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  汇通财经APP讯——据路孚特,联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)最新报告显示,2025年全球经济增速可能骤降至2.3%,较2024年的2.8%出现明显下滑。这一预测值不仅远低于疫情前水平,更预示着世界经济正步入衰退通道。报告特别强调,当前经济放缓的速度和程度都令人担忧,可能创下近十年来最疲软的增长表现。

  贸易战成最大风险源

  报告将矛头直指近期急剧升温的全球贸易紧张局势。4月初特朗普政府突然宣布的全面关税政策,特别是对亚洲大国商品征收的145%惩罚性关税,被视为引发市场动荡的关键因素。虽然部分经济体的关税措施被暂缓执行,但这一系列保护主义举措已经严重打击了投资者信心,导致跨国企业纷纷推迟投资和招聘计划。

  多重危机叠加发酵

  UNCTAD警告称,当前全球经济正面临本世纪以来最严峻的政策不确定性。贸易保护主义的蔓延正在破坏全球供应链体系,国际贸易流动可能遭遇系统性阻塞。报告特别指出,美国经济衰退风险正在快速累积,而发展中国家受到的影响可能更为严重。这种连锁反应正在形成恶性循环,进一步抑制全球经济活动。

  紧急呼吁政策调整

  面对日益恶化的经济前景,UNCTAD紧急建议将最不发达国家排除在关税清单之外。报告分析显示,对这些脆弱经济体实施贸易限制不仅收效甚微,反而会加剧全球经济的失衡。专家强调,各国需要加强政策协调,避免单边主义措施继续升级,否则2.3%的增长预测可能还会进一步下调。

  结语:十字路口的抉择

  在全球经济面临重大转折的关键时刻,UNCTAD的报告无疑敲响了警钟。随着贸易战阴云持续笼罩,各国政策制定者正面临严峻考验:是继续滑向保护主义的深渊,还是携手重振多边贸易体系?这个选择将决定未来数年全球经济的发展轨迹。

  黄金作为传统避险资产,通常在经济前景恶化、地缘政治风险升高时受到追捧。若投资者对衰退的担忧持续发酵,资金可能加速流入黄金市场,支撑金价进一步上行。

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