。

  三是国际收支状况良好。一季度,全球经济增长动能偏弱,但我国进出口保持基本平稳的态势,一季度货物贸易进出口同比增长1.3%,出口增长6.9%,显示了中国出口的韧性。

  四是高质量发展向新向好。一季度,规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长9.7%。绿色发展持续推进。一季度,非化石能源消费占能源消费总量的比重同比提高了1.5个百分点。

  五是市场活力信心增强。3月份,制造业采购经理人指数为50.5%,比2月份上升了0.3个百分点,连续两个月回升。3月末,人民币贷款余额同比增长7.4%,社会融资规模存量同比增长8.4%,有力有效支撑了经济增长回升向好。

  盛来运表示,去年9月26日,中共中央政治局会议果断部署了一揽子增量政策,对稳定经济发挥了关键作用,中央经济工作会议部署要求宏观政策更加积极有为,今年以来政策措施加力扩围,存量政策和增量政策共同显效,推动今年一季度经济开局良好。

  “一季度GDP表现超出预期与多重因素密不可分。”温彬分析称,一是出口继续畅旺。二是政策加力扩围。以旧换新政策持续拉动耐用品消费,设备更新政策推动工器具购置增速创历史新高,政府债加快发行托底基建投资,一系列稳地产政策推动市场出现“小阳春”,发展新质生产力带动高技术行业快速发展等,这些都凸显出政策的积极效果。三是市场活力信心增强。消费者信心指数持续回升,显示市场主体对未来预期有明显改善,有利于提升经济内生增长动能。

  展望下一阶段,温彬认为,在外部挑战加剧的背景下,促消费将成今年工作重中之重。除了落实现有的各项政策之外,以旧换新补贴规模扩大并纳入服务消费等增量政策也已进入决策视野。随着各项促消费措施发力显效,消费增长动能有望继续改善。

  王青也预计,接下来扩内需会显著加力,新一批增量政策有望出台,核心将是大力提振国内消费,通过降息降准加大金融对实体经济的支持力度,以及进一步推动房地产市场止跌回稳。这意味着二季度内需对经济增长的贡献率会进一步提高。

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  • 警方通报浙江队外援坠亡:排除刑案 加拿大央行维持利率不变 女生以为挖到超大竹笋结果被嘲笑 世卫组织:各国达成协议应对大流行病 杜润旺挥拳放倒迪亚洛被吹违体 梅州客场2-2追平浙江 上海海港4-1送津门虎赛季首败 中方回应暂停接收波音飞机传言 女教师上海街头怒怼“偷拍老法师” #外援坠亡后比赛照常中超是否业余#