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在没有暑期旅行计划的受访者中,近三分之二(65%)表示钱是主要原因。关税政策和担心美国经济可能衰退,导致更多美国人采取观望态度。

特朗普政府的关税政策和对美国经济衰退的担忧,导致更多美国人对暑期旅行采取观望态度。

消费金融平台Bankrate的一项调查显示,仅有46%的受访美国人表示计划暑期旅行,远低于去年的53%。

美银近期的报告也显示,美国今年至今,住宿、航班、旅游活动低于往年,美银认为这是消费者信心下降的体现。不仅如此,来自加拿大和欧洲的游客——传统赴美国际游客重要来源—也同样走低。

仅46%美国人计划暑期旅行

Bankrate的上述调查中,在那些表示没有暑期旅行计划的受访者中,近三分之二(65%)表示钱是主要原因。有趣的是,其中,表示日常生活开支高是主要原因的人占比达到68%,更高于表示旅行本身开支高的64%。此外,表示对暑期旅行计划“不确定”的受访人数也有所增加,从2024年的18%增加到今年的23%。

这项调查针对2238名美国成年人,主要集中在3月中旬进行。值得一提的是,当时,美国总统特朗普还尚未宣布所谓“对等关税”。

Bankrate的高级行业分析师罗斯曼(TedRossman)直言,最近的关税政策和美国经济可能因此陷入衰退的担忧,导致更多美国人对暑假旅行,采取观望态度。“我们看到更广泛的裁员和物价上涨的可能性,这让许多人感到不安。”他称,最近几周消费者信心持续下降。此外,由于对未来的不安,表示计划通过借款、欠债方式为暑期旅行融资的受访者比例,也从去年的36%降至29%。

除了上述原因,约23%的受访者表示他们仅仅是因为对旅游不感兴趣。更多受访者(从10%升至16%)由于美国企业继续推动远程工作者重返办公室,找不到时间旅游。一些美国大型企业为了推动重返办公室,近期颁布了最后通牒。比如,谷歌近期表示,仍在远程工作的员工,必须每周至少3天到办公室工作,否则就将失去工作。

还值得一提的是,有15%的受访者表示担心飞行安全,因而不想旅游。此前,美国接连发生了多起备受瞩目的航空事件,包括美国航空公司(AmericanAirlines)的一架喷气式客机和一架军用直升机在空中相撞,还包括波音公司挥之不去的质量控制问题。

根据数字分析公司QuantumMetric的一项调查,五分之一的旅客表示,他们如今在预订航班前,会对可能乘坐的飞机进行更多的研究。55%的旅客表示,由于最近有关飞机和航空公司的新闻,他们改变了预订航班的方式。

该调查没有直接提及波音公司,但自2024年1月5日以来,从质量控制到商业精神,波音的各类问题始终占据媒体头条。2024年1月5日,美国阿拉斯加航空公司一架波音737MAX9型客机从波特兰起飞后不久在空中发生事故,随即紧急返航,机舱后段一扇可以用作紧急出口的舱门半空中脱落。

数字分析平台QuantumMetric的全球副总裁兼旅行和酒店战略主管哈维(DanielleHarvey)表示,这些“故事”将消费者的注意力引向了波音公司,而这是旅行者过去没有注意到的。许多预定航班的游客会做更多研究,尽量避开波音飞机。

美国银行3月的一份报告也表示,今年美国在国内住宿、航班和旅游活动方面的起步较慢。报告称:“最近美国消费者信心的下降,可能会转化为人们对制定旅行计划的犹豫不决,或者考虑取消旅行计划,以削减开支。”美银还表示,美国部分地区的恶劣天气,也可能会令美国人减少旅行。

与任何类型的消费一样,报告显示,美国低收入家庭削减旅行支出的幅度最大,较富裕家庭可能转而选择国际旅游,但不会削减旅行开支。

报告援引了美国经济分析局(BureauofEconomicAnalysis)的旅游卫星账户数据称,旅游业约占美国国内生产总值(GDP)的3%,2023年时雇佣了约650万人。

赴美国际旅客兴趣减弱

不仅美国国内旅客,美国旅游业也不太可能从国际游客那里获得提振,因为数据显示,鉴于特朗普的贸易政策和许多外国人在美国边境口岸被拘留,国际旅客访美的兴趣也在减弱。

其中,由于特朗普直接通过贸易限制和间接暗示加拿大可能成为美国“第51个州”等种种动作,作为传统美国国际游客主要来源之一的加拿大游客降幅最为显著。

美国海关和边境保护局(U.S.CustomsandBorderProtection)的游客数据显示,2月加拿大赴美游客人数同比下降12.5%,3月下降18%。美国商务部下属的国家旅行和旅游局(NationalTravelandTourismOffice)表示,来自西欧的游客也有所减少,尤其是英国和德国等传统“主力军”,赴美游客在3月同比均下降了约30%。西欧赴美游客在3月整体上也下降了12%,创下除疫情期间外,有相关记录以来的最大单月降幅之一。

STRGlobal的高级副总裁兼CoStarGroup酒店分析总监弗瑞塔格(JanFreitag)称:“多个旅游业数据都显示美国经济放缓,还有很多行业轶事表明经济放缓的程度或比预期得更严重。”

美联航(UnitedAirlines)和达美航空(Delta)本月稍早发布了符合甚至超预期的一季度财报,但也都表示,鉴于旅行需求下降预期,2025年的业绩前景预计将更加疲软。

美联航还罕见地给出两种全年盈利预测:一个是维持1月时调整后每股收益(EPS)11.50~13.50美元的全年预期;另一个是假设美国经济陷入衰退,预计调整后的全年EPS介于7美元~9美元之间。

美联航的首席执行官柯比(ScottKirby)称:“我们业务最弱的地区是美国国内,第二弱的是加拿大。”由于今年以来需求下降,美联航和其他美国航空公司均已缩减了航班数量。美联航的首席商务官尼科拉(AndrewNocella)在电话财报会议上称,一季度,欧洲始发的美国航班预订量同比下降了6%,加拿大预订量下降了9%。

罗斯曼也称:“美国航空公司纷纷警示需求下降和利润下降。由于政治原因,我们听到一些国际游客对赴美旅游存在潜在担忧。”

  周五,欧股早盘走高,在贸易不确定性持续的背景下,投资者密切关注各公司的财报。

  泛欧斯托克600指数上涨了0.2%。从地区来看,英国富时100指数持平,德国DAX指数高开0.2%,法国CAC40指数上涨0.5%。

  到目前为止,斯托克欧洲600指数已实现三连涨,本周累计上涨2.4%。

  周五,企业财报同样备受关注。航空发动机制造商赛峰集团业绩超预期后,其股价上涨3.1%。与此同时,国防承包商萨博公司(SaabAB)未达到营收预期,股价下跌1%。

  在亚洲,股市上涨。此前,华尔街因科技股反弹实现三连涨,投资者对贸易形势进行评估,原因是美国降低了关裞言论的调门。

  受华尔街连续第三个交易日上涨以及谷歌母公司字母表(Alphabet)最新季度业绩的影响,标普500指数期货周五早盘也走高。与标普500指数挂钩的期货上涨0.45%,纳斯达克100指数期货上涨0.51%。与道琼斯工业平均指数挂钩的期货则在平盘线附近徘徊。

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