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  布伦特原油与美国WTI原油周五收高,但二者本周均录得跌幅。供应过剩及中国外交部发言人否认中美正在进行关税磋商,令油价承压。此前特朗普宣称谈判正在进行。

  周五,布伦特原油结算价为每桶66.87美元,上涨32美分,涨幅0.48%。美国6月WTI原油结算价为每桶63.02美元,上涨23美分,涨幅0.37%。

  但本周布伦特原油累计下跌约2%,WTI原油下跌约3%。

  关于石油输出国组织及其盟友(OPEC+)可能连续第二个月加速增产的消息,预示着未来原油供应增加。

  俄外长拉夫罗夫称俄乌停战谈判“取得进展”,若战争结束将释放更多俄油入市,此番发言也指向未来供应增长。作为OPEC+三大产油国之一,俄罗斯若恢复原油出口,可能打破当前脆弱的供需平衡。美国与沙特的实际产能政策将成为下一阶段油价关键风向标。

  美元走强,进一步压制以美元计价的原油。

  LSEG高级分析师AnhPham指出:“OPEC+供应过剩忧虑持续,叠加贸易紧张局势下的需求不确定性,共同构成了油价下行压力。美国库存增加和美元走强更令市场雪上加霜。”

  特朗普称他希望“立即”与乌克兰就稀土问题签署协议。

  特朗普在TruthSocial上说,乌克兰在最终矿产协议上签字“至少晚了三周”。

  他表示,俄乌之间的和平协议谈判“进展顺利”。

  挪威主权财富基金是全球规模最大的主权财富基金,规模约为1.5万亿美元。在2025年第一季度,该基金亏损约349亿欧元。主要原因是科技行业股价下跌以及美国股市表现疲软。

  总体而言,股票投资组合的价值下跌了1.6%,而固定收益证券和房地产则略有增值。基金经理尼古拉・坦根(NicolaiTangen)称这是“市场波动剧烈的一个季度”。

  美国股票占股票投资组合的近60%,其表现明显逊于欧洲股票。MSCI美国指数下跌了5.2%,而MSCI欧洲指数涨幅近10%。然而,由于欧洲股票在该基金中仅占22%的份额,它们无法弥补这一损失。造成亏损的主要原因是苹果、微软和英伟达等大型科技股——它们加起来占该基金份额的近17%。

  尽管出现了上述情况,该基金仍打算反其道而行之,未来将加大对美国股票的投资力度。坦根在一次新闻发布会上宣布了这一计划。

  在过去的18个月里,该基金对美国股票的持仓权重低于其基准指数富时环球全股指数(FTSEGlobalAllCap)——后者约63%的份额为美国股票。尽管目前其他投资者正在撤离美国市场,但该基金现在打算弥补这一差距。

  凭借其巨大的市场影响力——全球发行的所有股票中约有1.5%归该基金所有——挪威主权财富基金有可能借此引发市场转向。

  这一举动被视为一个战略信号:该基金并非受短期波动的影响,而是从长期来看,看好美国经济的复苏。

  欧洲主要股指收盘集体上涨,德国DAX30指数涨0.81%,报22242.45点;英国富时100指数涨0.09%,报8415.25点;法国CAC40指数涨0.45%,报7536.26点;欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.80%,报5156.05点。

专题:政治局会议重磅定调

  中国经济,正频频让人感到“超预期”。

  一季度经济同比增速5.4%,超出了很多国内外机构的预测,而过去往往在四月底召开的中央政治局会议,来得也比往年更早一些。

  时间本身也是信号。

  当前,经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固,外部冲击影响加大,在这样的国内外情况下,及时召开会议并向社会传递应对当前形势的决策判断与工作部署,可以帮助各界更好认识当前经济形势,统一思想认识,也可以更好凝聚共识。

  细看中央政治局会议新闻通稿,多处表述之前都很少见。比如这句,“统筹国内经济发展和国际经贸斗争”。和2018年的“经贸摩擦”相比,“经贸斗争”反映出中央对当前国际形势的严峻性、长期性和艰巨性的最新判断,也正基于这样的判断,会议提出要“强化底线思维,充分备足预案,扎实做好经济工作。”

  以变应变。

  会议提出,“要着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期”,也蕴含不少新意。

  “稳就业”排在首位,“对受关税影响较大的企业,提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例”,表明在外部冲击加大的情况下,对就业这个民生之首的高度重视。

  稳企业、稳市场,“多措并举帮扶困难企业”,透露出宏观决策对微观经济运行主体的关切度在进一步提升。在去年9月以来一揽子增量政策和存量政策的作用下,经济呈现向好态势,社会信心持续提振,此次再提“稳预期”,表明在未来一个时期,依然是宏观调控的重要目标。

  关于宏观政策定调,保持了和中央经济工作会议一致的表述——更加积极有为的宏观政策,但在前面,加上了“加紧实施”的要求,同样,在“更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策”前,加上了一个“用好用足”,强调出政策落地的紧迫性。

  政策落地节奏确实在加快。

  就在4月24日,今年首期超长期特别国债正式招标发行,总量达到了1210亿元,根据有关方面的消息,接下来,地方政府债券也会保持较快发行节奏,为全年财政加力腾出空间。

  后续政策还留有充足“后手”。

  此次中央政治局会议明确提出,将“根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策,加强超常规逆周期调节”。在提及货币政策继续使用了“适时降准降息”的表述,表明降准降息要“相机决策”,不会把货币政策的子弹一次打完。与此同时,创设新的结构性货币政策工具,设立新型政策性金融工具,支持科技创新等新提法受到市场高度关注,据记者了解,相关政策举措已在紧锣密鼓制定当中。

  外需变动加剧的情况下,内需的重要性已无需多言。中央政治局会议提出,要提高中低收入群体收入,大力发展服务消费,增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用。

  不光有政策取向上的重视,更有实打实的应对举措。会议特别提到,要尽快清理消费领域限制性措施,设立服务消费与养老再贷款。加大资金支持力度,扩围提质实施“两新”政策,加力实施“两重”建设。

  既以变应变,又以不变应万变。

  中央政治局会议提出,坚定不移办好自己的事,坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放,这两句话,体现出中国在面对世界百年未有之大变局的定力,也是中国在单边主义、保护主义日益肆虐于国际社会时再次表明的坚决立场。

  做好自己的事,圆满完成“十四五”规划目标任务,为“十五五”良好开局打牢基础。截至目前,“十四五”规划102项重大工程涉及的5000多个具体项目中,已完成规划任务目标的占比已达到99%。

  做好自己的事,用深化改革开放的办法解决发展中的问题。

  就在本周四,新版市场准入负面清单发布,根据国家发展改革委的统计,新版清单和2018年的第一版相比,事项压减了约30%。很多限制性管理措施被取消,很多区域性壁垒在破除,全国统一大市场建设正在加快。

  同样也是在本周,国务院新闻办发布会上详解了中国推进服务业开放的155项试点任务,电信、医疗、金融等领域对外资开放力度之大,举世瞩目。

  以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。这就是中国给出的破局之道。

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