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  财联社4月17日讯(编辑潇湘)如果要论谁该为昨夜美股市场的大跌“背锅”,那么美国总统特朗普和美联储主席鲍威尔,或许可以各自分上一半……

  是的!这一届的华尔街交易员们的工作似乎很难:一边需要应对不断“兴风作浪”的特朗普,另一边又有一个不愿向白宫低头、对市场动荡始终无动于衷的鲍威尔。

  而这样的“二重奏组合”对金融市场的负面影响,在昨夜无疑体现得尤为明显:

  截至收盘,道指全天下跌了699.57点,跌幅为1.73%,报39669.39点;纳指跌516.01点,跌幅为3.07%,报16307.16点;标普500指数跌120.93点,跌幅为2.24%,报5275.70点。

  可以看到,纳指在隔夜盘中的最大跌幅曾一度高达了4.5%,直到收盘前最后30分钟,买家才有所回归。

  其中,大型科技股在这一天遭受了重击。英伟达股价收跌6.9%,Meta、谷歌母公司Alphabet和特斯拉等也均普跌。

注:高盛TMT超大型公司指数近日走势

  “恐慌指数”VIX则重新飙升至了30以上:

  交易员不难察觉的是,特朗普发动的全球贸易战的连锁反应,目前正越来越多地同时在众多行业中显现,而在此之前,美国股市已被其反复无常的贸易政策扰动了数周。

  在英伟达等与全球供应链高度相关的风向标企业,纷纷警告其底线受到冲击后,科技股昨夜受到的打击尤为严重。而就连航空公司们也开始表示,他们正在为不确定的夏季旅游旺季做准备。

  奢侈品巨头路威酩轩集团旗下珠宝子公司、总部位于罗马的宝格丽公司首席执行官Jean-ChristopheBabin表示,对于美国的关税政策,不确定性越来越多。“(一件事)昨天也许是真的,今天便不再是真的,至于明天会是什么,谁也不知道。”

  与此同时,美联储眼下所处的“观望模式”,似乎也令投资者很难在央行货币政策层面获得慰藉。

  美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示,美联储将等待更多有关经济走向的数据后再调整利率。但他同时也警告称,特朗普的关税政策可能会使通胀和就业进一步偏离联储的目标。

  这是自特朗普上周暂停部分较为严厉的对等关税措施以来,鲍威尔首次发表讲话。他指出,最近几周的市场波动是特朗普政府贸易政策剧烈转变的合理结果,而非是需要美联储作出反应的压力迹象。他在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表演讲时表示:“目前,我们最好等待更清晰的形势,然后再考虑调整我们的政策立场。”

  整体而言,鲍威尔眼下显然仍把控制通胀摆在了更为优先的位置。鲍威尔暗示,如果通胀与就业目标出现矛盾,美联储可能会优先考虑控制通胀。“没有价格稳定,我们无法实现长期且广泛惠及美国人的强劲劳动力市场,”他说。

  这无疑意味着美联储眼下依然并不急于降息。而当被问及是否存在“美联储看跌期权”(即市场大跌时美联储会出手干预)时,鲍威尔也否认了这一说法。他解释道:“市场正面临高度不确定性,这意味着波动性会上升。但话虽如此,市场运行有序,表现得基本符合预期。”

  从利率市场的定价看,目前业内人士对美联储6月降息的概率预期,已经回到了特朗普4月2日的“解放日”之前——虽然交易员们仍认为6月大概率会有一次降息,但之前曾甚嚣尘上的5月或紧急降息预期已荡然无存。

注:4月以来市场对于美联储6月降息的预期

  在隔夜鲍威尔发表讲话之后,美股也明显扩大了日内的跌幅。

  富国银行投资研究所全球投资策略主管保罗·克里斯托弗表示,“人们原本期待美联储表示我们将降息,但鲍威尔表示我们需要对此进行研究,这令人失望。鲍威尔确实谈论了失业问题,但他并没有谈论美联储将如何通过降息来解决问题。”

  BRileyWealthManagement首席市场策略师ArtHogan则指出,“过去几天市场表现曾相当不错,但有关英伟达和科技股的所有消息都导致市场普遍遭遇抛售,股市承压。所以一开始人们就处于一种消极的环境下,而鲍威尔的表态无疑会火上浇油。”

  颇为值得一提的是,周三除了美股的跌势外,美元和黄金的走势无疑也值得跨资产领域的投资者留意。

  彭博美元指数在周三进一步跌至了去年10月以来的最低水平。IURCapital董事总经理GarethRyan表示:“对美国风险资产的情绪,显示出长期受损的诸多迹象。”

注:过往一年彭博美元指数表现

  而单日暴涨了逾110美元的黄金,则迎来了自2023年10月以来表现最为强势的一天。

注:本周前三天黄金价格走势

  对于投资者而言,特朗普试图打造的美国“黄金时代”虽如海市蜃楼般虚幻,但资本市场上的黄金强周期,却着实已显露无疑。

注:今年以来黄金价格已累计上涨逾20% 新闻结尾 洪荒之帝巫,提升农业效率灌溉系统芙芙助力现代农业发展!的相关文章
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